When did you feel Hillary Clinton was in Danger of losing

[Arkansas Yankee]

In the last couple days of the campaign after the comey letter I saw a huge rise of overconfidence and compliance for clinton and a surge in excitement among my Trump supporting friends. I looked at the electoral map and could not see how a trump win was plausible but my gut told me it was going to happen.
My dad was so overconfident in a Clinton win he predicted a  50 state landslide on election day.

Your dad thought she would carry Arkansas, Tennessse, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Oklahoma, and Idaho?

[OSR stands with Israel]

To Trump : Really not until election night


To the Republican: Thought it was likely going to happen from day 1

[South Dakota Democrat]

Election night when MI, MN, VA, PA, NH, and WI were all too close to call on MSNBC (not too early).  Some of them had just closed (MI had been teased as being close all night/that the Clinton campaign was worried about it, even before the polls closed), but some of them were originally too early but then they changed them to too close all at once.  It was like, oh crap.

[junior chįmp]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-H9BOIYhgc

[Hammy]

Going back through my posts, it looks like 2006 was when.



Even though the map/opponent/year were wrong I got the election night EV total right.

[Karpatsky]

Going back through my posts, it looks like 2006 was when.



Even though the map/opponent/year were wrong I got the election night EV total right.

That's a really impressive coincidence.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

When the vote dump from the FL panhandle came in with several hundred thousand Trump votes. In a split second it went from "we got this, and I can go to bed early," to "Oh, crap."

[Use Your Illusion]

I had two moments.

1. When Clinton was hanging on for dear life by some meager figure of something like 10,000 votes with 85% precincts reporting. I knew she was toast because the rest of the conservative panhandle had not been called.

2. When they called Pennsylvania for Trump.

[morgankingsley]

It is interesting how few people were expecting it. I don't believe it, but I would have assumed that most people would have had at least the "maybe just maybe" feeling well before November 8. My friend was that way. He thought Hillary would win, but stated he felt like there was about a 25 percent chance Trump would win

[South Dakota Democrat]

It is interesting how few people were expecting it. I don't believe it, but I would have assumed that most people would have had at least the "maybe just maybe" feeling well before November 8. My friend was that way. He thought Hillary would win, but stated he felt like there was about a 25 percent chance Trump would win

Yeah, I definitely had a maybe just maybe feeling in the back of my mind, but I tried to ignore it.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

In being naive I denied there was any probability of Trump winning.

At 9pm that night I knew she was going to lose, not a chance to lose, not possible. She was straight up done for.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It is interesting how few people were expecting it. I don't believe it, but I would have assumed that most people would have had at least the "maybe just maybe" feeling well before November 8. My friend was that way. He thought Hillary would win, but stated he felt like there was about a 25 percent chance Trump would win

My feeling was that if Russia managed to hack into voting machines and change the votes, Trump would win, and otherwise Clinton was inevitable.

[IceSpear]

It is interesting how few people were expecting it. I don't believe it, but I would have assumed that most people would have had at least the "maybe just maybe" feeling well before November 8. My friend was that way. He thought Hillary would win, but stated he felt like there was about a 25 percent chance Trump would win

I knew there was a chance (iirc I gave him a 15-20% chance to win right before the election.) But it's quite another thing to see it actually happen.

[OBD]

At about 8-9:00 EST when Trump was winning the Midwest

[alancia]

Florida still had some votes to count in Broward, but then Trump pulled ahead and won and then I knew he would get the whole thing.

[J. J.]

A week out I had it as a tie.  I thought it would be close.

At about 11:36 PM on election night when Wisconsin was called for Trump by FOX.  Up to that point, every state was voting as I thought it would. I thought Clinton would carry it.  This is the exact moment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVBfaH-Qedw

At that point, my attention to NH and ME-2.  About an hour later, I began looking at PA. 

[Mister Mets]

I thought she had a good chance of losing in a general election with anyone other than Trump simply because of my understanding of historical trends (parties tend to lose support; it seemed unlikely she would beat Obama's reelection and that was rather narrow.)

Against Trump, her September 11 health episode was the first time I thought she might lose.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Honestly, I was very, very nervous the moment the Comey memo came out, especially given Trump had completely bounced back from Access Hollywood in the polls. That's when I knew a Trump victory was a distinct possibility, much greater than the absurd 2% chance NYT gave him.

But of course, on Atlas I was just a bed-wetting concern troll, lol.

I turned on the returns that evening hoping that this nightmare would be over quickly. That my concerns were unfounded, that the PredictIt markets were on point.

Then the Florida panhandle vote dump came in for Trump.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

When the vote dump from the FL panhandle came in with several hundred thousand Trump votes. In a split second it went from "we got this, and I can go to bed early," to "Oh, crap."

Basically this, around 1:30 am my time. I was getting increasingly concerned about how well Trump was holding up in Miami-Dade and Broward, then the flood of votes from the Panhandle came in and I started to panic. Then the Michigan exit poll came out showing the state tied and I knew Trump had won.

It is interesting how few people were expecting it. I don't believe it, but I would have assumed that most people would have had at least the "maybe just maybe" feeling well before November 8. My friend was that way. He thought Hillary would win, but stated he felt like there was about a 25 percent chance Trump would win

For my part it had a lot to do with how 2012 had turned out. After the first debate Obama had a small but consistent lead over Romney and I was annoyed with the media for portraying the race as closer than it actually was, along with tons of Republicans spinning unskewed polls, then the polling error was in Obama's favour. I sort of assumed the same thing would happen again.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the NH midnight town votes, which went to Trump. Most people here dismissed them.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the NH midnight town votes, which went to Trump. Most people here dismissed them.

NH was not in the freiwal

Did anyone mention Vigo County? Not scrolling through this entire thread, sorry.

[IceSpear]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the NH midnight town votes, which went to Trump. Most people here dismissed them.

NH was not in the freiwal

Did anyone mention Vigo County? Not scrolling through this entire thread, sorry.

Vigo County worried me a bit, but the fact that it was a Trump landslide when it was obvious Trump wasn't going to win in a landslide overall made me more willing to dismiss it as an outlier.

[CatoMinor]

Probably around 9:30 pm, central time. I hadn't paid any attention that day and my first look at results showed Trump with Ohio nearly locked up.

[Izzyeviel]

I noticed after the Conventions that Trump had more of a bounce than Hillary. My poll tracker showed states moving to Trump and they weren't being picked up by the media. I think we forget that Trump was level or slightly ahead in the polls when she appeared ill at the 9/11 events. I stopped tracking them following the pussygate scandal. Didn't think Americans were that stupid. You guys never let me down on that score! 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Going back through my posts, it looks like 2006 was when.



Even though the map/opponent/year were wrong I got the election night EV total right.

That's a really impressive coincidence.

Dick Morris might have been insane enough to make a map like that for the 2016 election.