FL-Sen: Scott almost certainly running

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/01/rick-scott-florida-senate-bill-nelson-midterms-381262

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/959047166697312256

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Nelson is going to have a really tough race on his hands. Scott's approval in the latest Morning Consult poll is 58-31.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lean D

[_]

Tossup/Tilt D

[Brittain33]

Time's getting short for him to announce, isn't it? Cory Gardner announced in March 2014, and that was notably late.

[_]

Time's getting short for him to announce, isn't it? Cory Gardner announced in March 2014, and that was notably late.

He said he'll decide by March in the article, the 9th I think, not sure.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Time's getting short for him to announce, isn't it? Cory Gardner announced in March 2014, and that was notably late.

Not really. Florida's filing deadline isn't until June 22nd, and Scott already has all the money he needs and then some. He could outspend Nelson 6 or 7 to 1 in his sleep.

[Chief Justice Keef]

If Scott jumps in, this will be Nelson's most competitive race yet. I still rate it Lean D.

[2016]

If Scott jumps in, this will be Nelson's most competitive race yet. I still rate it Lean D.

This Race poses some interesting Dynamics if Scott runs...

# 1 Will Floridians think about Rick Scott who closely aligned himself with Trump during the 2016 POTUS Race...

or

# 2 Will they think more about Governor Rick Scott who showed some really good Leadership during Crisis (Irma)...

If Scott can localize the Race and not get dragged down by Trump & Congressional Republicans he even might have a chance winning this.

58/31 JA in Florida is pretty darn good for a Governor. The only other GOP Governor who had higher Approvals was Jeb I think.

[KingSweden]

It’s worth noting Scott had two fairly narrow wins in massive GOP waves. Now, Irma has helped him recover, of course, but I’m still not taking this anywhere other than Lean D.

[DemocraticKing]

Likely to Safe D without Scott. Lean D with Scott. Scott won by tiny margins in 2010 and 2014, not to mention that while Scott has good approvals, Nelson has similarly excellent approvals, and tends to win in places Democrats don't usually win anymore. He won Liberty County for example in 2012.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I still think that the influx of people displaced from Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria is going to give Florida a D-ward push for the next few years.

[2016]

It’s worth noting Scott had two fairly narrow wins in massive GOP waves. Now, Irma has helped him recover, of course, but I’m still not taking this anywhere other than Lean D.

Scott was "underwater" in his first four years as Governor in Florida YET he still managed to win Re-Election.

His Favorability Rating according to the 2014 Exits was 44/54 closerly mirroring his JA. Everyone knew Crist wasn't going to win because he was a Turncoat. Same with Fitzgerald in Ohio.

Democrats did poorly in Florida in recent years. The only victories they have had were the POTUS Victories by Obama and Nelsons in 2006 & 2012.

The last 3 Elections Bill Nelson has had badly damaged Opponents:
2000 he won against the House Impeachment Man Bill McCollum
2006 he won against Katherine Harris who was damaged goods after the Florida 2000 Recount Fiasco and how she handled it.
2012 Connie Mack was a big Flop

This Race will be a real Test for Nelson if Scott runs. Nelson will not get an "Get Out-of-Jail Free Card Run" this time.

[Santander]

I still think that the influx of people displaced from Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria is going to give Florida a D-ward push for the next few years.

That's what voter suppression is for.

[Orser67]

Honestly, I just don't think who the GOP nominates is going to matter that much; they're still going to have a tough time taking down an incumbent in a swing state in a Trump midterm. Likely D.

[Virginiá]

Honestly, I just don't think who the GOP nominates is going to matter that much; they're still going to have a tough time taking down an incumbent in a swing state in a Trump midterm. Likely D.

The main worry is that Scott is going to unload a mountain of cash in the race and force Democrats to spend heavily in Florida. Obviously it depends how Scott spends his money, but it's a concern nonetheless.

[KingSweden]

I still think that the influx of people displaced from Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria is going to give Florida a D-ward push for the next few years.

I think the effects of this will be marginal near term, honestly. Rare to find somewhere where you and I disagree!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I still think that the influx of people displaced from Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria is going to give Florida a D-ward push for the next few years.

I think the effects of this will be marginal near term, honestly. Rare to find somewhere where you and I disagree!

Well, when compared to the total voting population of the state, the influx is indeed quite small.  My thinking is that even a small delta will have quite a bit of leverage because of how close the statewide elections tend to be.

[KingSweden]

I still think that the influx of people displaced from Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria is going to give Florida a D-ward push for the next few years.

I think the effects of this will be marginal near term, honestly. Rare to find somewhere where you and I disagree!

Well, when compared to the total voting population of the state, the influx is indeed quite small.  My thinking is that even a small delta will have quite a bit of leverage because of how close the statewide elections tend to be.

Ah that makes sense. Fair enough.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Rick Scott won 2 Governor Races with razor thin pluralities in a Lean R state in 2 R wave years.

Really weak candidate.

[Cactus Jack]

This really won't go well for him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ugh, I mean we will win this thing one way or another, but I don't want to have to dump resources here either. Lean D with Scott, Likely D without.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It’s worth noting Scott had two fairly narrow wins in massive GOP waves. Now, Irma has helped him recover, of course, but I’m still not taking this anywhere other than Lean D.

[Greedo punched first]

What about Nelson's incumbency and write-in Republican Angela Walls-Windhauser possibly getting 100 votes in a close race? This should help Nelson.

[Hollywood]

Rick Scott is going to drown Bill Nelson in campaign ads.  Complete tossup.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Toss up. A lot of Floridians were impressed by Scott's leadership during Hurricane Irma and the massive amount of old people and families in the state are probably loving the tax cuts (compounded by FL not having income tax)