Senate/House Polling Hype Thread

[LimoLiberal]

Recent Public polling from:

ND - nada
IN - nada
MT - nada
VA - nada
WV - nada
OH - nada
WI - nada
NJ - nada
NV - nada


it's been almost 100% MO, CA, NY, TN, and FL with sprinklings from MI, UT, and AZ and TX. Very few of the battlegrounds have been polled.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strongly agree.

[I’m not Stu]

The CA Senate primary needs more polling with more than just two candidates. The two major Democrats' numbers fall significantly in polls with more candidates.

[UWS]

Strongly agree.

Strongly agree too. The moreover that the first senate primary of 2018 is approaching since it will be held on March 6 in Texas.

[MT Treasurer]

Totally agree. I know for a fact that there is private polling going on in Montana and North Dakota, but we need to get public polls as well. We’ll get a public Big Sky poll from UM next month.

[henster]

Some states have laws against robocallers and I think MT makes you post a bond or something to conduct a poll. So there is a reason you see far less polls from certain states.

[cinyc]

Totally agree. I know for a fact that there is private polling going on in Montana and North Dakota, but we need to get public polls as well. We’ll get a public Big Sky poll from UM next month.

If I’m not mistaken, North Dakota has a ban on robo-polling, and Montana’s polling rules are pretty strict. I’m not going to get suckered into doing more Google Surveys - though if someone wants to try their hand at it in North Dakota, be my guest. The Montana special election Google Surveys were crap.

[LimoLiberal]

Can we turn this into a Senate polling Megathread or something like that?

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Thank God someone finally decided to poll FL, the polling drought there was really annoying.

We have the 2018 senate polls sub-board and individual threads for each race so I don't think we need a Senate polling Megathread. We can turn it into a senate polling hype thread maybe?

[LimoLiberal]

Wisconsin Marquette Law School Poll today:
https://twitter.com/MikeGousha/status/970659143362207744

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing

[Politician]

For once, Limo is right. Seriously, who needs to know Gillibrand leads by 35?

[Blackacre]

Gravis is going to release IN/FL polls soon. Given how D-friendly they’ve been in those states in the past, I’m gonna guess Donnelly +12 and Nelson +7 or something like that.

Finally! A post-primary public poll in Indiana.

As for Florida, I think I said before that I would need three polls in a row to have a Nelson lead of +4 or higher, or 3 similarly-sized Scott leads in a row, to change my perception of the race from Tilts D.

[MT Treasurer]

Gravis is also working on a Montana poll right now. Any guesses? My prediction: Tester +7, Gianforte +2 (with many “undecideds”).

[Arkansas Yankee]

Gravis is going to release IN/FL polls soon. Given how D-friendly they’ve been in those states in the past, I’m gonna guess Donnelly +12 and Nelson +7 or something like that.

Finally! A post-primary public poll in Indiana.

As for Florida, I think I said before that I would need three polls in a row to have a Nelson lead of +4 or higher, or 3 similarly-sized Scott leads in a row, to change my perception of the race from Tilts D.

There are 3 polls with Scott +4 or more:

5/28 FAU Scott +4:  https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt--politics/fau-poll-scott-edging-nelson-senate-race-trump-approval/f1R3VtiD14RG4HwpjeQ5iI/
       
6/4 Cherry Communications. Scott +5: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=179

6/11. Morning Consult. Scott +1: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/11/florida-senate-scott-nelson-poll-635358

6/12 St. Leo University Scott +6: http://sunshinestatenews.com/story/rick-scott-holds-solid-lead-over-bill-nelson-new-poll

So, do you change from tilt D

At worst for Scott based on actual Florida polls it is a toss up.   At best tilt R

[Politician]

Gravis is also working on a Montana poll right now. Any guesses? My prediction: Tester +7, Gianforte +2 (with many “undecideds”).

Guess: Tester +6, Gianforte +4.

[DemocraticKing]

Gravis is going to release IN/FL polls soon. Given how D-friendly they’ve been in those states in the past, I’m gonna guess Donnelly +12 and Nelson +7 or something like that.

Finally! A post-primary public poll in Indiana.

As for Florida, I think I said before that I would need three polls in a row to have a Nelson lead of +4 or higher, or 3 similarly-sized Scott leads in a row, to change my perception of the race from Tilts D.

There are 3 polls with Scott +4 or more:

5/28 FAU Scott +4:  https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt--politics/fau-poll-scott-edging-nelson-senate-race-trump-approval/f1R3VtiD14RG4HwpjeQ5iI/
       
6/4 Cherry Communications. Scott +5: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=179

6/11. Morning Consult. Scott +1: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/11/florida-senate-scott-nelson-poll-635358

6/12 St. Leo University Scott +6: http://sunshinestatenews.com/story/rick-scott-holds-solid-lead-over-bill-nelson-new-poll

So, do you change from tilt D

At worst for Scott based on actual Florida polls it is a toss up.   At best tilt R

This list could double as a sampling of bad pollsters.

[Politician]

Gravis is going to release IN/FL polls soon. Given how D-friendly they’ve been in those states in the past, I’m gonna guess Donnelly +12 and Nelson +7 or something like that.

Finally! A post-primary public poll in Indiana.

As for Florida, I think I said before that I would need three polls in a row to have a Nelson lead of +4 or higher, or 3 similarly-sized Scott leads in a row, to change my perception of the race from Tilts D.

There are 3 polls with Scott +4 or more:

5/28 FAU Scott +4:  https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt--politics/fau-poll-scott-edging-nelson-senate-race-trump-approval/f1R3VtiD14RG4HwpjeQ5iI/
       
6/4 Cherry Communications. Scott +5: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=179

6/11. Morning Consult. Scott +1: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/11/florida-senate-scott-nelson-poll-635358

6/12 St. Leo University Scott +6: http://sunshinestatenews.com/story/rick-scott-holds-solid-lead-over-bill-nelson-new-poll

So, do you change from tilt D

At worst for Scott based on actual Florida polls it is a toss up.   At best tilt R

This list could double as a sampling of bad pollsters.

[Sir Mohamed]

Gravis is also working on a Montana poll right now. Any guesses? My prediction: Tester +7, Gianforte +2 (with many “undecideds”).

Bold prediction: Tester +8 and Gianforte +1

[Pollster]

The lack of polling of Montana is somewhat surprising. It is an easy state to poll (one of the few where a majority of the population still has landlines, I believe) and can often be done relatively inexpensively.

My guess would be that most internal polling has been stable, leading one side to not want to release their numbers, and the other to see no need to.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It's Gravis. Junk pollster. Watch the result is Rosendale + 8 Willians + 12

[Gass3268]

Get hype!

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1009166508499619840

[ON Progressive]

Get hype!

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1009166508499619840

WV-03? HYPE HYPE HYPE HYPE

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

wtf monmouth. you're supposed to keep ojeda secret, not alert the gop that he could be a threat.

God bless monmouth for these polls tho

[Gone to Carolina]

Man I was just thinking the other day how I'd really appreciate a public poll here. Given the only thing we've had is Ojeda's vague internals (with big undecideds).

[Politician]

Prediction: Manchin +6, Miller +2