UK local elections, May 2018

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In May we're going to see the first local elections after the Humiliation Of Theresa May (as you may recall, the 2017 locals were when her spin was at its peak and Corbyn was about as mired as he has ever been).

The big draw will be in London. Now the last London elections were already pretty good for Labour, with its best results in a few decades and taking control of Hammersmith, Harrow, Croydon, Redbridge and Merton; apparently targets this time around will include Barnet, Tower Hamlets (from the Lutfur Raham aligned independent group), Hillingdon, Wandsworth, Westminster and the notorious Kensington and Chelsea council of Grenfell infamy.

There is also interfactional disputes to play around with, which we've seen most prominently in Haringey and their disputes over an urban regeneration scheme (watch out for other inner city strongly Labour councils like Camden and Lambeth having similar disputes).

The Lib Dems for their part see a strong opening in Kingston, with the governing Tories being potentially reduced to two or three wards in a particularly dreadful night (their leader is in a bit of Twitte drama atm). They also think they can take on Tory-controlled Richmond.

The Tories will mainly play defence, except from a possible attempt to take Sutton (currently Lib Dem). They are likely to lose across the board, with warnings of rump oppositions left in boroughs like Enfield, Ealing etc.

Outside of London, there will be plenty of councils up in halves or thirds.  Of the metropolitan  boroughs, Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle (all Labour) will be fully up (as will Hull, which is technically a "unitary authority" but who care?). Don't know enough about the specifics to give predictions in the district councils, but will probably look into them more deeply as year progresses.

[Bojicat]

Any sense on whether MAY's days are numbered far less than the run-up tally to May? Should we pun May 2018 as MAY DAY for MAY?

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Dunno. Trouble is, as precarious a position as May is in, there is no obvious shining knight in armour that is acceptable to both the majority of the Tory MPs and the membership. (And the Tory leadership, unlike Labour, needs to be narrowed down by parliamentarians so there is less chance of a Corbyn scenario.

[YL]

The big draw will be in London. Now the last London elections were already pretty good for Labour, with its best results in a few decades and taking control of Hammersmith, Harrow, Croydon, Redbridge and Merton; apparently targets this time around will include Barnet, Tower Hamlets (from the Lutfur Raham aligned independent group), Hillingdon, Wandsworth, Westminster and the notorious Kensington and Chelsea council of Grenfell infamy.

I'd be utterly astonished if Labour took control of Kensington & Chelsea.  They should win every seat in the North Kensington area around Grenfell itself, but in southern Kensington and Chelsea they were miles behind last time everywhere except Earl's Court and Chelsea Riverside, and even those two weren't particularly close and wouldn't be enough.  The Council may be a literal disaster area but even the combination of that and Brexit isn't going to make the sort of people who vote in Chelsea and South Kensington vote Labour.  There might be a third party challenge, though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

yeah I doubt it as well (a 20 pt Con>Lab swing would net about 7 seats from Earl's court + Chelsea Riverside + St Helens), but I assume people are putting symbolic importance in ousting the notorious group.

Westminster seem's a tall order as well, but I assume Labour will grab enough seats as the 1986 election that freaked out Shirley Porter back in the day.

[Bojicat]

Dunno. Trouble is, as precarious a position as May is in, there is no obvious shining knight in armour that is acceptable to both the majority of the Tory MPs and the membership. (And the Tory leadership, unlike Labour, needs to be narrowed down by parliamentarians so there is less chance of a Corbyn scenario.

That shining knight is BJ, surely. Who else? The rest of 'em are "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies," as he would classify them. At the least, our knight would slay all challengers with Spectator-enriched witticisms and nimble phrasing.

[Lord Halifax]

Dunno. Trouble is, as precarious a position as May is in, there is no obvious shining knight in armour that is acceptable to both the majority of the Tory MPs and the membership. (And the Tory leadership, unlike Labour, needs to be narrowed down by parliamentarians so there is less chance of a Corbyn scenario.

That shining knight is BJ, surely. Who else? The rest of 'em are "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies," as he would classify them. At the least, our knight would slay all challengers with Spectator-enriched witticisms and nimble phrasing.

No chance. BJ is essentially a has-been

[mileslunn]

The big draw will be in London. Now the last London elections were already pretty good for Labour, with its best results in a few decades and taking control of Hammersmith, Harrow, Croydon, Redbridge and Merton; apparently targets this time around will include Barnet, Tower Hamlets (from the Lutfur Raham aligned independent group), Hillingdon, Wandsworth, Westminster and the notorious Kensington and Chelsea council of Grenfell infamy.

I'd be utterly astonished if Labour took control of Kensington & Chelsea.  They should win every seat in the North Kensington area around Grenfell itself, but in southern Kensington and Chelsea they were miles behind last time everywhere except Earl's Court and Chelsea Riverside, and even those two weren't particularly close and wouldn't be enough.  The Council may be a literal disaster area but even the combination of that and Brexit isn't going to make the sort of people who vote in Chelsea and South Kensington vote Labour.  There might be a third party challenge, though.

It will stay Conservative.  Kensington only went Labour by 20 votes and turnout is usually much lower for municipal thus the youth surge you saw federally will be much weaker in local elections.  Chelsea and Fulham went for the Tories by 20 points so wasn't even close although no longer in the top 10 safest Tory constituencies like it was in 2010, instead I don't think even made the top 100 safest but still a safe Tory constituency.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Enfield Prediction: Labour will maintain all their current seats, take all the seats in the split wards (Chase in the North, Southgate Green + Winchmore Hill + Bush Hill Park in the SW) as well as taking over Southgate and maybe Town. That would reduce the Tories to a nub in Cockfosters, Highlands and Grange wards, and a nine seat opposition. (The Tories have really crumbled here - they used to be competitive everywhere aside from Edmonton and its surroundings but "social dumping" from central boroughs has massively changed the character of the North of the borough and of course the Soutgate/Winchmore areas reacted ... poorly to the 2017 Tory election style.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tory rout in the north of the borough in 2002 were a fluke - a one-time backlash against an unpopular Labour administration. Historically that area was a Labour stronghold.

[parochial boy]

The Tory rout in the north of the borough in 2002 were a fluke - a one-time backlash against an unpopular Labour administration. Historically that area was a Labour stronghold.

Wait, 2002? What was happening at the time from Labour to go from polling 50% at the start of the year to 40% at the end?

I assume the run up to Iraq may have had an effect, but surely not as early as May?

I'm very interested in whart happens in Hillingdon this year, because of the inevitable "Is BoJo's seat in danger???" backlash that will happen if Labour win control of the council.

[Leftbehind]

The big draw will be in London. Now the last London elections were already pretty good for Labour, with its best results in a few decades and taking control of Hammersmith, Harrow, Croydon, Redbridge and Merton

Four decades, to be precise - last eclipsed in 1974 (1971 for council control).

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Tower Hamlets: Labour now hold the elected mayoralty, having won the by-election after Lutfur Rahman was disqualified.  If they can hold the mayoralty against the Lutfurites (who have apparently split into two camps) the council should be plain sailing.

The Mayor of Newham Sir Robin Wales is presently trying to fight off a deselection attempt, although hell will freeze over before Labour lose that post.

One mayoral election to watch could be Watford, where Lib Dem mayor Dorothy Thornhill is standing down after four terms.

[Leftbehind]

YouGov poll published regarding the local elections in London (changes from 2014):-

54% Lab (+11)
28% Con (-2)
11% Lib (+1)
  7% Oth (-10)

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Barnet is interesting, even though on paper it requuires only the tiniest pick-up to be Labour gain. I think it might be the only "swing" (in ordinary situations) borough that voted Tory last election and Remain. The Tories, fwiw, won all three constituencies in the borough, although all in a marginal sense (with Hendon being only won by 106 votes). This was the 2014 result:



(Colindale isn't independent, it was delayed: Labour won all three seats. The split wards were Brunswick Park, where a Tory won; Hale, with one Labour and Childs Hill (one Lib Dem).

The big factor that led to a relative underperfomance in Barnet was the anti-Labour swing in the Jewish vote. We'll see if the party has repaired any of the damage here, especially in the wards with the most Jews like Golders Green, Finchley Church End, Edgware, Hendon and (Hampstead) Garden Suburb. Counteracting that is a big pro-Labour swing in Chipping Barnet, the seat that covers the NE of the borough (and also the least Jewish). Almost certainly a pick-up, but there may be odd ward swings. I think Labour will easily take the split wards (including Childs Hill, which is a three way marginal), and Oakleigh and may penetrate elsewhere in the borough (High Barnet? Totteridge?).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls for local elections are not worth the paper they are no longer printed on ftr.

[vileplume]

Barnet is interesting, even though on paper it requuires only the tiniest pick-up to be Labour gain. I think it might be the only "swing" (in ordinary situations) borough that voted Tory last election and Remain. The Tories, fwiw, won all three constituencies in the borough, although all in a marginal sense (with Hendon being only won by 106 votes). This was the 2014 result:



(Colindale isn't independent, it was delayed: Labour won all three seats. The split wards were Brunswick Park, where a Tory won; Hale, with one Labour and Childs Hill (one Lib Dem).

The big factor that led to a relative underperfomance in Barnet was the anti-Labour swing in the Jewish vote. We'll see if the party has repaired any of the damage here, especially in the wards with the most Jews like Golders Green, Finchley Church End, Edgware, Hendon and (Hampstead) Garden Suburb. Counteracting that is a big pro-Labour swing in Chipping Barnet, the seat that covers the NE of the borough (and also the least Jewish). Almost certainly a pick-up, but there may be odd ward swings. I think Labour will easily take the split wards (including Childs Hill, which is a three way marginal), and Oakleigh and may penetrate elsewhere in the borough (High Barnet? Totteridge?).

The Tories won the Hendon constituency by 1,072 votes, the 106 vote win was from 2010. Hendon was also probably the Tories least bad result in remain London.

I also think you are overestimating how well Labour will do in Barnet, I agree they will likely take the council but far more narrowly than you seem to expect. The Tory result in Barnet at the was not all that bad considering the borough voted 62.2% remain and thus I expect the Tories will do significantly better here than in remain voting inner London boroughs where they will suffer a much greater swing against them. As for the Jewish vote, they're already an extremely anti-Labour/pro-Tory demographic and nothing has happened in the last year to remotely change that.

Also it is worth noting that Labour's performance in Barnet (vs. the Tories) in the 2014 locals was already very strong so the scope for gains may be limited. On the other hand the one thing that may help Labour vs. last years general is that EU citizens have a vote and I think Barnet has a fair number of them though I'm unsure where in the borough they're concentrated.

-The wards you mention of 'Golders Green, Finchley Church End, Edgware, Hendon and (Hampstead) Garden Suburb' are safe Tory wards and Labour will be nowhere near to winning a seat in any of them.
-Labour will easily take the remaining Tory seat in Brunswick Park but this may well be counteracted by losing their seat in Hale to the Tories (possibly the only Con gain directly from Lab in the capital).
-As for the three fully Tory wards in Chipping Barnet (Oakleigh, High Barnet, Totteridge) it is likely the Tories will return full slates in all of them. Even with their poor performance in Chipping Barnet in the snap election they still would have been comfortably ahead in these three wards. Totteridge is especially safe.
-Childs Hill is not quite as easy for Labour to pick up as you presume because it is the only ward in the borough where the Lib Dems are remotely competitive so presumably they'll throw everything at it. A perfectly split Lib/Lab vote could allow the Tories to hold on though I don't think this is likely. However I would note the Tories probably either won or at least came relatively close to winning Childs Hill in the general (with Woodhouse, E Finchley, W Finchley going strongly Labour and Golders Green, Garden Suburb, Finchley CE going strongly Tory with Childs Hill being close). If the ward goes 3 LD though it could mean a hung council (and thus a Labour minority).
-The only other ward to watch is West Hendon where the demographics have become better for the Tories in the last couple of years with the regeneration of much of the council housing in the west of the ward. Whether Brexit has torpedoed their chances this time is yet to be seen though they were probably not all that far behind Labour in the snap election (it's Burnt Oak and Colindale where they get blown out of the water by ludicrous margins). A Labour hold is the most likely outcome but don't completely rule out at least a partial Tory gain. It's probably the key to them holding the council.

In conclusion I expect Labour will take Barnet albeit with a fairly slender majority.

[Leftbehind]

Polls for local elections are not worth the paper they are no longer printed on ftr.

Posted for posterity more than anything - I expect the stated turnout will bare little relation to reality.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Labour just launched their London campaign

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/983438782572761094

[joevsimp]

Are nominations closing for all districts/boroughs today. I checked mine in Reading just now. No Ukip candidates at all, including in wards where they've had solid second place finishes before.

All wards here have Labour, Green, Lib Dem and Tory candidates, with TUSC, WEP, an independent and the continuing Liberals nominating one each.

There were literally no gains or losses last electioin (2016) and i can't see any likely ones this year either. Lab hold

[cp]

YouGov/QM poll on London:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/989452101473402880

Lab: 51% (-3 since Feb.)
Con: 29% (+1)
LD: 11% (-)
Green: 4% (-)
UKIP: 2% (lol)

Put in a larger perspective, this poll would put Labour 8 points ahead of their result in 2014 (the last London borough elections) and is the biggest lead any party has had in London local elections since 1998.

Adam Grey at SOAS has put together this handy and excellent primer on the ramifications of this and various other sorts of swings here.

It seems Labour is sucking up most of the third party votes, especially the Lib Dems; the Tory result is comparable to their returns in other years where they did poorly. FWIW, I think this is somewhat underestimating Labour, especially in the inner part of London where non-traditional voters, especially EU citizens, are more motivated than usual to turn out.

[parochial boy]

Ooh, I don't think I've ever seen ethnic crosstabs in a UK poll before.

Interesting that the "white" Londoner vote is not all too dissimilar to the national polling, and the huge lead comes from non-white voters backing Labour by 75-13% over the Tories.

Of course, ethnic figures could be highly suspect, especially as I'm pretty sure they're relatively new. But I reckon they're definitely worth including in any polling specifically of London

[jaichind]

It seems the recent national polling has CON opening a small lead over LAB over the last couple of months.  Given the fact these seats were last fought back in 2014 would we not expect the CON to gain seats this time around?  I guess it really depends on how the 2014 UKIP vote will flow.  2017 UK national elections taught us that a UKIP collapse does not automatically help CON.

[parochial boy]

It seems the recent national polling has CON opening a small lead over LAB over the last couple of months.  Given the fact these seats were last fought back in 2014 would we not expect the CON to gain seats this time around?  I guess it really depends on how the 2014 UKIP vote will flow.  2017 UK national elections taught us that a UKIP collapse does not automatically help CON.

Mostly urban areas, especially London, which swung heavily towards Labour in 2017. That's the thing to be thinking about more than headline polling figures

[jaichind]

It seems the recent national polling has CON opening a small lead over LAB over the last couple of months.  Given the fact these seats were last fought back in 2014 would we not expect the CON to gain seats this time around?  I guess it really depends on how the 2014 UKIP vote will flow.  2017 UK national elections taught us that a UKIP collapse does not automatically help CON.

Mostly urban areas, especially London, which swung heavily towards Labour in 2017. That's the thing to be thinking about more than headline polling figures

So the assertion here is the lean of places like London and other urban areas that are voting in 2018 has trended more LAB since 2014 as to make up for the relative decline of LAB in 2018 when compared to 2014 in national polls?