Trump Re-elect Map?

[Burke859]

Here's one possible option, with explanation to follow:

Trump: 302
Democrat: 236

This isn't the model that we typically see envisioned, but here's my reasoning.

1) Upper Midwest moves left. It's elastic, it tends to vote against incumbents, Trump's numbers in Iowa have cratered compared to his numbers elsewhere, and Republicans did horribly in a recent special election in Wisconsin.  I say Upper Midwest is the most likely region to have a huge swing against Trump.

2) Michigan and Pennsylvania move right.  This is what happened in 2004, when GWB did better in those two states versus his showing in 2000, while doing worse in Wisconsin.  Michigan and Pennsylvania may move right due to Trump governing like a normal Republican, thus allowing right-of-center presidential ballot undervoters from 2016 to vote for Trump this time around.  In 2004, GWB recovered votes in these states that he lost in 2000 when he ran as a normal Republican in 2004 instead of a more populist Republican like in 2000.

3) Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin voters break largely for Trump.  These voters basically protest-voted due to Trump seeming like a crazy person.  Now that he seems like a normal GOP POTUS, they come home.  This flips New Hampshire, Maine, and Nevada.

4) No other state results change.  Colorado and Virginia stay Democratic and the Pacific Northwest sees a big swing against Trump.  Texas goes back to being solidly Republican and Ohio remains solidly Republican as well.

Thoughts?

[Lord Admirale]

Takes a miracle

[Karpatsky]

Very close victory (270-268), not that hard to imagine

[Mail-order President]

After the 2018 Midterms, the Dems gain a seat with a tied 50-50 senate.  They almost win the house, 220-215.  Trump becomes more moderate and appeals to more college educated whites while keeping most of his WWC base.

The Mueller investigation doesn't turn anything up directly tied to Trump.

The Democratic primaries are very fractured with Warren getting nominated at a brokered convention.  Warren is seen as uninspiring and divisive.

Trump barely loses Michigan and Minnesota, but gains NH and Nevada.  PV is Nixon/Kennedy 1960 close.

Trump/Pence - 300 / 48.5%
Warren/Booker - 238 / 48.3%

[King Lear]

Scenario 1

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 290 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
Democratic Nominee: 248 Electoral Votes (51% of PV)
This scenario involves Trump losing the Popular vote by a larger margin then 2016 (3 points instead of 2 points), while holding all his 2016 states except Michigan. This scenario would most likely follow Republicans losing the House and Senate in 2018, and would see Democrats manage to maintain congress while Trump narrowly wins reelection.

Scenario 2

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 328 Electoral Votes (50% of PV)
Democratic Nominee: 210 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
This scenario involves Trump winning the Popular vote by 2 points, and flipping New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine. This scenario would probably follow a good midterm for Republicans in which they gain several senate seats and hold the house by a large margin, and would probably see Republicans expand their majorities even more on Trumps coattails.

[bomberswarm2]

After the 2018 Midterms, the Dems gain a seat with a tied 50-50 senate.

No chance. Democrats are defending 10 seats in red states. Republicans are only defending one seat in a swing state. Democrats will be lucky to avoid Republicans picking up 5 or 6 seats.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

After the 2018 Midterms, the Dems gain a seat with a tied 50-50 senate.

No chance. Democrats are defending 10 seats in red states. Republicans are only defending one seat in a swing state. Democrats will be lucky to avoid Republicans picking up 5 or 6 seats.

DAE BAD MAP FOR DEMOCRATS!!!!!

[Dr. Arch]

After the 2018 Midterms, the Dems gain a seat with a tied 50-50 senate.

No chance. Democrats are defending 10 seats in red states. Republicans are only defending one seat in a swing state. Democrats will be lucky to avoid Republicans picking up 5 or 6 seats.

Oh dear. Another one of these guys.

[here2view]

After the 2018 Midterms, the Dems gain a seat with a tied 50-50 senate.

No chance. Democrats are defending 10 seats in red states. Republicans are only defending one seat in a swing state. Democrats will be lucky to avoid Republicans picking up 5 or 6 seats.

Bob Casey is dead on arrival since Trump won PA IN 2016!!1!!1!! Republican super majority by 2020!

[jamestroll]

Here is a cool map of a 269 to 269 tie while Democrats are winning the popular vote fairly bigly.

Georgia and Texas swing even further to Democrats. Georgia voting 50 to 48 Trump and Texas voting 54 to 44 Trump but Georgia being too inelastic and Texas being too Republican to actually flip.

Florida disappointing us again.

We barely win many competitive rust belt states while narrowly missing out on one (PA in this hypothetical).

Hopefully Democrats have a majority of house delegations..

[pbrower2a]

At this point the only election that Donald Trump can win is a rigged election, and for that a map is irrelevant.
 

[Joey1996]

Wisconsin is more likely to remain red than Michigan

[Mail-order President]

After the 2018 Midterms, the Dems gain a seat with a tied 50-50 senate.

No chance. Democrats are defending 10 seats in red states. Republicans are only defending one seat in a swing state. Democrats will be lucky to avoid Republicans picking up 5 or 6 seats.

Most of those seats are pretty purple and/or have popular incumbents.  The Republicans would be lucky to gain more than 3 seats.

[Skill and Chance]

Scenario 1

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 290 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
Democratic Nominee: 248 Electoral Votes (51% of PV)
This scenario involves Trump losing the Popular vote by a larger margin then 2016 (3 points instead of 2 points), while holding all his 2016 states except Michigan. This scenario would most likely follow Republicans losing the House and Senate in 2018, and would see Democrats manage to maintain congress while Trump narrowly wins reelection.

Scenario 2

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 328 Electoral Votes (50% of PV)
Democratic Nominee: 210 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
This scenario involves Trump winning the Popular vote by 2 points, and flipping New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine. This scenario would probably follow a good midterm for Republicans in which they gain several senate seats and hold the house by a large margin, and would probably see Republicans expand their majorities even more on Trumps coattails.

I actually think Scenario 1 is more likely to be the case if Republicans still hold congress, because it basically means nothing has changed since 2016, Democrats narrowly "winning" on paper without getting to control anything, but Republicans never getting a big enough majority to actually do much of anything legislatively.  The 2018 House results would probably be something like 225R/210D with a D+4 generic ballot.  The Senate probably goes 53R/47D in 2018 and then back down to 51R/49D in 2020.

For scenario 2 to happen, the political environment has to shake up enough for Trump to actually get to majority approval.  The most logical way for that to happen at this point is that next year is a Dem blowout where they go +50 in the House and flip the Senate with NV+AZ+TX, but then Trump goes all in on "the era of small government is over" and makes a bunch of infrastructure and health care deals to win back working class Dem/indie support.

[King Lear]

Scenario 1

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 290 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
Democratic Nominee: 248 Electoral Votes (51% of PV)
This scenario involves Trump losing the Popular vote by a larger margin then 2016 (3 points instead of 2 points), while holding all his 2016 states except Michigan. This scenario would most likely follow Republicans losing the House and Senate in 2018, and would see Democrats manage to maintain congress while Trump narrowly wins reelection.

Scenario 2

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 328 Electoral Votes (50% of PV)
Democratic Nominee: 210 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
This scenario involves Trump winning the Popular vote by 2 points, and flipping New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine. This scenario would probably follow a good midterm for Republicans in which they gain several senate seats and hold the house by a large margin, and would probably see Republicans expand their majorities even more on Trumps coattails.

I actually think Scenario 1 is more likely to be the case if Republicans still hold congress, because it basically means nothing has changed since 2016, Democrats narrowly "winning" on paper without getting to control anything, but Republicans never getting a big enough majority to actually do much of anything legislatively.  The 2018 House results would probably be something like 225R/210D with a D+4 generic ballot.  The Senate probably goes 53R/47D in 2018 and then back down to 51R/49D in 2020.

For scenario 2 to happen, the political environment has to shake up enough for Trump to actually get to majority approval.  The most logical way for that to happen at this point is that next year is a Dem blowout where they go +50 in the House and flip the Senate with NV+AZ+TX, but then Trump goes all in on "the era of small government is over" and makes a bunch of infrastructure and health care deals to win back working class Dem/indie support.

That’s some very thoughtful analysis, I’ve never looked at it that way, but it actually makes sense that if Democrats flip the House and Senate, Trump may see a increase in support because of either him moderating in the face of a divided government and/or a Democratic Congress going to hard on him by seeking impeachment. On the other hand if Republicans have a good midterm, trumps support may go down due to the electorate slowly getting tired of unified Republican Government.

[cvparty]

After the 2018 Midterms, the Dems gain a seat with a tied 50-50 senate.

No chance. Democrats are defending 10 seats in red states. Republicans are only defending one seat in a swing state. Democrats will be lucky to avoid Republicans picking up 5 or 6 seats.

king lear is that u?

[Skill and Chance]

Scenario 1

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 290 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
Democratic Nominee: 248 Electoral Votes (51% of PV)
This scenario involves Trump losing the Popular vote by a larger margin then 2016 (3 points instead of 2 points), while holding all his 2016 states except Michigan. This scenario would most likely follow Republicans losing the House and Senate in 2018, and would see Democrats manage to maintain congress while Trump narrowly wins reelection.

Scenario 2

2020 Presidential Election Results:
Donald Trump: 328 Electoral Votes (50% of PV)
Democratic Nominee: 210 Electoral Votes (48% of PV)
This scenario involves Trump winning the Popular vote by 2 points, and flipping New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine. This scenario would probably follow a good midterm for Republicans in which they gain several senate seats and hold the house by a large margin, and would probably see Republicans expand their majorities even more on Trumps coattails.

I actually think Scenario 1 is more likely to be the case if Republicans still hold congress, because it basically means nothing has changed since 2016, Democrats narrowly "winning" on paper without getting to control anything, but Republicans never getting a big enough majority to actually do much of anything legislatively.  The 2018 House results would probably be something like 225R/210D with a D+4 generic ballot.  The Senate probably goes 53R/47D in 2018 and then back down to 51R/49D in 2020.

For scenario 2 to happen, the political environment has to shake up enough for Trump to actually get to majority approval.  The most logical way for that to happen at this point is that next year is a Dem blowout where they go +50 in the House and flip the Senate with NV+AZ+TX, but then Trump goes all in on "the era of small government is over" and makes a bunch of infrastructure and health care deals to win back working class Dem/indie support.

That’s some very thoughtful analysis, I’ve never looked at it that way, but it actually makes sense that if Democrats flip the House and Senate, Trump may see a increase in support because of either him moderating in the face of a divided government and/or a Democratic Congress going to hard on him by seeking impeachment. On the other hand if Republicans have a good midterm, trumps support may go down due to the electorate slowly getting tired of unified Republican Government.

Yeah, and Trump's worst case scenario is that Republicans barely hold everything in 2018 while losing big in the nationwide House vote and then we go into a recession in 2019-20.  Between wildly energized Dems and working class independents feeling betrayed, that's your elusive double digit presidential win right there.

[Burke859]

I would say this is his max:

Trump wins 333-205.

Here, Trump keeps his WWC support from 2016, gains some white collar whites to win MN, and wins most of the Johnson and McMullin voters to swing NH, ME, NV, and NM.  I know NM is a stretch, but Johnson got 9 percent there.

There's an interesting symmetry about this map.

[Skill and Chance]

I would say this is his max:

Trump wins 333-205.

Here, Trump keeps his WWC support from 2016, gains some white collar whites to win MN, and wins most of the Johnson and McMullin voters to swing NH, ME, NV, and NM.  I know NM is a stretch, but Johnson got 9 percent there.

There's an interesting symmetry about this map.

If he's flipped NM, why not RI?  I actually agree with you on NM before VA, though.  The possibility of Trump doing what he did to Northern MN/Western PA in 2016 to Northern NM in 2020 is significant if he is nationally popular.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I would say this is his max:

Trump wins 333-205.

Here, Trump keeps his WWC support from 2016, gains some white collar whites to win MN, and wins most of the Johnson and McMullin voters to swing NH, ME, NV, and NM.  I know NM is a stretch, but Johnson got 9 percent there.

There's an interesting symmetry about this map.

I would flip Colorado and maaaaaaaybe Virginia if he's winning that comfortably.

[Skill and Chance]

What I’d expect the map to look like:

Gillibrand/Booker - 51.0%, 259 EV
Trump/Pence - 47.3%, 279 EV WINNER

His absolute best-case scenario:

Wins 324-214, but still loses the PV by 1-2.

You don't think there's potential for a Bill Clinton 1996 scenario for Trump if the economy is still booming in 2020?

Trump/Pence 51.1% 366 EV
Democrats 46.3% 172 EV

House 220D/215R (R+25)
Senate 50R/50D (R+1)

If he gets reelected, IMO this is the most likely way it happens.

[libertpaulian]

There's not a chance in hell Trump wins Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Connecticut.

[Medal506]

Here's one possible option, with explanation to follow:

Trump: 302
Democrat: 236

This isn't the model that we typically see envisioned, but here's my reasoning.

1) Upper Midwest moves left. It's elastic, it tends to vote against incumbents, Trump's numbers in Iowa have cratered compared to his numbers elsewhere, and Republicans did horribly in a recent special election in Wisconsin.  I say Upper Midwest is the most likely region to have a huge swing against Trump.

2) Michigan and Pennsylvania move right.  This is what happened in 2004, when GWB did better in those two states versus his showing in 2000, while doing worse in Wisconsin.  Michigan and Pennsylvania may move right due to Trump governing like a normal Republican, thus allowing right-of-center presidential ballot undervoters from 2016 to vote for Trump this time around.  In 2004, GWB recovered votes in these states that he lost in 2000 when he ran as a normal Republican in 2004 instead of a more populist Republican like in 2000.

3) Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin voters break largely for Trump.  These voters basically protest-voted due to Trump seeming like a crazy person.  Now that he seems like a normal GOP POTUS, they come home.  This flips New Hampshire, Maine, and Nevada.

4) No other state results change.  Colorado and Virginia stay Democratic and the Pacific Northwest sees a big swing against Trump.  Texas goes back to being solidly Republican and Ohio remains solidly Republican as well.

Thoughts?

I would switch Michigan to Democrat and Wisconsin to Republican

[pbrower2a]

Trump does not win New Mexico, the political mirror image of West Virginia.

He has pointlessly insulted Mexican-Americans... the state used to vote Republican when the ethnic mix was majority-Anglo, when Albuquerque was a small city and ranching interests dominated political life. That is over. 

[TrumpBritt24]

It's hard to predict anything based on how varying the Democratic field is in terms of quality, but if I take my personal definition of an average rumored candidate, I think Trump still pulls off the win, just barely. - http://www.270towin.com/maps/eWk9j