Did you think in the early election night 2008 that the race would be tighter? (user search)

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Did you think in the early election night 2008 that the race would be tighter? (search mode)

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Topic: Did you think in the early election night 2008 that the race would be tighter? (Read 1171 times)

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TexArkana
Junior Chimp

Posts: 6,385

Re: Did you think in the early election night 2008 that the race would be tighter?

« on: February 27, 2018, 05:57:09 PM »

Quote from: mathstatman on February 27, 2018, 02:50:20 PM

Yes, I expected about a 51/47 PV breakdown and a 338-200 EV breakdown (with McCain winning IN, NE-2, NC). The "Bradley effect" turned out to be less than I expected, and certainly less than for Tom Bradley (after whom the effect is named) in '82 or Doug Wilder in '89.

There was no Bradley effect at all in '08, Obama won by exactly the margin the polls predicted he would
(his lead in the polls stabilized at +6 to +8 and he won by 7.2).

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