Predict the next five Democratic candidates to enter the race

[Mr. Morden]

Delaney’s already running, as are some nobody businessmen who’ll never get into the debates.  But in terms of candidates who might conceivably at least get included in polling, predict who the next five candidates to officially enter the race will be, in order.

I’ll go with:

Martin O’Malley
Julian Castro
Terry McAuliffe
Tom Steyer
Kamala Harris

Those are probably all going to be wrong, but this is just for fun.

Here’s my reasoning: O’Malley, Castro, and McAuliffe are all out of office now, and have nothing else to do except campaign for candidates in the midterms.  Once the midterms are over, there’s nothing left to do except run for president for real.  All three seem reasonably likely to run, though McAuliffe probably not quite as likely as the other two.

Steyer does have a day job, but it’s just being a billionaire.  No reason for him to wait that long into 2019 to launch his candidacy.  It looks like there’s a reasonable chance that he’ll run, though hardly a sure thing.  More likely to run than any of the other business people or celebrities being floated.  And if he does run, then yes, my hunch is that he’d start his campaign before any of the sitting governors or members of Congress.

Then you get to the sitting members of Congress.  Many of them are up for reelection this year, and so they have to pretend that they haven’t already decided to run for president.  They’re probably not going to start presidential campaigns as early as January or February of next year, because it looks bad to do that just a week or two after being sworn in for a new term.  But Harris isn’t up for reelection this year, so she *could* launch her campaign early, and she seems very likely to run.  Booker might too, and he’s not up for reelection this year either, but I’m thinking it’s possible that Booker pretends to deliberate for a while on whether to run for Senate or President in 2020.  Also, there’s an off chance of Booker trying to sneak in a wedding with Cleo before he starts his presidential campaign.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Julian Castro- same reasons you specified.
Martin O'Malley- I think he'd not want two Marylanders announcing in a row? Idk.
Kirsten Gillibrand- just a personal feeling that she'll be an early announcer.
Eric Garcetti- he seems very pushy about a Presidential bid.
Cory Booker- same as Gillibrand. Dunno why, but I feel like Kamala will announce fairly late.

[Kleine Scheiße]

O’Malley is taking his “day job” very seriously at the moment, and has been for a while. I don’t see him announcing before January at the earliest.

[Mr. Morden]

O’Malley is taking his “day job” very seriously at the moment, and has been for a while. I don’t see him announcing before January at the earliest.

Well, there's a good chance that none of them announce before January.  While Webb started his exploratory committee in November 2014, none of the 2016 candidates actually announced their candidacy until 2015.

[NevadanAtHeart]

Seems like a fun exercise. I'll go with:

Julian Castro - He's been flirting pretty heavily with the idea of running in 2020. He's also got to realize that, with the other candidates who are likely to run, he's going to have a bit of a hard time gaining traction. He might be the first domino to fall.

Terry McAuliffe - I don't expect him to announce until February 2019 or so (non-coincidentally, I think this is when he said Dems should start thinking about 2020?), but I also don't expect very many people to announce until then.

Eric Garcetti - Same reasons as Castro, but he's got a full-time job at the moment, so he can't exactly jump in feet first.

Jeff Merkley - I feel as if most of the sitting Senators (Booker, Gillibrand, etc.) wouldn't want to seem too much like opportunists given their current issue. Merkley, on the other hand, might want to get an early lead and energize his progressive base to ensure he has as much momentum going forward as possible. If Bernie, Warren, etc. run, he'll probably withdraw.

Andrew Cuomo - He's the most high-profile person I see possibly declaring early. He's unabashedly ambitious and would likely be the trigger point for many other people to jump into the race.

[Mr. Morden]

Andrew Cuomo - He's the most high-profile person I see possibly declaring early. He's unabashedly ambitious and would likely be the trigger point for many other people to jump into the race.

The thing with governors though is that it's easier to get away with being a part time Senator than a part time governor (especially for a big state like New York).  My guess would be that Cuomo waits for a bit into 2019, not announcing until we've had a few months of the 2019 legislative calendar in New York, because once he's on the campaign trail, it'll be harder to get things done.  Recall, for example, that Christie and Jindal didn't announce until June 2015, while Kasich and Walker announced in July 2015.  Most of the Senators announced a few months earlier than that.

[NewYorkExpress]

Martin O'Malley: He's got no real day job, and I doubt he's going to wait much longer. I bet he announces before the midterms are over with.

Jason Kander: Kander's just not high-profile enough to be able to wait long to announce...if he runs, which, with his visits to Iowa and New Hampshire, it looks like he will. I think he announces shortly before the midterms as well.

Bernie Sanders: Sanders, if he runs will want to announce early to box other progressives, like Warren out. I believe if he runs, he will announce shortly after New Year's 2019.

Tulsi Gabbard: If Gabbard announces, she will want to announce early, to maximize attention. She'll probably only run if Sanders doesn't, but I see it as a 50-50 proposition given Sanders's age. Both likely will announce their plans around New Year's 2019.

Bill De Blasio: Yes, I actually think De Blasio is going to run. He'd have a hard time gaining traction, and he'd have a hard time getting traction, but I see him having a better campaign than Garcetti would have. He'd have to announce early though.

[TrumpBritt24]

June 2018 - Julian Castro. I think his odds are a lot higher than what people are giving him, and I think he'll gain some traction as a pseudo-progressive corporate Democrat with some appeal to minorities. I don't know if he can win the nomination or even the Presidency, but I think he goes farther than people think. He has already began to promote his PAC on Facebook for "midterm" candidates, but let's be honest.

July 2018 - Eric Garcetti. I personally see his campaign going nowhere, as historically mayors have little to no success in Presidential elections. After Trump, however, anything can and will happen; and with Garcetti's wealth and name - why not.

August 2018 - Tom Steyer. I think his campaign will be hilariously pathetic, but he's a billionaire, and we all thought Trump's campaign was pathetic once. And we know how that ended.....

Midterm Night - Jason Kander. I'm a huge fan, but I'll try to put my bias aside. Not much political experience, but Midterm Night will be a night (especially under Trump) where everyone is watching politics. With some social media promotion and maybe a media appearance, he can get his name out quickly, and start a campaign with his fairly centrist agenda; hoping that Democrats will subscribe as compared to socialist progressives or corrupt corporatists.

Christmastime/New Year's Day - Kirsten Gillibrand. The primaries are coming and with Congress home for the holidays, why not start your campaign during the most sentimental time of the season. A woman fighting against Trump's sexism and attempting to break the Presidential glass ceiling? Why not start it early. She's not the most progressive candidate by any means, so she'll have some voters to try and win over - but I have big hopes for her.

[NewYorkExpress]

June 2018 - Julian Castro. I think his odds are a lot higher than what people are giving him, and I think he'll gain some traction as a pseudo-progressive corporate Democrat with some appeal to minorities. I don't know if he can win the nomination or even the Presidency, but I think he goes farther than people think. He has already began to promote his PAC on Facebook for "midterm" candidates, but let's be honest.

July 2018 - Eric Garcetti. I personally see his campaign going nowhere, as historically mayors have little to no success in Presidential elections. After Trump, however, anything can and will happen; and with Garcetti's wealth and name - why not.

August 2018 - Tom Steyer. I think his campaign will be hilariously pathetic, but he's a billionaire, and we all thought Trump's campaign was pathetic once. And we know how that ended.....

Midterm Night - Jason Kander. I'm a huge fan, but I'll try to put my bias aside. Not much political experience, but Midterm Night will be a night (especially under Trump) where everyone is watching politics. With some social media promotion and maybe a media appearance, he can get his name out quickly, and start a campaign with his fairly centrist agenda; hoping that Democrats will subscribe as compared to socialist progressives or corrupt corporatists.

Christmastime/New Year's Day - Kirsten Gillibrand. The primaries are coming and with Congress home for the holidays, why not start your campaign during the most sentimental time of the season. A woman fighting against Trump's sexism and attempting to break the Presidential glass ceiling? Why not start it early. She's not the most progressive candidate by any means, so she'll have some voters to try and win over - but I have big hopes for her.

I wouldn't be shocked if De Blasio also enters early.

[NevadanAtHeart]

Andrew Cuomo - He's the most high-profile person I see possibly declaring early. He's unabashedly ambitious and would likely be the trigger point for many other people to jump into the race.

The thing with governors though is that it's easier to get away with being a part time Senator than a part time governor (especially for a big state like New York).  My guess would be that Cuomo waits for a bit into 2019, not announcing until we've had a few months of the 2019 legislative calendar in New York, because once he's on the campaign trail, it'll be harder to get things done.  Recall, for example, that Christie and Jindal didn't announce until June 2015, while Kasich and Walker announced in July 2015.  Most of the Senators announced a few months earlier than that.

I definitely agree - that's why I placed Cuomo far after Terry, who I expect to declare in early '19, and after Merkley. I do expect Cuomo to beat some of the Senators to the punch, especially those with precarious optics (like the aforementioned Booker and Gillibrand)

[TrumpBritt24]

June 2018 - Julian Castro. I think his odds are a lot higher than what people are giving him, and I think he'll gain some traction as a pseudo-progressive corporate Democrat with some appeal to minorities. I don't know if he can win the nomination or even the Presidency, but I think he goes farther than people think. He has already began to promote his PAC on Facebook for "midterm" candidates, but let's be honest.

July 2018 - ((((((Eric Garcetti)))))). I personally see his campaign going nowhere, as historically mayors have little to no success in Presidential elections. After Trump, however, anything can and will happen; and with Garcetti's wealth and name - why not.

August 2018 - ((((((Tom Steyer)))))). I think his campaign will be hilariously pathetic, but he's a billionaire, and we all thought Trump's campaign was pathetic once. And we know how that ended.....

Midterm Night - ((((((Jason Kander)))))). I'm a huge fan, but I'll try to put my bias aside. Not much political experience, but Midterm Night will be a night (especially under Trump) where everyone is watching politics. With some social media promotion and maybe a media appearance, he can get his name out quickly, and start a campaign with his fairly centrist agenda; hoping that Democrats will subscribe as compared to socialist progressives or corrupt corporatists.

Christmastime/New Year's Day - Kirsten Gillibrand. The primaries are coming and with Congress home for the holidays, why not start your campaign during the most sentimental time of the season. A woman fighting against Trump's sexism and attempting to break the Presidential glass ceiling? Why not start it early. She's not the most progressive candidate by any means, so she'll have some voters to try and win over - but I have big hopes for her.

I wouldn't be shocked if De Blasio also enters early.

This horse from 2008 won't die already, won't it?

I want him or Bloomberg to run (and both lose) just so that this old meme can die and be replaced by the new meme of supporting random candidates from the mountain west/midwest like Kander and Bullock.

[BlueSwan]

Impossible to predict, but I believe that Gillibrand, Harris and Booker will all announce fairly early, although a few nonames will likely announce before them. The field is likely to be huge and you want to announce early to possibly scare away some of your likely competitors and absorb the eary media attention. You wouldn't want to be one of the above three annoucing 6 months after the first two as candidate number 25. Especially given that there is no clear frontrunner. Also none of those are high profile enough to launch a last minute "the people are demanding it"-campaign - only Biden, Sanders and possibly Warren have the profile to pull that off. Anyway, it is gonna be a blast. Probably the craziest democratic nomination race ever.

[sverkol]

Kander will not run for president because he will run for governor

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No one of any significance announces before the midterms, although we might have an entry or two before the end of the year. n.