Is Ohio for Republicans what Colorado is for Democrats?

[President Johnson]

It seems as Ohio is more and more seen as leaning Republican in presidential and statewide elections. Very similar to Colorado on the Democratic side: It reflects to current constituencies of the respective party. Both were earlier toss-up states, but now tend more into one direction. Also at the state level: In 2018, it looks like both parties will keep the open governorships. And it is possible, that both remain in their column no matter who wins in the end.

Or is Trump's almost double digit lead in 2016 despite losing the national popular vote over interpreted? What concerns me, too, is that the governor's chair currently has to be rated likely Republican.

[cvparty]

Ohio has always been a tilt/lean R state

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Ohio seems to be following Missouri down the path from perfect swing state to solid R but will never go quite as far because it's more urban and racially diverse. Even if Brown holds onto his Senate seat, this trend is likely to continue. Same goes in reverse for Colorado. Gardener is likely a one term Senator.

[I’m not Stu]

Ohio has always been a tilt/lean R state

[Smash255]

It seems as Ohio is more and more seen as leaning Republican in presidential and statewide elections. Very similar to Colorado on the Democratic side: It reflects to current constituencies of the respective party. Both were earlier toss-up states, but now tend more into one direction. Also at the state level: In 2018, it looks like both parties will keep the open governorships. And it is possible, that both remain in their column no matter who wins in the end.

Or is Trump's almost double digit lead in 2016 despite losing the national popular vote over interpreted? What concerns me, too, is that the governor's chair currently has to be rated likely Republican.

A possibility, but have to wait another cycle to see.  Metro Columbus still swung Democratic

[TML]

I think OH is probably no longer a perfect bellwether, since the Democrats can now afford to lose it narrowly (by less than 5% or so) while still winning nationally (remember that final 2016 pre-Election Day polls had Trump winning by 2-4% instead of 8-10%, so a significantly narrower Trump win in OH would likely have meant MI & PA staying D).

On the other hand, I don't think OH is a "lost cause" for the Democrats in the same way MO might be, since the counties which Trump flipped in 2016 (mostly in the north central & northeastern parts of the state) all had a Republican vote share of less than 60%, meaning that they (along with the state overall) can flip back to the Democrats if they win nationally by modest (Obama 2012-esque) margins or better.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio has always been a tilt/lean R state

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Ohio seems to be following Missouri down the path from perfect swing state to solid R but will never go quite as far because it's more urban and racially diverse. Even if Brown holds onto his Senate seat, this trend is likely to continue. Same goes in reverse for Colorado. Gardener is likely a one term Senator.

I mostly agree with this. Though, if we're making parallels, Gardner could be Colorado's Sherrod Brown

[Nyssus]

I think OH is probably no longer a perfect bellwether, since the Democrats can now afford to lose it narrowly (by less than 5% or so) while still winning nationally (remember that final 2016 pre-Election Day polls had Trump winning by 2-4% instead of 8-10%, so a significantly narrower Trump win in OH would likely have meant MI & PA staying D).

On the other hand, I don't think OH is a "lost cause" for the Democrats in the same way MO might be, since the counties which Trump flipped in 2016 (mostly in the north central & northeastern parts of the state) all had a Republican vote share of less than 60%, meaning that they (along with the state overall) can flip back to the Democrats if they win nationally by modest (Obama 2012-esque) margins or better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio will be key in 2020, and Dems have a good shot at winning the gubernatorial election.  It's a purple state.