NC-Meredith College: Biden beats Trump by 1; Warren/Winfrey/Gillibrand trail

[Mr. Morden]

Meredith College poll of North Carolina, conducted January 21-25:

https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/poll_report_spring_2018.pdf

Biden 46%
Trump 45%

Trump 48%
Warren 40%

Trump 46%
Gillibrand 36%

Trump 48%
Winfrey 38%

Trump 45%
Cooper 43%

Do you want another Republican to challenge President Trump for his party’s nomination?

(among Republicans)
yes 37%
no 46%
don’t know 17%

[libertpaulian]

Dat 37% tho

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav %:
Winfrey 51/35% for +16%
Trump 49/48% for +1%

Also, oddly enough, Trump's share of the vote among blacks is higher in the matchup with Oprah than it is in the matchups against any other Dem. 

[ProgressiveCanadian]

No Bernie Sanders but Oprah? LOL.

[Mail-order President]

It looks like 2020 isn't going to be the Dem landslide Atlas makes it out to be...

[Nyssus]

fav/unfav %:
Winfrey 51/35% for +16%
Trump 49/48% for +1%

Also, oddly enough, Trump's share of the vote among blacks is higher in the matchup with Oprah than it is in the matchups against any other Dem. 

Hmm...seems like another junk poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden needs to run. I don't give a damn if he has to do it in a wheelchair or if he isn't socialist enough for the Bernie wing.

[TarHeelDem]

A quick glance shows that this has horrible sampling. Junk poll.

[Free Bird]

Makes sense at the moment

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The poll has 14% black people but NC is 22% black (and the electorate was 20% black according to CNN / 22% black according to American Progress). Yeah ok lol

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

The poll has 14% black people but NC is 22% black (and the electorate was 20% black according to CNN / 22% black according to American Progress). Yeah ok lol

And it was noted elsewhere on the thread that Winfrey got a lower share of the black vote than other candidates. I mean, I wouldn't really want Winfrey as the nominee but that seems odd.

[Mr. Morden]

The poll has 14% black people but NC is 22% black (and the electorate was 20% black according to CNN / 22% black according to American Progress). Yeah ok lol

And it was noted elsewhere on the thread that Winfrey got a lower share of the black vote than other candidates. I mean, I wouldn't really want Winfrey as the nominee but that seems odd.

To be clear, Winfrey got a lower share than Biden or Cooper, but not less than Gillibrand and Warren.  However, Trump's share of the black vote was highest in the matchup with Winfrey, because it had fewer undecideds.

Also, the pollster spelled Kirsten's last name as "Gillebrand". 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

NC is clearly not a swing state if Biden is (at the moment) up double-digits nationally, but only 1 in NC.  Neither side will win the NPV by double-digits (or anything close to that).  To be cautious, we could call NC Lean R, but it is far closer to Likely R than Tossup.  2008 was a fluke, just like Indiana.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It looks like 2020 isn't going to be the Dem landslide Atlas makes it out to be...

Stop with the concern trolling. General Election polls this far out are basically meaningless regardless of what they show.

[King Lear]

This poll proves what I’ve been saying that North Carolina is unwinnable for Democrats unless their winning the popular vote by a high-single digit margin (this definitely won’t happen in 2020 against a moderately popular (approval at 50% give or take a couple points) incumbent president Trump). The only Trump states Democrats should seriously contest are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (all three of those states are Tossup), along with throwing some money at Florida (which Leans Republican) in order to distract Trump from the Rust Belt. However, they should not spend one dime on Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia (Arizona and Georgia are Likely Republican, while North Carolina is Lean Republican), because these states will not be truly competitive for at least another decade.

[NewYorkExpress]

No Bernie Sanders, but they include Roy Cooper?

Junk Poll!

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Wait, how does Roy Cooper manage to lose his home state by 2%?

[History505]

State polls this early are extremely pointless, they shouldn't even be doing these.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It looks like 2020 isn't going to be the Dem landslide Atlas makes it out to be...

[Dr. MB]

State polls this early are extremely pointless, they shouldn't even be doing these.

Agree. Any poll done more than 18 months or so before the election – before the race actually heats up– is pretty pointless.

[Not a Partisan Hack ( ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡°)]

Can we do the polls when it's in the range of 6 months to a year before the election. It's really degrading to see these kinds of posts when they are obviously not even happening before the primaries.

I'll come back to another stupid post like this that uses polls when it is actually closer to the election season.

[Mr. Morden]

The horserace polls this early are dumb.  However, I do think there's value to doing early polls that test candidate name recognition (perhaps just asking the favorable / unfavorable question for everyone).  E.g., all the polling suggests that Warren is not quite as well known as Biden or Sanders, but that she's ahead of the rest of the field (not counting non-politicians like Winfrey) in name recognition.  Yet, after Gillibrand got some publicity in December, several posters here predicted it would give her a noticeable bump in the primary polls, but it didn't happen.

So there's some merit to testing name recognition at this early stage, as it has some predictive power on the primary standings.  But polling the general election itself this early is silly.

Either way, this looks like a rather shoddy poll.