Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This district includes all of Douglas County, which includes Omaha, and the suburban areas of western Sarpy County. Since Nebraska isn't likely to gain a fourth electoral vote the district's border will only change slightly, but it is definitely become distinctly smaller by area.
Do you think it will eventually become a toss-up, or even lean D after redistricting?

Here are the calculations for Sarpy County's share of citizens for Nebraska's 2nd CD:

Year	Pop. Nebraska	One third	Pop. Douglas	Pop. Sarpy	Share Sarpy	Percentage
2000	1,711,263	570,421	463,585	122,595	106,836	87.1%
2010	1,826,341	608,780	517,110	158,840	91,670	57.7%
2017	1,920,076	640,025	554,995	179,023	85,030	47.5%

Here are the margins of the election results in that districts:

2000: +18.40% R
2004: +21.72% R
2008: +  1.22% D
2012: +  7.15% R
2016: +  2.21% R

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Keep in mind that Mitt Romney won Douglas County, Nebraska.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I'd say it's toss-up to tilt-D in 2020. Trump only won it by about 2.5%.

[here2view]

I voted toss-up, but I would say it's more Tilt R than Lean R if that was a poll option.

[Skill and Chance]

It will move left pretty hard over the next decade assuming it keeps similar lines.  It should be the equivalent of a true swing state in 2020/24.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I voted toss-up, but I would say it's more Tilt R than Lean R if that was a poll option.

I thought there were only three ways of discrimination of a partisan tendencies: safe, likely, lean.
Lean probably means what you call tilt.

[TML]

I voted toss-up, but I would say it's more Tilt R than Lean R if that was a poll option.

I thought there were only three ways of discrimination of a partisan tendencies: safe, likely, lean.
Lean probably means what you call tilt.

According to definitions used by Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, tilt is between a pure tossup and lean.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If the district were redistricted today, what 85,030 people would have to live in NE-02?
Is it even possible that the state legislature completely dismisses Sarpy County and recruits people from Saunders/Dodge/Washington?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If the district were redistricted today, what 85,030 people would have to live in NE-02?
Is it even possible that the state legislature completely dismisses Sarpy County and recruits people from Saunders/Dodge/Washington?

no need to split Counties.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

If the district were redistricted today, what 85,030 people would have to live in NE-02?
Is it even possible that the state legislature completely dismisses Sarpy County and recruits people from Saunders/Dodge/Washington?

no need to split Counties.

There is if you want a not dumb map.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If the district were redistricted today, what 85,030 people would have to live in NE-02?
Is it even possible that the state legislature completely dismisses Sarpy County and recruits people from Saunders/Dodge/Washington?

no need to split Counties.

There is if you want a not dumb map.

That map I posted was quite nice. Not dumb at all, everything is very compact.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

If the district were redistricted today, what 85,030 people would have to live in NE-02?
Is it even possible that the state legislature completely dismisses Sarpy County and recruits people from Saunders/Dodge/Washington?

no need to split Counties.

There is if you want a not dumb map.

That map I posted was quite nice. Not dumb at all, everything is very compact.

It arbitrarily splits Omaha for no good reason.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If the district were redistricted today, what 85,030 people would have to live in NE-02?
Is it even possible that the state legislature completely dismisses Sarpy County and recruits people from Saunders/Dodge/Washington?

no need to split Counties.

There is if you want a not dumb map.

That map I posted was quite nice. Not dumb at all, everything is very compact.

It arbitrarily splits Omaha for no good reason.

Splitting Omaha >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Splitting Counties

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

If the district were redistricted today, what 85,030 people would have to live in NE-02?
Is it even possible that the state legislature completely dismisses Sarpy County and recruits people from Saunders/Dodge/Washington?

no need to split Counties.

There is if you want a not dumb map.

That map I posted was quite nice. Not dumb at all, everything is very compact.

It arbitrarily splits Omaha for no good reason.

Splitting Omaha >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Splitting Counties

Why do you care so much about arbitrary county lines that have literally zero bearing on communities of interest?

[Nyvin]

If the district were redistricted today, what 85,030 people would have to live in NE-02?
Is it even possible that the state legislature completely dismisses Sarpy County and recruits people from Saunders/Dodge/Washington?

no need to split Counties.

There is if you want a not dumb map.

That map I posted was quite nice. Not dumb at all, everything is very compact.

It arbitrarily splits Omaha for no good reason.

Splitting Omaha >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Splitting Counties

People travel from Douglas to Sarpy all the time, but there's probably tons of people from Douglas that have never once been to those rural counties up north in that red district.