Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[smoltchanov]

It's usually not good news when people leave your party, but none of these are big surprises. Clayton has been critical of the GOP for several years - I always suspected that she wouldn't make the first move but would jump if others did first. Her seat is pretty Democratic.

Sykes was always going to face a strong primary challenge in 2020 so this move probably improves her reelection chances. The district is still reasonably conservative so I'm suspecting she'll have a tough race coming up.

There are a couple JoCo Republicans that sway between moderate and conservative - I'll become much concerned if any of them flip.

About 52% Clinton is a "conservative district" now? And - you mean Cox and Kesinger?

[tmthforu94]

It's usually not good news when people leave your party, but none of these are big surprises. Clayton has been critical of the GOP for several years - I always suspected that she wouldn't make the first move but would jump if others did first. Her seat is pretty Democratic.

Sykes was always going to face a strong primary challenge in 2020 so this move probably improves her reelection chances. The district is still reasonably conservative so I'm suspecting she'll have a tough race coming up.

There are a couple JoCo Republicans that sway between moderate and conservative - I'll become much concerned if any of them flip.

About 52% Clinton is a "conservative district" now? And - you mean Cox and Kesinger?

Based on what I know about the district, I'd argue there is an opportunity for a conservative to win a state level race in the 21st. 2020 will be difficult for all JoCo Republicans with Trump on the ballot, but at the same time, I think the GOP brand in the state will improve now that we can move on from Brownback and Kobach. I'm curious to see if someone more liberal tries to run against Sykes in the Democratic primary.

Yes - Cox and Kessinger are the two I had in mind, there are probably a couple more.

[smoltchanov]

It's usually not good news when people leave your party, but none of these are big surprises. Clayton has been critical of the GOP for several years - I always suspected that she wouldn't make the first move but would jump if others did first. Her seat is pretty Democratic.

Sykes was always going to face a strong primary challenge in 2020 so this move probably improves her reelection chances. The district is still reasonably conservative so I'm suspecting she'll have a tough race coming up.

There are a couple JoCo Republicans that sway between moderate and conservative - I'll become much concerned if any of them flip.

About 52% Clinton is a "conservative district" now? And - you mean Cox and Kesinger?

Based on what I know about the district, I'd argue there is an opportunity for a conservative to win a state level race in the 21st. 2020 will be difficult for all JoCo Republicans with Trump on the ballot, but at the same time, I think the GOP brand in the state will improve now that we can move on from Brownback and Kobach. I'm curious to see if someone more liberal tries to run against Sykes in the Democratic primary.

Yes - Cox and Kessinger are the two I had in mind, there are probably a couple more.

We will see in 2020. But what i am reasonably sure - Gallagher and Rooker would get reelected this year, would they have "D" instead of "R" after their names. In some parts of JoCo Republican label is really becoming toxic.

[smoltchanov]

All that discussion about party switches (real and possible) among Kansas GOP'ers gave me idea to try to create a sort of predictive analysis (pure Internet-based, of course) of Kansas legislature from this point of view: who may switch, and who (given character of their district) - unlikely.

Ratings used: ACU 2017 (there are no ratings for 2018 right now)

KPI (Kansas Policy Institute, conservative think tank) for 2018

Criterion of "moderation": Republican politician is a moderate if he/she is more moderate (according to these ratings) then at least one Democratic officeholder of corresponding chamber of legislature.  

So, in state Senate moderate Republican must get no more then 41.7 (Tom Holland) from KPI (interestingly, Barbara Bollier, with her rather generous 46.7, wouldn't fit, but it may be a statistical noise for this particular year), in House - no more then 54.2 (Henry Helgerson). For ACU ratings it's 33 for Senate (David Haley) and 50 for House (again Helgerson).


According to KPI in 2018 there were 9 moderate Republican state Senators. That includes Vicki Schmidt, who was elected statewide last year, and thus - is not state senator anymore (i know nothing abiut her replacement, Eric Rucker, besides him losing Treasurer race in 1990, but, as his opponent for replacement post was a conservative, may be he is moderate too). Of eight other - Sikes already switched (legitimately IMHO, her district is less liberal, then Bollier's, but still - about 52% Clinton in 2016), Doll is officially "Independent". Of 6 other - almost all (Berger, Givens, Hardy, McGinn and Taylor) will, most likely, continue to be Republicans, as Democratic label is, more or less, "poison" in ther districts (66-82% Trump), and may expect conservative challenge in 2020 primary. So, realistically, only Skubal may think about switching, but even his district is about 53% Trump.

ACU ratings are similar, but would also include Bollier and Goddard (50 in KPI). Bollier already switched, Goddard - unlikely to do (74% Trump district)


List of Republican "moderates" in House (according to KPI-2018) is very long (45 names), and i will not (obviously) list them all here, but only 31 are still  in House and still - Republicans (some - retired, other - lost primary or general, Clayton - switched) with losses concentrated in "most liberal" part of the list. Surprisingly, many of these moderates (though, usually, not the most liberal of them) come from very Republican (up to 88% Trump in some districts)  western part of state, and so - are vey unlikely to switch. Only in 5 districts Trump percentage was below 60, and only in two - the above mentioned Cox HD-17 and Kessinger HD-20 -  Clinton won with about 51%. So, considerable number of switches seems very unlikely, it's almost exclusively JoCo phenomenon (ACU's list is almost the same length, and while there are some differences - general conclusion holds).

[RogueBeaver]

Roberts considering retirement and Marshall would look at running if Roberts retires.

[Young Conservative]

Roberts considering retirement and Marshall would look at running if Roberts retires.

I'm not sure Marshall could win a statewide primary

[DINGO Joe]

Roberts considering retirement and Marshall would look at running if Roberts retires.

I'm not sure Marshall could win a statewide primary

You'd think at some point the rest of the state would like to have a Senator.

[tmthforu94]

Roberts considering retirement and Marshall would look at running if Roberts retires.

I'm not sure Marshall could win a statewide primary

Curious why you think that? I think he is probably best positioned of anyone to replace Roberts. He supports Trump but is still seen as more of an establishment figure after taking down Huelskamp. He’s from the 1st which has the most influence in GOP primaries, and he really doesn’t have any major record blemishes that will bring him down.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If Barry R. Grissom runs for Roberts' seat in 2020, does he have a chance of winning?

[smoltchanov]

If Barry R. Grissom runs for Roberts' seat in 2020, does he have a chance of winning?

IMHO: against "normal" candidate like Marshall - no, against Kobach (or his copy) - yes. Usually the 1st district (and other mostly rural areas) gives too big majority to Republican candidate to overcome, and only against Kobach-like candidates Democrats gets big enough surplus in cities and suburban areas to prevail.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1258829981662285825

In 2019, he blocked a Medicaid expansion. Earlier in 2020, he began to campaign for one because he thought it would lose him reelection.

[MT Treasurer]

^Trump doing worse than Brownback is hilarious. I guess Trends Are Real even in federal races in which Brownback isn’t on the ballot, who would’ve thought?

[lfromnj]

^Trump doing worse than Brownback is hilarious. I guess Trends Are Real even in federal races in which Brownback isn’t on the ballot, who would’ve thought?

Don't forget Mission Hills Kansas(Bollier's hometown)
Romney +40, Clinton +1, I wonder how Brownback did there, IIRC kobach got BTFO by 15 but Sharice Davis lost it to Yoder.

[MT Treasurer]

^Trump doing worse than Brownback is hilarious. I guess Trends Are Real even in federal races in which Brownback isn’t on the ballot, who would’ve thought?

Don't forget Mission Hills Kansas(Bollier's hometown)
Romney +40, Clinton +1, I wonder how Brownback did there, IIRC kobach got BTFO by 15 but Sharice Davis lost it to Yoder.

Ain't your daddy's Mission Hills anymore

Back in the good old days of 2011:

Forbes Magazine this week ranked the northeast Johnson County suburb — population 3,500 — as the country's third-most-affluent neighborhood. ...

Christensen said the study builds on previous Forbes' rankings that have listed Mission Hills is one of the five wealthiest communities in the country on a per capita basis. ...

The average home value in Mission Hills is $995,082.

There are 1,317 houses in Mission Hills. Almost a third — 415 — were valued at more at than $1 million. The average home worth more than $1 million was valued at $1.7 million, according to the Johnson County appraiser.

https://www.kansas.com/news/local/article1052955.html

[lfromnj]

^Trump doing worse than Brownback is hilarious. I guess Trends Are Real even in federal races in which Brownback isn’t on the ballot, who would’ve thought?

Don't forget Mission Hills Kansas(Bollier's hometown)
Romney +40, Clinton +1, I wonder how Brownback did there, IIRC kobach got BTFO by 15 but Sharice Davis lost it to Yoder.

Ain't your daddy's Mission Hills anymore

Back in the good old days of 2011:

Forbes Magazine this week ranked the northeast Johnson County suburb — population 3,500 — as the country's third-most-affluent neighborhood. ...

Christensen said the study builds on previous Forbes' rankings that have listed Mission Hills is one of the five wealthiest communities in the country on a per capita basis. ...

The average home value in Mission Hills is $995,082.

There are 1,317 houses in Mission Hills. Almost a third — 415 — were valued at more at than $1 million. The average home worth more than $1 million was valued at $1.7 million, according to the Johnson County appraiser.

https://www.kansas.com/news/local/article1052955.html

The new Democrat party folks Sorry RINO TOM. I wonder how much Bollier wins it by, she probably still wins it decently against Marshall due to hometown but Kobach might lose it by 30!

[lfromnj]

I love how atlas cares so much more about Elliot county Ky than Mission Hills Kansas despite them literally swapping places.