How do Republicans win Virginia at the presidential level now?

[Suburbia]

The last Republicans to win Virginia was Bush-Cheney 2004, winning 53% of the vote.


Democrat Barack Obama essentially changed Virginia's politics, with the rise of NOVA's Democratic voting base of suburban Virginians. Obama won VA in 2008 and 2012, and Hillary Clinton won VA in 2016 with affluent suburbanites plus African-Americans, Latinos, and some millennials.

How do Republicans win Virginia at the presidential level?

[Not a Partisan Hack ( ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡°)]

Tell the creative class and people in high paying occupations to move somewhere else other than the NOVA area.

[Tekken_Guy]

They don't.

[Suburbia]

They don't.

They could perform well with NOVA suburbanites over taxes and national security.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If they nominated Kasich in 2016 they win VA


Other than that they need to win the Popular vote by 4-5 points

[Dr. MB]

In a 2016 Kasich vs. Sanders election VA would've likely gone to Kasich.

Nominate a Kasich-style Republican and go against a Sanders-style Democrat.

[Suburbia]

In a 2016 Kasich vs. Sanders election VA would've likely gone to Kasich.

Nominate a Kasich-style Republican and go against a Sanders-style Democrat.

A Josh Hawley or a Ben Sasse can win VA....

[Dr. MB]

In a 2016 Kasich vs. Sanders election VA would've likely gone to Kasich.

Nominate a Kasich-style Republican and go against a Sanders-style Democrat.

A Josh Hawley or a Ben Sasse can win VA....

True, but there has to be the right D opponent.

[mvd10]

I don't even think a Sanders-style candidate would do that bad in NoVa. Aren't most of these wealthy people in NoVa tech or government workers? They're surprisingly friendly to a left-wing agenda. Even the tech sector's priorities line up more with Democratic policies than Republican policies (and let's not forget social conservatism which is extremely toxic there). Sanders might collaps in more traditional suburbs or wealthy places where people work in finance/higher management but he'd do just fine in tech suburbs and NoVa.

I think Republicans' best bet is to nominate a more moderate conservative like Kasich who can appeal to NoVa and get 40% or so there while running up the margins in the rest of the state (basically Romney 2012 with a swing of 2% to the Republicans). Maybe an election focused on national security helps. But I don't think Virginia will vote Republican again in the near future.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't even think a Sanders-style candidate would do that bad in NoVa. Aren't most of these wealthy people in NoVa tech or government workers? They're surprisingly friendly to a left-wing agenda. Even the tech sector's priorities line up more with Democratic policies than Republican policies (and let's not forget social conservatism which is extremely toxic there). Sanders might collaps in more traditional suburbs or wealthy places where people work in finance/higher management but he'd do just fine in tech suburbs and NoVa.

I think Republicans' best bet is to nominate a more moderate conservative like Kasich who can appeal to NoVa and get 40% or so there while running up the margins in the rest of the state (basically Romney 2012 with a swing of 2% to the Republicans). Maybe an election focused on national security helps. But I don't think Virginia will vote Republican again in the near future.

Sanders opposes free trade , and supports drastically raising taxes.



Those places are more Establishment Liberals then just being left wing.

[mvd10]

I don't even think a Sanders-style candidate would do that bad in NoVa. Aren't most of these wealthy people in NoVa tech or government workers? They're surprisingly friendly to a left-wing agenda. Even the tech sector's priorities line up more with Democratic policies than Republican policies (and let's not forget social conservatism which is extremely toxic there). Sanders might collaps in more traditional suburbs or wealthy places where people work in finance/higher management but he'd do just fine in tech suburbs and NoVa.

I think Republicans' best bet is to nominate a more moderate conservative like Kasich who can appeal to NoVa and get 40% or so there while running up the margins in the rest of the state (basically Romney 2012 with a swing of 2% to the Republicans). Maybe an election focused on national security helps. But I don't think Virginia will vote Republican again in the near future.

Sanders opposes free trade , and supports drastically raising taxes.



Those places are more Establishment Liberals then just being left wing.

The executives are, Sanders would definitely lose Atherton and other elite villages (they mostly went for Romney already). But you average Google worker who earns $125k but only keeps $45k after taxes, rent and college debt repayments (with the latter two being the main factors) is surprisingly left-wing. I believe Sanders actually outraised Hillary in Silicon Valley. Maybe a more socially liberal Republican could make some inroads if he/she faces a more populist Democrat (especially in fundraising) but I don't believe those places will go Republican automatically if they just praise Uber long enough (which some Republicans seem to think). Perhaps tech workers will grow more conservative once they buy their own home and/or fully repay their college debts.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The only way this happens is if the Democratic nominee uniquely lacks appeal in NOVA. a far-left Sanders style Dem would possibly lose the state to a moderate Republican.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't even think a Sanders-style candidate would do that bad in NoVa. Aren't most of these wealthy people in NoVa tech or government workers? They're surprisingly friendly to a left-wing agenda. Even the tech sector's priorities line up more with Democratic policies than Republican policies (and let's not forget social conservatism which is extremely toxic there). Sanders might collaps in more traditional suburbs or wealthy places where people work in finance/higher management but he'd do just fine in tech suburbs and NoVa.

I think Republicans' best bet is to nominate a more moderate conservative like Kasich who can appeal to NoVa and get 40% or so there while running up the margins in the rest of the state (basically Romney 2012 with a swing of 2% to the Republicans). Maybe an election focused on national security helps. But I don't think Virginia will vote Republican again in the near future.

Sanders opposes free trade , and supports drastically raising taxes.



Those places are more Establishment Liberals then just being left wing.

The executives are, Sanders would definitely lose Atherton and other elite villages (they mostly went for Romney already). But you average Google worker who earns $125k but only keeps $45k after taxes, rent and college debt repayments (with the latter two being the main factors) is surprisingly left-wing. I believe Sanders actually outraised Hillary in Silicon Valley. Maybe a more socially liberal Republican could make some inroads if he/she faces a more populist Democrat (especially in fundraising) but I don't believe those places will go Republican automatically if they just praise Uber long enough (which some Republicans seem to think). Perhaps tech workers will grow more conservative once they buy their own home and/or fully repay their college debts.

Virginia PVI was only +4 Dem this cycle and that was with

- an Establishment Democrat and an Vice Presidential Candiate from Virginia

- A republican candidate who is a terrible fit for the state



In my opinion, Kasich wins Virginia by 2-3 points(wins nationally by 6.5-7 points) .



Against Bernie i think Rubio wins VA as well , and if it was against Trump , Bloomberg runs third party and probably wins NOVA.

[here2view]

I equate Virginia to Colorado. Republicans used to win them but not anymore. They're not completely out of reach but it would take a 4-5 point popular vote win to win these two now.

[MT Treasurer]

VA is 100% gone for Republicans, even someone like Sanders or Warren would win there against Kasich.

Can we please stop pretending that VA-SEN 2018 and VA-PRES 2020 are anything other than Safe D? This is getting ridiculous.

[Not a Partisan Hack ( ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡°)]

I equate Virginia to Colorado. Republicans used to win them but not anymore. They're not completely out of reach but it would take a 4-5 point popular vote win to win these two now.

Within 2-3 election cycles, Arizona might as well be placed in that category with  modern day colorado and virginia

[twenty42]

Win the popular vote.  Hillary was an unusually good fit for VA.

[libertpaulian]

VA is 100% gone for Republicans, even someone like Sanders or Warren would win there against Kasich.

Can we please stop pretending that VA-SEN 2018 and VA-PRES 2020 are anything other than Safe D? This is getting ridiculous.

I do think VA has one competitive cycle left in it, but beyond that, I agree it's mostly gone for the GOP at the federal level.

VA-SEN 2018 is gone because the GOP has a pathetic bench.

[MT Treasurer]

I do think VA has one competitive cycle left in it, but beyond that, I agree it's mostly gone for the GOP at the federal level.

VA-SEN 2018 is gone because the GOP has a pathetic bench.

Even if Comstock had run against Kaine, she would have lost in a landslide due to the state’s strong D lean and Trump’s approval ratings. At the federal level it’s already beyond gone for Republicans, but maybe Gillespie could have won by like 1 had Clinton been president (although I doubt it). Today’s VA is basically where Maryland was in the '90s IMO.

[Beet]

Virginia is not a good state for the GOP at this point, although it's not an impregnable state for the Republicans. It's not so much that it's impossible for the GOP to win, but that they don't need the state so they won't try too hard for it. If they wanted to win it, they could focus on running moderates who could appeal to the suburbs in Richmond and Virginia Beach, and isolate NoVa.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Win the popular vote.  Hillary was an unusually good fit for VA.

No... Hillary was not an "unusually good fit" for any state. she over-performed in some areas because Trump was a terrible fit for them, not because she was a good fit. any generic Democrat would have done the same as her or better vs. Trump in these areas, save for a firebrand progressive like Warren or Sanders.