Evolution of Vote by Religious Group

[Annatar]

One thing that has always interested me in politics is the role of religion and how the voting behaviors of different religious groups have changed over time. Below, I used the exit polls from 2004 and 2016 to see how the religious landscape of voters in America changed over this period as well as their voting habits.

Below I have put the data in from 2004 and 2016 pertaining to the share of voters that belonged to each religious group and how they voted based off the CNN Exit Polls.

2004
   
Religion and Share of Vote                       R          D           R-D
   
Protestant 54%                                      59        40          +19
Catholic  27%                                        52        47          +5
Jewish 3%                                             25        74          -49
Other 7%                                               23        74          -51
None 10%                                              31        67          -36



2016

Religion and Share of Vote                       R          D           R-D
   
Protestant 52%                                      56        39          +17
Catholic  23%                                        50        46          +4
Jewish 3%                                             23        71          -48
Other 8%                                               29        62          -33
None 15%                                              25        67          -42



As can be seen, the share of voters that identified as Protestants declined by 2 points between 2004 and 2016 and the Republican margin among them also fell by 2 points from 19% to 17%. The Catholic vote declined the most from 2004 to 2016 which is interesting considering the rapid growth in the Hispanic population from 2004-2016, with the Catholic vote going from 27% to 23%, the only possible explanation for this being that White Catholic numbers must be in free-fall, Trumps margin among Catholics as a whole was the same as Bush's.

The Jewish vote remained fairly static from 2004-2016, although Trump interestingly did better among voters who said they belonged to a non-Christian religion, improving by 18 points on Bush's margin.

Voters who professed no religion rose from 10% to 15% and shifted around 6 points towards the Democratic candidate. 


Overall it seems that the proportion of Protestants stayed fairly constant over the 2004-2016 period and the Republican margin among them also stayed stable. The real changes seem to be occurring in the Catholic vote which seems to be in decline and the non-religious vote which is growing, perhaps at the expense of the Catholic vote and which has helped the Democrats.


Overall, the 2004-2016 trends seem to indicate that America is heading for a future where the population is divided between Protestants and non-religious voters with Catholics playing less of a role as their relative numbers decline.

[SingingAnalyst]

with Catholics playing less of a role as their relative numbers decline.

I agree, it is very interesting. There is no real Catholic vote anymore. Today's conservative Catholics vote like today's Evangelical Protestants (despite the antipathy many Evangelicals held toward Catholics in the past), and the rest don't vote any way in particular.

[Person Man]

with Catholics playing less of a role as their relative numbers decline.

I agree, it is very interesting. There is no real Catholic vote anymore. Today's conservative Catholics vote like today's Evangelical Protestants (despite the antipathy many Evangelicals held toward Catholics in the past), and the rest don't vote any way in particular.

They claim to not like Catholics because they believe church hierarchy and the reverence of the Virgin to be idolatry. But I think its just racism.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Other = predominantly nonwhite Muslims/Hindus/Buddhists who hate the religious right but also feel increasingly alienated from the "SJW-ish" cosmopolitan progressive liberal elite represented by the DNC.