Which Dem might "pull a Rubio" and lose their homestate primary?

[Blue3]

Which Dem might "pull a Rubio" and lose their homestate primary?

I feel like Kamala Harris a possibility, especially if Sanders runs again.

Warren and Booker are also possibilities.

[here2view]

Well, I won't be voting for Warren in the primary. I like her as a Senator but she is not that electable in terms of a Presidential candidate, and I'm not going to support someone who I like but don't think would win the general election.

[Mr. Morden]

Presumably, the majority of the field will lose their home state primary.  Usually only 2-4 candidates manage to win even a single state.  I would guess that whoever ends up in the top three nationally will win their home state, while 4th place and lower will all lose their home state.  The 4th place candidate usually doesn't win *any* state, neither their home state nor anywhere else.

Also, you could have some states with multiple candidates, like Garretti and Harris in CA and Cuomo and Gillibrand (and de Blasio?) in NY.  At most one person can win a given state, so....

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cuomo.

There are a lot of other ones but I don’t take them seriously.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Cuomo, though if he runs, I expect him to drop out after a humiliating 8th place finish in Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

I mean, if the question is who is most likely to run and not win their home state, then the obvious answer is Delaney, since he's already running and has no real chance of winning Maryland.  But he's also very likely to drop out early.  So to fulfill this, does the candidate have to still be in the race when their state's primary is held?  Because in that case, you've got to look at which states have primaries on Super Tuesday or earlier.  Later then that, and the candidates who aren't doing well will have already dropped out.

[Nyssus]

Delaney, Cuomo, Gillibrand, McAuliffe, Chafee, O'Malley, Warren, Booker.

[i4indyguy]

Presumably, the majority of the field will lose their home state primary.  Usually only 2-4 candidates manage to win even a single state.  I would guess that whoever ends up in the top three nationally will win their home state, while 4th place and lower will all lose their home state.  The 4th place candidate usually doesn't win *any* state, neither their home state nor anywhere else.

This. Also factor in that states with very late primaries will (may*) be voting for a runaway leader almost certain to win, so this is as much a question of *who* will win the whole sheebang.

[TrumpBritt24]

Delaney is a given. He's the damn state rep. and people were still asking who he was.

McAuliffe, being from Virginia, is really at a disadvantage. That thing is a chaotic tossup if 10+ candidates are still left.

Both Gillibrand or Cuomo, just because their campaigns are both being viewed by consensus as either victorious-or-bust. Likely bust for both, I say.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No way in hell that Bernie beats Kamala is California.

[Joey1996]

Booker

[Rookie Yinzer]

No way in hell that Bernie beats Kamala is California.

I HATE this term but California is a Social Justice State and Kamala is unmatched in her advocacy for those issues since she got to Washington. Wailing about breaking up banks is not going to make a dent in their primary. Hillary had a plethora of things going on with her that made the state as close as it got.

[President Johnson]

Both New Yorkers: Kirsten Gilibrand and Andrew Cuomo. They might also against Harris, Warren, Biden or Bernard.

[LabourJersey]

You can't predict this unless you know how the momentum in the campaigns go, really.

[TDAS04]

I could see it happening to Harris. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Presumably, the majority of the field will lose their home state primary.  Usually only 2-4 candidates manage to win even a single state.  I would guess that whoever ends up in the top three nationally will win their home state, while 4th place and lower will all lose their home state.  The 4th place candidate usually doesn't win *any* state, neither their home state nor anywhere else.

This hasn't been true in the last two contested primaries with at least 4 candidates (2016 Dem Primary only had 3 candidates left by the time of the first contest, so we skip over that here) - in 2016 Kasich carried Ohio (or if you count Rubio as 4th, he won MN/DC/PR), and in 2012 Ron Paul won the Virgin Islands, which is effectively a state for the purposes of the primary.

[Mr. Morden]

This hasn't been true in the last two contested primaries with at least 4 candidates (2016 Dem Primary only had 3 candidates left by the time of the first contest, so we skip over that here) - in 2016 Kasich carried Ohio (or if you count Rubio as 4th, he won MN/DC/PR), and in 2012 Ron Paul won the Virgin Islands, which is effectively a state for the purposes of the primary.

Paul didn't really win the Virgin Islands.  The Virgin Islands caucuses that year had direct election of delegates, so people were casting votes for delegates rather than presidential candidates.  The delegates who were supporting Paul collectively got more votes than the delegates supporting Romney, true, but that's just an artifact of the fact that the Paul campaign was stupid, and ran too many candidates, so the vote got split too many different ways.  I guess you could spin that to call it a "win" for Paul, but that seems like a reach.

In any case, I'd also say that discounting the 2016 Dem. race because the 4th place candidate dropped out before Iowa seems rather artificial.  The 2016 Dem. race was an "open" contest in the sense that no incumbent president was running.  And there were more than 3 candidates running.  Why does it not count because Webb dropped out before Iowa?  If he'd dropped out one day after Iowa, it would count?

In any case, however you slice it, in the majority of presidential primary races from 1996 to 2016, no more than three candidates have won any states.  And in zero cases over that span have more than three candidates won their home state.  (E.g., Clark won OK in 2004, but not his own home state.  Rubio won MN, DC, Puerto Rico in 2016, but not his home state.)

[Medal506]

Probably Elizabeth Warren