2008: McCain vs Edwards

[FDB]

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[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If he doesn't drop out, he loses badly. McCain probably wins at least 40 states and 55% of the PV.
If he does drop out, his running mate would probably be favored to win depending on who they are.

[NewYorkExpress]

Even if Edwards does drop out, the circumstances surrounding that means McCain would be narrowly favored...if he doesn't make a boneheaded choice for his running mate like he did IRL.

Palin would have been a killer for McCain in this scenario, so he probably doesn't pick her. Instead, McCain probably picks Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum, to draw a contrast with the Democrats, regardless of what Edwards does.

The map is the Bush 04 map plus New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon and Minnesota, with Illinois, Connecticut (thanks to Joe Lieberman) and Washington being tossups to the very end.

[HomestarSB9]

Sen. John S. McCain III (R-AZ) / Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) - 350 EVs
Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) / Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) - 188 EVs

Although Edwards is caught in a scandal, the ticket manages to win Virginia by an 11% margin,
 due to veterans questioning McCain's military experience.