Who would have been Bush Sr.'s VP if Reagan was assassinated in 1981?

[NoTrump]

Who would have been Bush Sr.'s VP if Reagan was assassinated in 1981?

Also, how would the 1984 election as well as later elections turn out in this scenario?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It certainly wouldn't have been Quayle as in 1981 he was 34-year old newly-elected Freshman Senator.

It also probably wouldn't have been Ford as Bush would have appointed him to the inevitable commission investigating the assassination.

Other than that, there are a wide number of plausible choices.

[Kingpoleon]

Howard Baker, James Buckley, Barry Goldwater(Sr./Jr.), Mark Hatfield, or Gerald Ford. He would need someone who can either unite the party or bring Reagan supporters in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Howard Baker, James Buckley, Barry Goldwater(Sr./Jr.), Mark Hatfield, or Gerald Ford. He would need someone who can either unite the party or bring Reagan supporters in.

Baker became Senate Majority Leader in 1981, and I doubt he'd give up that position to become VP.  Same for Hatfield, another powerful Senator (chairman of Appropriations) at that time.  It's also hard to see Ford agreeing to become an appointed VP for the second time after having been President himself.  Buckley's an interesting possibility (I didn't realize he was still alive until googling just now!) as is Goldwater Sr.  I don't think Jr. had the stature to be considered at that point. 

If you want someone to appeal to Reagan's supporters, another conservative that comes to mind is Jack Kemp.  Or for someone to unite the party, one possibility might be Elliot Richardson (the former "Secretary of Everything"), a well-respected moderate with extensive government experience.

I don't see much changing in the 1984 election.  Bush/whoever would still likely win in a landslide.  But 1988 gets interesting, though, because Bush wouldn't be able to run again; he'd have filled more than two years of Reagan's term plus his own full term.   His VP would be an obvious candidate for the Republican nomination, depending on age.  Goldwater Sr. would be 79, and might even have stepped aside as VP in '84.  Buckley, Hatfield, Richardson, and maybe Baker might be too old as well -- although they're all roughly contemporaries of Bush, and age didn't stop him from running in OTL.   Bob Dole, who also ran that year in OTL, would certainly be in the mix. 

Note: I'm not being ageist here (being a senior citizen myself ), just thinking that the GOP might prefer a younger candidate or risk being perceived as a party of old men if they had a third consecutive older candidate following Reagan and Bush.

The Democrats had a slew of candidates that year, and would probably have at least as many in this situation.  Perhaps Mario Cuomo, who was perceived as a very strong candidate but chose not to run in OTL, gets in.  Assuming the economy was as strong as it was in OTL and there were no unexpected problems caused by having Bush in office rather than Reagan, the GOP is probably still favored in 1988.  But if the Democrats nominated Cuomo, or indeed anyone but Dukakis, it would be more competitive than in OTL.

[dw93]

Paul Laxalt, former Governor of Nevada and then Senator from Nevada who was a friend of Reagan's would be a good pick. Other than that, I'd go with Kemp. You need a conservative to get Reagan supporters behind Bush.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Paul Laxalt, former Governor of Nevada and then Senator from Nevada who was a friend of Reagan's would be a good pick. Other than that, I'd go with Kemp. You need a conservative to get Reagan supporters behind Bush.

Bush might be leery of Laxalt, as there had been long-swirling rumors about him having possible ties to organized crime in Nevada.  (I hasten to add that none of these were ever proven, and in fact Laxalt won a libel suit against a newspaper in the 1980s for claiming such ties existed.)

[Wakie77]

There is no law which requires a VP taking over as President to nominate a new VP.  But considering that Tip O'Neill would then be in line to become President it is likely HW Bush would nominate someone who could quickly and easily be confirmed.  Gerald Ford seems like a possible option as (1) he was tight with HW Bush, (2) he still had a lot of friends in Congress, and (3) as former President his nomination would likely sail through.  Now in '84 when HW Bush runs for re-election he would probably add someone different.  If his nomination of Quayle in '88 is indicative of anything he would probably select someone who is relatively moderate with limited experience from the Industrial Midwest.  John Danforth comes to mind.

[NoTrump]

Paul Laxalt, former Governor of Nevada and then Senator from Nevada who was a friend of Reagan's would be a good pick. Other than that, I'd go with Kemp. You need a conservative to get Reagan supporters behind Bush.

Bush might be leery of Laxalt, as there had been long-swirling rumors about him having possible ties to organized crime in Nevada.  (I hasten to add that none of these were ever proven, and in fact Laxalt won a libel suit against a newspaper in the 1980s for claiming such ties existed.)

One would think that Laxalt's selection would have some propaganda value for Bush, no? After all, just like with Scalia's elevation to the U.S. Supreme Court in 1986 (which appears to have pleased Italian-Americans), Laxalt's elevation to the Vice Presidency could convince White Americans from underrepresented groups that the new Bush Administration is serious about courting them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There is no law which requires a VP taking over as President to nominate a new VP.  But considering that Tip O'Neill would then be in line to become President it is likely HW Bush would nominate someone who could quickly and easily be confirmed.  Gerald Ford seems like a possible option as (1) he was tight with HW Bush, (2) he still had a lot of friends in Congress, and (3) as former President his nomination would likely sail through.  Now in '84 when HW Bush runs for re-election he would probably add someone different.  If his nomination of Quayle in '88 is indicative of anything he would probably select someone who is relatively moderate with limited experience from the Industrial Midwest.  John Danforth comes to mind.

Um, yes there is.  Section 2 of the 25th Amendment says:

"Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress."

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It also says that the Senate is supposed to give advise and consent on Presidential nominations.  If there s no deadline, then there really isn't a requirement to act.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It also says that the Senate is supposed to give advise and consent on Presidential nominations.  If there s no deadline, then there really isn't a requirement to act.

In the case of a vacancy at VP, I think there would be political and public pressure on the President to put forward a nomination in a timely fashion.

[FairBol]

It certainly wouldn't have been Quayle as in 1981 he was 34-year old newly-elected Freshman Senator.

It also probably wouldn't have been Ford as Bush would have appointed him to the inevitable commission investigating the assassination.

Other than that, there are a wide number of plausible choices.

Good question.  Strom Thurmond would've been next in the line of succession, as he was the Senate PPT at the time (and probably would've been appointed Acting VP by Bush, although Sec. of State Alexander Haig was younger....I think).  As for who would've been Bush's running mate in '84, I believe it would've been Bob Dole.  

[HillGoose]

Anyone thought about Lamar Alexander?

[catographer]

Kemp, Dole, or Ford would've been top picks.