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  TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11
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Author Topic: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11  (Read 2414 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2018, 02:31:06 am »

Clinton lost Tennessee by 26%. Now the Democrats are losing it by only 11%. That's a 15% swing to the Democrats, right in line with all the other evidence we've seen and demonstrating the blue wave is coming and it will be YUGE. If anything given that there's a 15% swing to the Dems we may be underestimating just how big the wave really is.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2018, 02:41:15 am »

Never understood why people here thought this or Texas were remotely likely pick ups

Unless the Republican brand improves nationally, or Cruz starts becoming more popular with his colleagues in the Senate (which would help him bring money home), Texas will be at worst for Democrats a Tossup.

Tennessee on the other hand, won't even be close. Both Blackburn and Fincher should win by at least 15.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #27 on: January 30, 2018, 10:44:07 am »

What's with polls heavily underestimating black share of the electorate?
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Pollster
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« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2018, 12:06:16 pm »

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As expected, the race is moderately competitive with a GOP advantage.
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Weak Incumbent MT Treasurer
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« Reply #29 on: January 30, 2018, 02:37:36 pm »

I never thought this race was a Tossup, even when Gravis showed him leading by 2. Lean/Likely R seems fair, though I wouldn’t rate it Safe R after what happened in AL and some of these other special elections. In a big D wave, Blackburn likely loses before someone like Heitkamp or Nelson, but my guess is that she wins by 10-13 points in the end.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #30 on: January 30, 2018, 04:46:14 pm »

Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.

And why is the sample 46% republican? Surely there are less Republicans in TN than that (although I bet indies here are pretty titanium R anyways).
No that partisan breakdown is fairly accurate. As of 2014 at least TN party registration was 47% Republican 35% Democrat. Parties have a fair bit of strength down there.
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TomC
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« Reply #31 on: January 30, 2018, 07:23:03 pm »

Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.

And why is the sample 46% republican? Surely there are less Republicans in TN than that (although I bet indies here are pretty titanium R anyways).
No that partisan breakdown is fairly accurate. As of 2014 at least TN party registration was 47% Republican 35% Democrat. Parties have a fair bit of strength down there.

We do not register by party in Tennessee.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #32 on: January 31, 2018, 06:37:42 pm »

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.
I wouldn't be too sure about calling this race safe R. It's over 10 months until the election and ten thousand things can happen between now and then. I'd probably say lean R for now, this race could get as close as 2006.

Yeah, here's a few of those 10,000 things that could lead to Blackburn losing: Her being a pedophile, her being a murderer, etc. But if we're going to start considering 0.01% probabilities, then hardly any race is truly safe.
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