Mr. Illini maps Illinois: A Megathread

[Mr. Illini]

Starting a thread for 2018 maps from myself. I'll also be throwing in some maps from other years that I deem relevant as I anxiously await Election Day.

[Mr. Illini]

First off, as we gear up for the Cook County Assessor's race (you wouldn't think it would be an exciting office, but it is Cook County, after all), I've mapped a race that can give us some clues about what to expect on March 20.

This year, Joe Berrios, the incumbent, head of the Cook Co Dems, and machine favorite, faces off against progressive challenger Fritz Kaegi. Similarly, in 2010, Berrios faced a progressive challenger, that time in the general election.

Forrest Claypool, a progressive favorite (at the time - perhaps not so any more), jumped into the race as an independent. Berrios received machine support, including that of Michael Madigan. Claypool was backed by progressives like Jan Schakowsky. They faced Republican Sharon Strobeck-Eckersall. The final tally was Berrios (D) 48 - Claypool (I) 32 - Strobeck-Eckersall (R) 18.

The result: as is often the case in Chicago politics, unfortunately, clear racial lines exist. Berrios dominated communities of color - latina/o and black areas, predominately. Claypool performed well in white progressive areas like Evanston, Oak Park, River Forest, Lyons, Skokie, etc, while also winning in more moderate white areas like the north shore and near northwest suburbs like Elk Grove. The Republican predictably picked up Barrington and Lemont while also peeling off a couple of ~30% victories in areas like Schaumburg and Palatine as a result of the split Democratic vote. Berrios won the city with about 60% of the vote.

The map depicts a township map of Cook, with Chicago treated as one township. I am hoping to add Chicago detail.

Next month, expect challenger Kaegi to do very well in the communities that Claypool did well in. He won't receive many crossover GOP voters like Claypool may have in 2010, but he will also have the advantage of having a (D) next to his name, unlike Claypool, which makes a big difference in Cook County.

[Mr. Illini]

Below, the Chicago detail on the race above - 2010 Cook Co Assessor. Again, the trend continues: the whiter the area, generally the higher the Claypool percentage. This is even more true in city limits where the Republican is not a factor.

Berrios carried black and latina/o areas on the south and west/northwest sides. He also narrowly carried diverse areas on the north side, such as Uptown, Edgewater, and Rogers Park. Claypool carried Irish communities on the far southwest and northwest sides as well as white lakefront wards containing neighborhoods like River North, Old Town, Lincoln Park, Lakeview, and Lincoln Square.

Next month, I do not expect that Berrios will enjoy margins in black areas that he received in 2010. This was likely a result of him having been nominated as the Democratic candidate. I predict that he will win those same black wards next month, but with numbers in the 50s rather than 80s, which makes a big difference for Kaegi.

The city alone:



And the city detail added to the county map (sorry for transparency lost ):

[Mr. Illini]

Also, we'll revisit a map that I shared elsewhere previously, the 2010 IL Senate Dem Primary map, including the inner ring of Chicagoland: Cook, Lake, and Will Counties.

This is relevant because I predict we will be able to see overlap in patterns in this map and in the Democratic primary for Governor this year.

Alexi won the city as well as black, latina/o, and white working class suburbs. Hoffman did well in white wealthier suburbs and especially white progressive suburbs.

I can see something similar happening with Pritzker filling Alexi's role and Biss filling Hoffman's role. Pritzker will take the two jurisdictions that went to Jackson. Where I think Kennedy can pick up ground is in the near western suburbs as well as potentially down in Will County and the northern portion of Lake.

[Mr. Illini]

With Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle up for re-election this year, I mapped out her momentous victory in the 2010 Democratic primary, running as a reformer and solidly ousting incumbent Todd Stroger and defeating several other challengers. I anticipate that she will have a similarly solid victory this year despite her political defeat on the soda tax issue.

The only other candidate that picked up jurisdictions was Terrence O'Brien. The areas he picked up - Stickney, Worth, etc - have disproportionately high Irish populations, which makes sense. He also did well in latina/o areas, which I cannot explain other than to hypothesize that it was opposition to Preckwinkle's pushing for criminal justice reform and the tension that exists between the black and latina/o communities over that issue.

Preckwinkle, running as a reformer, did best in white, wealthy, liberal areas such as Evanston, Oak Park, and New Trier (towns of Glencoe, Winnetka, Kenilworth, Wilmette).

I thought about adding city detail, but it looks like that is actually even more boring than the county township map below. Preckwinkle was weaker in certain areas, but she still won every ward. This surprised me, as I would have thought that Irish-dominant wards would have at least followed their suburban counterparts in voting for O'Brien, and was interested to see if any latina/o areas did as well as to see if Brown/Stroger picked up any black wards. None of that happened.

[Mr. Illini]

Maybe not as interesting for some as it is for me, but here is the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District primary on the Dem side from 2016. Durkan won and is up for a six-year term this year (was elected to a two-year term in the map below).

We see a bit of a unique pattern here. Racial lines are clear as usual, but they aren't as clear as they typically are. In fact, there is not complete unification among any racial group even though the patterns are still evident.

Among white areas, we see a division between more blue collar white areas - such as Orland, Worth, Lemont, and the far northwest and southwest sides - and the wealthy north shore, upper middle class northwest suburbs, and wealthy lakefront Chicago wards including Lakeview, Lincoln Park, and the Near North Side. Generally, the former went for Durkan and the latter went to Greenhaw. Why this is is not precisely clear. Durkan and Greenhaw took similar approaches to major environmental issues and Greenhaw had the endorsement of the machine, which usually deters wealthier white areas.

We also see some differences in black areas. The south side and south suburbs largely went for Durkan, but we see dissent among black wards on the lakefront. This is probably explainable by the fact that Greenhaw is a U of C professor and presumably resides in Hyde Park, so that is his home turf. Why the rest of the south side didn't go that way as well - since it usually leans toward machine-backed candidates, is not clear.

The southwest and northwest sides are historically largely dominated by Hispanic populations, as are a number of western Cook suburbs. These areas, however, did not vote similarly here. The northwest side - with large numbers of Puerto Rican voters - went to Greenhaw. The southwest side and the western Cook suburbs went to Durkan.

You may notice that the third candidate - Seo - picked up two wards in the city. Seo is of Asian descent and he won the ward that contains Chinatown. He also won a lone ward on the northwest side - why this is is not clear.

Apologies for the spelling errors in the images

[muon2]

Labor (CFL and allies) endorsed Durkan. If Greenhow was the machine candidate, why would the 13th Ward be all in for Durkan?

[Mr. Illini]

Labor (CFL and allies) endorsed Durkan. If Greenhow was the machine candidate, why would the 13th Ward be all in for Durkan?

I don't know - do you have any thoughts as to why? Greenhaw was endorsed by the Cook Co Dems.

[Illiniwek]

Amazing work man. Would love to see a preview of the primary in the 3rd if you can.

[Mr. Illini]

Amazing work man. Would love to see a preview of the primary in the 3rd if you can.

Thank you. I'll see what I can do. Will election data is not as conducive as Cook's. :/

[Illiniwek]

Amazing work man. Would love to see a preview of the primary in the 3rd if you can.

Thank you. I'll see what I can do. Will election data is not as conducive as Cook's. :/

Copy that!

[Mr. Illini]

Not directly related to 2018, but if you haven't seen it, check out Miles' excellent work on the 2014 and 2016 races in Chicago on Twitter!

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/969718784947904512

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/969783857439485952

[Mr. Illini]

In addition to more general comments over in the megathread, I hope to post some geography-specific comments in this thread as the results come in. Please join me!

[Mr. Illini]

Pritzker looks ready to win Lake County.

Rotering may also win Lake for Dem AG, her home county.

[Green Line]

Pls do IL-03 map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pls do IL-03 map.

[Mr. Illini]

Chicago has posted their detailed results, though the site is not cooperating.

One early observation: Biss won a number of north side wards along the lake

First maps tonight! If this site will begin cooperating.

[Mr. Illini]

Miles is already killing it with a number of precinct maps, so first I am going to post here, followed by my thoughts.

All credit to Miles/DD!

IL-03


There is a pretty clear split between the city of Chicago and the rest here. Obviously the machine did its job in getting Chicagoans out for Lipinski. Over all, college educated voters went for Newman with non going for Lipinski, which Miles also noted. I am surprised that Lipinski did not do better in Lemont - a historically middle class town containing a good number of Irish and former Chicagoans. Generally a machine-sympathetic area.

IL-GOV (Chicago)


Wow did Biss do well on the north side! As you can see above, I hopped on this morning very quickly before heading off to work, and this is what jumped out to me. He did predictably well in gentrifying young Hipster areas like Logan Square and Wicker Park, but he also did very well in the lakefront wards like Lakeview, Uptown, Edgewater, and Rogers Park. He also did very well in Lincoln Square - a quirky, family-oriented neighborhood.

Kennedy primarily picked up Irish neighborhoods. Pritzker unified black and Hispanic neighborhoods on the south and west sides, with large margins in black neighborhoods. That's where Kennedy was hoping to chip away, but it obviously did not work out.

Marijuana Legalization (Chicago)


Wow did pot also do well on the north side! No surprise there - white liberals tend to be sympathetic toward it. It barely lost anywhere - a few precincts on the far northside that are home to the city's Orthodox Jewish community. Generally speaking, it did best where Biss did best. It did worst in Hispanic areas.

Dem AG (Chicago)


Man, did black neighborhoods turn out for Kwame. Very stark racial lines here. Ruiz won a number of Hispanic precincts on the SW side despite doing poorly statewide but he wasn't so lucky in Chicago's NW side Hispanic neighborhoods. Quinn did well in Irish and WWC neighborhoods on the far SW and NW sides. The north side was more of a mix, with Kwame still doing best. Sharon Fairly, the third place finisher, won a number of precincts on the north side in Lincoln Park, Gold Coast, Lakeview, etc. I am going to do a countywide map and we will see similar trends - she did well in rich white areas. Then we'll need to discuss why - because I have no idea, and I voted for her.

Assessors race up next from me!

[Green Line]

Wow, beautiful!

I will only speak on the IL-03 race.  Mt. Greenwood, Midway, Burbank, Summit and Oak Lawn really saved Lipinski.  He lost pretty much everything else in the district.  Bridgeview also went strongly Lipinski, to my surprise.  It looks like he cleaned up in the heavily Arab precincts in Bridgeview and to a lesser extent Palos Hills... never would have guessed that.  Newman targeted them hard, I wonder if they just didn't show up to vote.

Lipinski got blown out in his hometown of Western Springs (upper left corner).  Newman performed great with Orland, Homer, Lockport, Lemont Democrats despite it being the most conservative part of the district.

Newman swept Beverly too.  They always look down on their Mt. Greenwood neighbors!

[Mr. Illini]

Non-Illinoisans may not care as much about this race, but for Chicagoans it was perhaps the most heated and passionate race of the primary. I had to map it first.

Cook County Assessor - Dem

Several months ago, the Tribune and ProPublica broke a massive story about Joe Berrios, sitting assessor, and his favorable assessments for clients of property tax attorneys that were making huge donations to his campaigns. With wide frustration in the county over the property tax system already present, this turned the Democratic primary for assessor in 2018 into a battle between Berrios, sitting assessor and chair of the Chicago machine's primary operating body, the Cook Co. Democratic Party, against a finance professional, U of C grad, and progressive insurgent Fritz Kaegi. For the first time in a while, it felt like a true us-against-the-machine race - and we won.

Below, a map of the county by township, with the city as one township:



It is rare that you can produce a map that features machine-sympathetic suburbs going for the machine candidate while the city defects to the challenger, but here we are. Chicago went for Kaegi over all in the 40's, and he dominated countywide. At the end of the night, he beat out Berrios by about 10%, and consider that there was a third candidate that got about 20% of the vote.

The townships in the south that went for Berrios are majority black townships. These were not overwhelming victories and were likely the result of the machine doing its work. In the west, the townships that went to Berrios are majority Hispanic, and they were big victories - he was over 60 in Cicero. Berrios is Hispanic himself and has a lot of weight in that community. The outlier in the NW is strange - that is Leyden township. Leyden contains towns like Rosemont, and the only reason I can think of it going for Berrios is that it is known for having some former city dwellers and had a strong mob presence - so maybe the machine did its job there.

Kaegi's best townships were wealthier progressive suburbs like Evanston, Oak Park, and River Forest. He also did very well along the wealthy north shore in New Trier township. Over all, he dominated the northern suburbs, which are very white and tend to defect from the machine. It was actually kind of close in Schaumburg. It is kind of surprising that Kaegi did so well in Lemont - an area known for having some machine strength.

Now, to the city detail. This is by ward, but I should note that I am using an old ward map - a few changes were made a couple years back, but they weren't material and I cannot find a conducive template to replace this with.



The big swath of green on the county map above that treats the city as one township gets a lot more complicated when you break out the detail.

Berrios won large swaths of territory on the south and west sides. These are black and Latino/a neighborhoods that are favorable to machine backed candidates. Although he won those areas, he was still laughably weak there. Most black wards that he won he got in the 40s in. He did slightly better in Latino/a neighborhoods, where he has a lot of personal influence, but still only in the 50s and occasionally the 60s.

Kaegi was very strong on the white north side. His best wards were 2 and 43. Ward 2 is on the Near North Side and also includes portions of West Town and the Loop. This is a very wealthy area. 43 is Lincoln Park - also wealthy and white. Those areas tend to have a lot of Kaegi's fellow financial professionals - and they don't like the machine very much, either. He also did very well in young, hip, progressive areas on the NW side like Logan Square and Wicker Park as well as the lake front wards including Lakeview, Uptown, Edgewater, and Rogers Park. And, of course, Lincoln Square. Interestingly, Kaegi also won in WWC, police/fire heavy neighborhoods like Mt. Greenwood, Norwood Park, Edison Park, etc. Those neighborhoods are generally machine heavy. Also, note that he picked up Hyde Park's ward - he is a U of C grad, after all - as well as some near south side black wards. Those black wards on the nearer south side are somewhat gentrifying, both in terms of becoming a haven for wealthier African Americans as well as seeing some wealthier folks of other races moving in.

The ward in black was a tie.

Put it all together, and you get a map in which the ward lines generally blurred (sorry ) but you get the trends.



Worth noting that Raila is challenging the result after notes informing voters that she had been legally removed from the ballot despite her name appearing were distributed. She had been, but the ruling was reversed, and the notes were distributed anyway. She wants a special election.

Also, unfortunately, the areas that Berrios did best in were some of the areas most negatively impacted by his actions and policies. But, the machine is going to do what it is going to do.

[Oryxslayer]

Nice! Do you have the total D primary vote vs R primary vote by Congressional district?

I know it's not that useful, but it could portend significant signals of Democratic engagement if Democratic turnout was higher in traditionally Republican places like IL-6 and IL-14. I know Democrats crushed Republican turnout in IL-12.

You have to go county by county for the uncontested primaries, since NYT and other sites said "Fcuk it, their already the nominee." That said I am almost done with it (Il-15 why you so big), and I will reveal D's won 6 and R's 14.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't Oak Lawn heavily ethnically Polish? Wouldn't be shocked if that was why it saved Lipinski.

[Mr. Illini]

More from Miles/DD:



Finally, some Kennedy green! It's still incredible how well Biss did on the north side. You can see that he also did well along Chicago's wealthy north shore. That part isn't so surprising - he represents the area. Evanston was his best area, which is a great fit for him - the area is very progressive and he also represents it. He also did well in Wilmette, which he also represents. Notice that Kennedy won Winnetka and Kenilworth, which are even wealthier and also fall in Biss' district.

The rest of the northern suburbs were pretty scattered. One trend is noticeable - Kennedy did well in wealthy areas (other than the north shore) - like Barrington and Palatine. Pritzker did better in more middle class suburbs like Schaumburg.

Pritzker did very well in the burbs due south of the city, which have large black populations. Kennedy did well in suburbs that tend to be more WWC like Orland and Lemont.

Altogether, a beautiful map, even though I didn't particularly care for the result.

[Mr. Illini]

Now for my next map: Cook County President

Many hypothesized that Toni Preckwinkle was vulnerable as the Cook Co Board President incumbent after residents were unhappy that she raised the sales tax following her promise not to do so as well as attempted implementation of a soda tax, which ultimately failed.

Bob Fioretti, an opportunist who has run for pretty much everything, decided to challenge her on a platform of shrinking Cook County government. He ended up losing fairly handily with Preckwinkle capturing 61% of the vote.

Below is the county map on the township level.



Fioretti did well among working class whites. He won a number of townships in the southwest, such as Orland and Lemont. He also, for some reason, did well in the Latino/a townships of Cicero and Berwyn. I would love to hear some perspectives on this as it's kind of strange - he pushed over 60% in Cicero. Preckwinkle was similarly weak in Latino/a areas previously, so my hypothesis may be that it is because she is viewed as a criminal justice reformer, an issue of tension between the black and Latino/a communities.

Preckwinkle did her best in white progressive areas. This is consistent with her insurgency in 2010 against Stroger, though I had expected that was going to fade as she is increasingly viewed as part of the establishment. It didn't - her best township was Evanston, where she was over 80%. She also did very well in other white progressive areas like Oak Park, New Trier, and River Forest. She did well but not as well in more middle class white northern suburbs as well as majority black suburbs down south.

It's worth noting that on the whole, Preckwinkle was stronger in wealthier white areas than she was in black areas. She has always been a favorite of progressives and anti-machiners, but her numbers were very depressed in black areas.

A map of the city:



A trend that did not carry into the city...Preckwinkle did not lose Latino/a areas like she did in the suburbs, with the exception of the east side ward way down south. She was a bit weaker in them. I would explain this as the machine doing its work - even though she is a favorite of progressives, she is still the sitting President and an ally of Cook Co Dem Chair Joe Berrios.

Fioretti won in WWC, police/fire heavy areas on the far NW and SW sides. Funnily, he did his best in Madigan's territory on the SW side. This likely has nothing to do with Madigan and most to do with Preckwinkle's general weakness in WWC areas.

Preckwinkle did her best on the north side - keeping with the progressive darling trend. She was in the 70's up and down the lakefront on the north side. She also did well in black wards along the lake due south, which tend to be wealthier and also house U of C.

Between her performance and Kaegi's for assessor, who said the Lakefront Liberal is dead?

And the combination:

[jimrtex]

More from Miles/DD:



Finally, some Kennedy green! It's still incredible how well Biss did on the north side. You can see that he also did well along Chicago's wealthy north shore. That part isn't so surprising - he represents the area. Evanston was his best area, which is a great fit for him - the area is very progressive and he also represents it. He also did well in Wilmette, which he also represents. Notice that Kennedy won Winnetka and Kenilworth, which are even wealthier and also fall in Biss' district.

The rest of the northern suburbs were pretty scattered. One trend is noticeable - Kennedy did well in wealthy areas (other than the north shore) - like Barrington and Palatine. Pritzker did better in more middle class suburbs like Schaumburg.

Pritzker did very well in the burbs due south of the city, which have large black populations. Kennedy did well in suburbs that tend to be more WWC like Orland and Lemont.

Altogether, a beautiful map, even though I didn't particularly care for the result.

It is interesting how Oak Park stands out as a square island. I thought it would be more a case of trend, centered on the area. Do most people associated with University of Chicago live within a half mile of the campus?