Will Elliott County flip back to the democrats?

[Bidenworth2020]

?? I'd say yes, back to about 56-43 margins.

[Dr. MB]

Depends who the nominee(s) are.

[Mr. Smith]

Only if the nation gets depolarized enough for an LBJ-esque landslide.

Obama won it by less than Kerry in '08 despite the 9 point slide nationally, won it by a plurality in 2012, and arguably only because Romney was an even worse fit.  Honestly, Hillary wasn't going to win that county even if she had kept her expected margin.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think a more populist candidate (Sanders, Merkley, Brown) would easily flip the county back. Someone like Harris or Cuomo would do even worse than Hillary did though.

[TML]

Remember, the vast majority of this county's voters are registered Democrats, and they had been voting Democratic out of tradition. In 2016 they saw Trump as someone who appealed to them, but Democratic candidates continued to win downballot.

I think this county will probably flip back if the Democrats run a candidate who pitches economic populism a la Bernie Sanders.

[libertpaulian]

Remember, the vast majority of this county's voters are registered Democrats, and they had been voting Democratic out of tradition. In 2016 they saw Trump as someone who appealed to them, but Democratic candidates continued to win downballot.

I think this county will probably flip back if the Democrats run a candidate who pitches economic populism a la Bernie Sanders.

How many Yellow Dog Democrats are left these days, honestly?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No

And Darien Township, Connecticut will not flip back to the Republicans either.

[Rookie Yinzer]

No. The habitual Democratic voters will have had another four years to die off.

[Adam Griffin]

There's practically no (may not actually be any) example of a county with these cultural and political dynamics ever reversing its trend in absolutes outside of a broader/national realignment. The fact that Elliott has swung 84 points in 12 years should tell you all you need to know.

Maybe if the county had went from its 2012 performance to a mirror-reverse result in 2016, you could argue that a flip was possible - but not only is that not going to happen, but it's likely the county doesn't even manage to swing Democratic in 2020.

While a huge chunk of the New Deal-influenced coalition has certainly passed on over the past 15 years, the roots obviously run deep here (i.e. it wasn't just a bunch of 90 year-olds keeping the county Democratic). In knowing that, you have to accept that there was still a significant chunk of these die-hard yellow-dogs who voted for Clinton in 2016 who will not be around in three years' time.

[mvd10]

No

And Darien Township, Connecticut will not flip back to the Republicans either.

Darien went 53-41 for Clinton and 65-34 for Romney, Elliott went 70-26 for Trump and 50-46 for Obama. I'd say that there is a big difference in likelihood to flip back.

[nclib]

Elliott was literally the last rural white county in the peripheral South to vote Democratic for President, and had literally the highest swing to Trump, so it is highly unlikely that it will flip back to the Dems. A better question would be "would Elliott keep voting Democratic downballot". A lot of places start their transition for President, and then work their way downballot. For example, ten years ago Arkansas voted Democratic in everything except President.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

No. Trump may have enhanced the trend there, but it was inevitably going to become safe R anyway.

[I’m not Stu]

Could Andy Beshear win Elliott County if he runs for governor or Senate?

[morgieb]

Presidentially it would be very hard for it to flip back barring some kind of realignment.

At the state level it can easily stay Democratic, though. Grey and Conway won it (IIRC).

[I’m not Stu]

Andy Beshear and Jack Conway won Elliott county. It might still vote Democratic at the state level.