538 district maps series - California

[Torie]

What is the reason that the map was not in the LA area turned clockwise, so CA-35 is shoved out of (or more out of) Brea, CA-26 is shoved out of Claremont, and CA-53 chops less into Riverside County? Avoiding municipal chops or the VRA?

I don't have notes from 2012 that give me a definitive answer, and the map predates codification of the muon rules (microchops were still in play then). I suspect that the VRA played a role along with city chops.

The map would be different with the current muon rules. I put forward the county grouping schemes above to see if commenters had a preference.

A: LAC intact, OC only links to SD, SD or Imp link to Riv, SB link to Kern;
B: LAC link to Kern, OC only links to SD, SD or Imp link to Riv;
C: LAC-OC link, LAC-SB link, Riv only links to SB, SB link to Kern;
D: SB+Riv intact together, LAC-OC link, LAC-Kern link, Kern-Inyo-Mono link

That perhaps is closer to the map that I preferred. It's been a long time now.

So which of A, B, C or D do you prefer? I'm hoping Oryxslayer weighs in, too.

It depends on how clean the chops are, and the degree that muni chops are involved, but ceteris paribus, I like option A the best.

[muon2]

I took a look at a possible Hispanic district within SD county. If I put all of Bonita, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, National City (and Lincoln Acres), South San Diego, and the southern parts of central San Diego  in a CD I can get up to 55.3% HVAP.

This district would include all of AD 80 and half of AD 79. From the data in the CRC report the citizenship rate for HVAP is 56% and is 93% for non-HVAP. That means the HCVAP in the all SW SD district would project to 42.6%. Maybe 42.6% would fly today, but that would depend on the Hispanic minority getting a candidate through the top-two CA system. That's nominally harder than winning a Dem primary then beating the Pub with white Dem votes, since the Hispanic candidate of choice could well face a white Dem in the general election.

BTW here's the CRC report justification for CA-51. Note that it is not considered a VRA district. Note also that Chula Vista and San Diego are conveniently chopped so as to give CA-51 an HCVAP majority of 50.99% (under the guise of population equality). I note that if Chula Vista were not chopped it would not be an HCVAP majority CD.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Torie]

I agree that those numbers are too low to have a reasonably reliable performing minority CD (45% maybe would be the place to start having a real discussion). But the VRA as you said does not require that. But that is where the issue comes in that we discussed under the Muon2 rules. One can create a performing minority CD if there is a bipartisan agreement to do so. In the real world, I understand what the commission did. Hopefully after the next census, the reach to Imperial will not be so justified.

[muon2]

The interesting alternative is to forget about Imp+SD entirely. Link Imperial to eastern Riverside and a serious Hispanic influence district can be drawn. Then go with the 42% HCVAP SW SD district as a second influence district.

[Del Tachi]

GOP gerrymander because its also proportionate.

[publicunofficial]

I found the PVI's for the compact-counties map, for anyone interested:

CA-01 (Redding, Chico, Eureka) - R+7.1
CA-02 (Santa Rosa, San Rafael, Novato) - D+25.36
CA-03 (Vallejo, Antioch, Fairfield) - D+14.26
CA-04 (Roseville, Rocklin, Lake Tahoe) - R+8.53
CA-05 (Napa, Yuba City, Woodland) - D+9.51
CA-06 (Sacramento) - D+18.21
CA-07 (Elk Grove, Citrus Heights, Folsom) - D+2.82
CA-08 (Victorville, Hesperia, Redlands) - R+8.2
CA-09 (Stockton, Tracy, Manteca) - D+5.1
CA-10 (Modesto, Turlock, Merced) - D+1.41
CA-11 (Concord, Richmond, Walnut Creek) - D+21.3
CA-12 (San Francisco) - D+37.26
CA-13 (Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro) - D+40.2
CA-14 (San Francisco, Daly City, San Mateo) - D+26.12
CA-15 (Palo Alto, Livermore, Gilroy) - D+19.4
CA-16 (Merced, Clovis, Madera) - R+10.46
CA-17 (Hayward, Fremont, Dublin) - D+24.4
CA-18 (San Jose, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara) - D+23.13
CA-19 (San Jose) - D+25.39
CA-20 (Salinas, Santa Cruz, Monterey) - D+22.37
CA-21 (Fresno, Selma) - D+6.72
CA-22 (Hanford, Visalia, Porterville) - R+6.15
CA-23 (Bakersfield, Oildale, Ridgecrest) - R+10.62
CA-24 (Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria) - D+6.73
CA-25 (Palmdale, Lancaster, Santa Clarita) - D+0.87
CA-26 (Ventura, Oxnard, Thousand Oaks) - D+6.25
CA-27 (El Monte, Citrus, Temple City) - D+14.07
CA-28 (Glendale, Burbank, Pasadena) - D+21.06
CA-29 (Los Angeles, San Fernando) - D+25.63
CA-30 (Simi Valley, Los Angeles) - D+15.16
CA-31 (San Bernardino, Fontana) - D+18.59
CA-32 (Pomona, West Covina, La Puente) - D+18.83
CA-33 (Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Malibu) - D+25.19
CA-34 (Los Angeles) - D+36.28
CA-35 (Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, Chino) - D+4.17
CA-36 (Palm Springs, Coachella, El Centro) - D+6.85
CA-37 (Los Angeles) - D+41.17
CA-38 (Norwalk, Whittier) - D+19.56
CA-39 (Fullerton, Anaheim, Buena Park) - R+1.21
CA-40 (Los Angeles, South Gate, East Los Angeles) - D+39.05
CA-41 (Riverside, Moreno Valley) - D+8.23
CA-42 (Corona, Perris, San Jacinto) - R+4.87
CA-43 (Inglewood, Compton, Carson) - D+37.61
CA-44 (Torrance) - D+12.76
CA-45 (Irvine, Lake Forest, Mission Viejo) - R+0.74
CA-46 (Garden Grove, Santa Ana, Orange) - D+11.64
CA-47 (Long Beach) - D+19.09
CA-48 (Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach) - R+4.56
CA-49 (Oceanside, Temecula, San Clemente) - R+9.2
CA-50 (Escondido, El Cajon, San Marcos) - R+9.79
CA-51 (Chula Vista, Imperial Beach) - D+17.21
CA-52 (San Diego, Carlsbad, Vista) - D+4.53
CA-53 (San Diego, La Mesa) - D+15.99)


Their 15th district is very ugly, IMO. I don't think you can drive from one end to the other without crossing into multiple other districts.

[Dr. MB]

Highly competitive. Definitely need more swing districts.

[politicallefty]

I like the compact county borders map except for the way the far Northern part of the state is drawn. I'd rather swap some territory and put Humboldt and Del Norte in the same district with Mendocino and Sonoma. I remember that district being a point of contention on the commission a few years ago, but mostly whether to have the district break off part way down into Napa or to go all the way to the Golden Gate and exclude Santa Rosa.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I picked majority-minority. It seemed very compact and would make for more competitive democrat primaries split along ethnic lines in the many districts with no clear majority group. Thought it was interesting that one majority-minority district was fairly safe republican (39th, which would likely have a slim white majority electorate) and one majority hispanic district was R leaning competitive (22nd).