If you had been told on Nov 7....

[Annatar]

If you had been told on Nov 7 that Clinton would win the PV by 2.1% and carry Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire, what chance would you have given Trump of winning?

[Mr. Smith]

I admit, I didn't imagine Pennsylvania actually flipping after all that despite being a faint possibility.

And Wisconsin wouldn't be enough.

But I really did think if Trump was going to win, it'd be thanks to racist ranchers and old SoCal tax refugees in Nevada and through the shy Boston suburbanites in New Hampshire along with New Hampshire.

I even bet Ayotte and Heck before Ron John and Tumor for Senate.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

10% chance, I thought that any Trump victory would include New Hampshire or Nevada back then.

[here2view]

1-9% chance. I thought Hillary would end up winning 302-236, so closer than Obama-Romney in 2012. I thought she would get Florida, the 3 Rust Belt states, and ME-02, while Trump would win Nevada. If I were told this it wouldn't really change how I felt. I believed Florida would be very close but she would still have won 273-265 without it.

Without this info, the only way I originally saw a path for Trump to win was something very close, something along the lines of a 270 to 268 outcome. This would be the 2016 map but Hillary gets Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Trump wins New Hampshire (which he lost by 3,000) and Nevada. I never gave Hillary much of a chance in Iowa, Ohio, or North Carolina beforehand - I felt Trump had those on lock.

I realized we might be in for a surprise when Trump got in the lead with 90+% of the vote in in Florida. Once she fell behind right off the bat in Michigan and Wisconsin I knew it was over. I ended up going to bed that night around 12:15 AM, right around when Trump was closing in and eventually took the lead in Pennsylvania. It was something like 244-209 by that point.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I was fairly confident that Trump would win PA. I had never seen such enthusiasm for anything, let alone politics, before. Trump signs (often gigantic custom made ones) were everywhere, as were Trump T-shirts (likewise often custom), hats, and more. This made me assume he'd also win Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and ME-2. A figured even a small swing away from democrats flips Florida and New Hampshire while securing the Romney states.

I was probably 75% confident that Trump would win nationally, 80% in PA. In the end, I only got NH and MI wrong by narrow margins.

[twenty42]

It would be hard to say. If Clinton was underachieving her national polls by 1.2% and yet still winning NV and NH, that would've meant Trump was overachieving in other states. This could've been a smoke signal that he flipped PA and MI, but it could've just as easily been postulated that he ran up the score in deep red (Atlas blue) states. For that reason I'd say it would be undefined, so I voted the flat 50%.

[bagelman]

I imagine that this is what my prediction map may have looked like

[TML]

On FiveThirtyEight, there was an article published in late October with five possible election outcomes, and one of those scenarios was one where Hillary wins the PV by about 2% and wins the EV 278-260 (which is the actual result with WI/MI/PA flipped). In that scenario, the election isn't decided until PA finishes counting shortly after 1 AM. Based on this, the probability of a Trump win would have been about 30% or so.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I only ever saw a possibility of Trump winning through upsets in Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

I also thought that the New Hampshire Senate Race was going to be the race to decide which Party would win the Senate (50-50 tie to give Dems Control, since I thought that Hillary Clinton was more likely to win than Maggie Hassan was, or 51-49 Republican Majority, with higher chances of flipping to the Dems in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania).

I still believed that Clinton was favored to win Iowa throughout the entire election.

[MT Treasurer]

I never bought WI and to a lesser extent PA being unwinnable for Trump and always knew that NH was less likely to vote for a Republican for president or Senate than WI, PA, etc., so at least I got that right. I thought MO or WI was going to be the tipping point state in the Senate.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I never bought WI and to a lesser extent PA being unwinnable for Trump and always knew that NH was less likely to vote for a Republican for president or Senate than WI, PA, etc., so at least I got that right. I thought MO or WI was going to be the tipping point state in the Senate.

TITANIUM D NEW HAMPSHIRE has a republican trifecta

[Sir Mohamed]

Maybe 10%. If someone told me Trump would win 46.0% and the winner has over 300 EVs, I would have said that Trump's winning chance is 0.01%.

[Sadader]

I was fairly confident that Trump would win PA. I had never seen such enthusiasm for anything, let alone politics, before. Trump signs (often gigantic custom made ones) were everywhere, as were Trump T-shirts (likewise often custom), hats, and more. This made me assume he'd also win Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and ME-2. A figured even a small swing away from democrats flips Florida and New Hampshire while securing the Romney states.

I was probably 75% confident that Trump would win nationally, 80% in PA. In the end, I only got NH and MI wrong by narrow margins.

This is a terrible heuristic. I remember some WSJ political writer guaranteeing that Rommey would win because they saw so many Romney/Ryan yard signs in Florida, which was obviously moronic journalism.

[Sadader]

Maybe 10%. If someone told me Trump would win 46.0% and the winner has over 300 EVs, I would have said that Trump's winning chance is 0.01%.

46% is better than most of the prexelection polls had him at (around 44%) so it wouldn’t really have changed anything. Clinton was polling at 46%, but got 48%. If it’s 46% for Trump, sub 46% for Climton would have be a pretty likely scenario. It’d raise Trump’s chances if anything.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I was fairly confident that Trump would win PA. I had never seen such enthusiasm for anything, let alone politics, before. Trump signs (often gigantic custom made ones) were everywhere, as were Trump T-shirts (likewise often custom), hats, and more. This made me assume he'd also win Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and ME-2. A figured even a small swing away from democrats flips Florida and New Hampshire while securing the Romney states.

I was probably 75% confident that Trump would win nationally, 80% in PA. In the end, I only got NH and MI wrong by narrow margins.

This is a terrible heuristic. I remember some WSJ political writer guaranteeing that Rommey would win because they saw so many Romney/Ryan yard signs in Florida, which was obviously moronic journalism.

My brother lives in Warren, Mi in Macomb county.  He knows realizes that the lack of Hillary signs was actually an indication of her coming loss in Michigan.  The area had been covered over with Obama signs in 08 & 12.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I admit, I didn't imagine Pennsylvania actually flipping after all that despite being a faint possibility.

And Wisconsin wouldn't be enough.

But I really did think if Trump was going to win, it'd be thanks to racist ranchers and old SoCal tax refugees in Nevada and through the shy Boston suburbanites in New Hampshire along with New Hampshire.

I even bet Ayotte and Heck before Ron John and Tumor for Senate.

“Tumor” really.  Boy I do feel your pain as Bill would say. Though I know I will have to pay for it this November, I revel in it.  Nothing can ever take away my joy arising from the defeat of the wicked witch.  It would have been better for the country and party if Rubio had done the job.  But there is some poetic justice in that the deed was done by Trump.  My wife maintains only Trump could have pulled it off.  We will never know.

[Beet]

I suppose I'll have to take consolation in knowing that the "wicked witch" got so close to begin with. I really thought Sanders was going to take it at one point.

As for yard signs, that was a consistent complaint at the campaign. Robby Mook had some study saying that yard signs didn't do diddly so he refused to spend any money on them. We had people at the low level saying it was a bad idea of Brooklyn thought they knew best.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I suppose I'll have to take consolation in knowing that the "wicked witch" got so close to begin with. I really thought Sanders was going to take it at one point.

As for yard signs, that was a consistent complaint at the campaign. Robby Mook had some study saying that yard signs didn't do diddly so he refused to spend any money on them. We had people at the low level saying it was a bad idea of Brooklyn thought they knew best.

Of course, the fact she won the popular vote actually raises my elation for the greater pain the loss caused her and her foolish supporters.

Mook may actually be right about yard signs generally, but it may be an indication in swing counties like Macomb in a swing state. Covering over the east side of Detroit means nothing.  It is going to be 90% Democrat regardless. But Macomb could be and was a different story.

[SingingAnalyst]

10% at best.

At one time I was told that someone had observed 372 yard signs in Michigan's Thumb: 371 for Trump and 1 for Clinton. Still, I would not have thought that would overcome the Dem vote in Wayne, Washtenaw, Genesee, etc. Counties. I certainly did not think my home county of Macomb would swing as strongly as it did, and I was very surprised to see Saginaw County, which had last voted GOP in 1984, vote for Trump.

[Arkansas Yankee]

10% at best.

At one time I was told that someone had observed 372 yard signs in Michigan's Thumb: 371 for Trump and 1 for Clinton. Still, I would not have thought that would overcome the Dem vote in Wayne, Washtenaw, Genesee, etc. Counties. I certainly did not think my home county of Macomb would swing as strongly as it did, and I was very surprised to see Saginaw County, which had last voted GOP in 1984, vote for Trump.

Saginaw and Bay counties were true shockers

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was already convinced that Trump could pull it off throughout the campaign. The timing of Comeyghazi just sealed it for me in the days leading up to the election.

 In this instance though I would cling to some hope that Trump would just be too unpalatable to the American public. I would especially be reassured at Clinton winning the popular vote and New Hampshire. In reality I thought she would lose both of those on election day. I would also still probably think that Michigan and Wisconsin would vote for her in the end with it all coming down to Pennsylvania. So I voted 50% because as my username suggests, I still would never have gotten too optimistic.

[Da2017]

I thought she would win. Some part me kept telling me Trump had a chance.

[alomas]

Actually he would still has a chance, about 25% I would say. Two weakest 'blue-leaning' states were PA and Michigan, 36 electoral votes. Colorado, Virginia and Nevada were harder to win. Also, the scenario in which Clinton carried popular vote but losing electoral college was very much possible, due to California, Texas and NY margins.

He would only need one of PA and Michigan. My concern would be on NH though where he was doing better than in the Rust Belt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP has been winning elections most of the time, and won 16/20 Congressional elections.  WI, PA and MI which voted for Trump had GOP delegation in the US House and GOP state legislatures.  So, it was a surprise that Trump won it, but the not that surprising, since Johnson, Stein took the margin of difference from Hillary and gave it to Trump.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I always thought that New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado were going to be the states that decided the election.