DNC/RNC host city watch: LATEST: DNC shortlist: Houston, Miami, Milwaukee

[Adam Griffin]

They tried Philly in a bid to hold Pennsylvania, didn't work.

Or how 'bout 2012 when both parties lost the states by narrow margins?

Not sold on the choices making that much difference anymore,as long as the state isn't a Safe State.

If you arbitrarily measure from 1964 onward, both parties have won the states their conventions were in 50% of the time and lost 50% of the time.

From 1932 onward, Dems maintain the 50/50 (11/11) and GOP lost 55% of the time (12/10).

From 1856 onward (first election where both parties existed), Dems essentially break even by losing 51% (21/20); GOP wins 63% of the time (26/15), thanks in no small part to them consistently holding conventions in northern states throughout the 19th century.

Observations:

10% of the time, both parties have lost
22% of the time, both parties have won
68% of the time, one party won and one party lost

• 27% of the time, Dems won/GOP lost
• 41% of the time, GOP won/Dems lost

Only 4 out of the 26 elections in the past century have had conventions where either both parties won or lost their respective convention states. In the remaining 22, one party won while one party lost. Prior to that, both parties winning their conventions' states occurred about half the time.

[Adam Griffin]

I hope I'm not the first person to mention this, but surely the location of the convention has absolutely no effect on the outcome of the Presidential race in 2020?

if you're so sh**tscared of having a conference in one of America's largest cities because your opponents will attack you for it, there's really no point being in politics is there?

Just another friendly reminder to everybody:

If you arbitrarily measure from 1964 onward, both parties have won the states their conventions were in 50% of the time and lost 50% of the time.

From 1932 onward, Dems maintain the 50/50 (11/11) and GOP lost 55% of the time (12/10).

From 1856 onward (first election where both parties existed), Dems essentially break even by losing 51% (21/20); GOP wins 63% of the time (26/15), thanks in no small part to them consistently holding conventions in northern states throughout the 19th century.

Observations:

10% of the time, both parties have lost
22% of the time, both parties have won
68% of the time, one party won and one party lost

• 27% of the time, Dems won/GOP lost
• 41% of the time, GOP won/Dems lost

Only 4 out of the 26 elections in the past century have had conventions where either both parties won or lost their respective convention states. In the remaining 22, one party won while one party lost. Prior to that, both parties winning their conventions' states occurred about half the time.

With that being said, hold it in Atlanta! Obviously the state that gets it (assuming it isn't a safe one) gets plenty of campaign resources put into it as well, and GA is ready to flip in 2020.

[Adam Griffin]