Mr. Illini maps Illinois: A Megathread

[Green Line]

Here we go - the straw ban...



This question was seen as an attempt by City Council to keep Pat Quinn's question on term limits off the ballot.

Overall, the city favored it. African American wards opposed banning straws while Latino and white areas favored it. Exceptions would be wards 3, 4, and 5 on the near south side, which are mostly black, but are more built up and wealthier (though I don't have the #s) than the wards on the deep south side.

Any theories on the racial disparity - and specifically, why Latino communities favor it but the black community did not?

I have one theory.  There is a big plastic straw manufactuer located on the South Side of Chicago:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-plastic-straw-pushback-chicago-plant-20180531-story.html

[Mr. Illini]

Here's a map of Cook County - Bruce Rauner's performance between 2014 and 2018.



He didn't improve anywhere.

His biggest losses were up along the Lake County border, including his home township of New Trier. The four darkest red townships are all wealthy. Those communities has some of the hardest swings away from Quinn in 2014, so this could be seen as a correction.

His smallest losses were, frankly, in areas where Dems are strongest. In other words, these areas are full of hardcore Dems that voted for Quinn in 2014. They include the city, black suburbs south of the city, and progressive whiter suburbs like Evanston and Oak Park.

Hoping to perhaps add the collars to this.

[RINO Tom]

Good maps, as always.

[Mr. Illini]

Here is the turnout by ward in Chicago for the 2018 General Election.

Generally speaking, the whiter the ward, the larger the turnout. This is an exception on the south side along the lake, which are wealthier and more politically active than the inland plurality black wards. Overall, I'd say Latino wards had the lowest turnout. The two wards that were over 80% turnout primarily comprise the neighborhoods of Lakeview and Lincoln Square. The rest of the white north side and gentrifying northwest side wards were in the 70s.

[Mr. Illini]

I have decided to use this as a megathread for Illinois maps that I produce.

First for 2020 is the Cook County State's Attorney race in Chicago city limits.

Kim Foxx, the incumbent, has made national news for her handling of the Jussie Smollett case. She is also a criminal justice reformer and has drawn the ire of the FOP as a result. They failed to put up much of a fight, though, endorsing Fioretti, who fell flat. Bill Conway, son of a billionaire and self-funder, took most of the anti-Foxx vote.



Foxx dominated black wards in the city. This was more true on the south side than on the west. Conway did best in white working class neighborhoods on the SW and NW sides. He also must have done well enough among Latinx voters to push some of those wards on the inner SW side. On the north side, Conway narrowly won the very wealthy near north side wards, including Gold Coast, River North, Streeterville, and Lincoln Park. Foxx won the rest of the north side, including Lakeview, Lincoln Square, Uptown, Edgewater, Logan Square, Wicker Park, and larger margins in Rogers Park.

Next, the county at large.



I must admit I am surprised at how well Conway did in suburban Cook. Foxx did quite well in a number of these townships in 2016 when she challenged Anita Alvarez. I would have expected her to maintain her strength in places like New Trier, Northfield, and Niles. Generally, Conway won everywhere outside of the city except the heavily black south suburbs as well as very liberal Evanston and Oak Park. Notably, third candidate Donna More's numbers were pretty high along the North Shore - she almost won New Trier. I wonder if those are voters turned off by the Smollett case but not wanting to go with Conway (who was seen as the FOP candidate, even though they didn't endorse him). More also got the Trib's endorsement, and I'd guess Trib readership is fairly high up there.

More to come...

[Mr. Illini]

Next, the Presidential election in Chicago...



Given the state of the race, this was a very impressive result for Bernie Sanders. He maintained rock solid support among Latinx voters on the NW and SW sides, taking all of those wards and pulling in a couple of bordering wards with more diverse populations. Biden did very well among black voters as expected, taking majority black wards on the south and west sides.

WWC voters were kind of a mixed bag. Biden won the MtG/Beverly ward and the wards on the far NW side, but Bernie held the wards by Midway on the SW side. Those wards have larger Latinx populations, which could explain it.

Among wealthier white voters on the north side, Biden did well in Near North and Lincoln Park. The wards housing Lakeview, Lincoln Square, Uptown, and Edgewater were all very close. I am surprised at Bernie's strength here. The populations are younger, but given that Hillary did well here in 2016 and that this race has been essentially considered over, Bernie had a very good showing.

County wide, next...



Obviously, the suburbs were a bit of a bloodbath. Bernie only did well in the three SW suburban townships that have large Latinx populations. Biden did very well in the south suburbs, which have very large black populations. He also did very well in the northern suburbs, which are pretty wealthy.

Biden also did very well in Evanston, which is kind of surprising to me. Evanston typically votes a lot like its north side neighbors in Rogers Park, Edgewater, etc, which were all either very close or Bernie-leaning. I'm not exactly sure what would explain this discrepancy.

And the combined version...

[Gracile]

Evanston isn't that surprising. Outside of the university/downtown area, much of the township is relatively upscale and suburban, which fits into Biden's support base. Hillary Clinton won Evanston Township in 2016, which shows that much of the liberal voters there gravitated toward an establishment candidate. Rogers Park and parts of Edgewater are also student meccas, but the general population skews much more working-class and decidedly progressive. Unlike WWC voters in other parts of Chicago, the community here tends to have much higher rates of college education (and this is key because people who are both working-class AND college-educated are pretty much Sanders' bread and butter).

Anyway, these maps are very informative and I'm glad you took the time to make a detailed breakdown of our city's/region's election results.

[Oryxslayer]

I would also add that there is a sizable Asian population on the in the far north side, and Sanders was the preferred candidate of Urban Asians in California, the place with enough of these voters to measure with some degree of accuracy,

[Virginiá]

Has this been discussed yet?

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1253169545839366145

I guess the gist is, due a quirk in how maps are determined if there is no map by July 31st, Republicans could end up getting their own gerrymander passed if the backup commission deadlocks, which is a near certainty given the composition. They'd essentially pick the map by picking something out of a hat.

[Mr.Phips]

Has this been discussed yet?

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1253169545839366145

I guess the gist is, due a quirk in how maps are determined if there is no map by July 31st, Republicans could end up getting their own gerrymander passed if the backup commission deadlocks, which is a near certainty given the composition. They'd essentially pick the map by picking something out of a hat.

The could draw the maps prior to the release of the data like Republicans did in Wisconsin in 2011.

[lfromnj]

The good news for Democrats even with a GOP gerrymander,is they probably now have have hard floor of 10 seats average even with a GOP gerrymander unless they literally start bringing in southern illinois to Chicago Burbs. When Hillary clinton wins all but 1 town in dupage by double digits you can't touch that county of a million and lake is pretty hard to touch too.