Fair redistricting: Illinois

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Please turn on city/town lines when making a zoom map of the Twin Cities. As someone who grew up there, I can tell you that they matter locally. They also matter if I try to score the submissions.


MN has 3 UCCs to track. The Minneapolis UCC (Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Anoka, Scott, Wright, Carver, Sherbune) has about 4.6 CDs of population. That means the ideal plan from a UCC perspective only covers those counties with 5 CDs while putting 4 completely within that part of the metro. The other two UCCs are much smaller: St Cloud (Stearns, Benton) and Mankato (Blue Earth, Nicollet), and ideal those pairs should not be split.

I think it is very justified to have these 2 Counties split if you want to use the river as a boundary line between 2 Congressional Districts.

[muon2]

Here's my plan A submission, originally posted in 2013. Counties matter in the rural parts of the state and munis matter in the Twin Cities metro. This plan chops no counties except in the metro and chops no munis within a metro county. It gives up a UCC pack point to put St Cloud in the same CD as Sherburne county with includes part of the St Cloud city limits though it is in a different UCC due to suburbs on the east side of the county.




CD 1: (-1015) R+5.0
CD 2: (+513) R+3.3
CD 3: (+126) D+0.1
CD 4: (-1169) D+12
CD 5: (+632) D+25
CD 6: (+944) R+7.6
CD 7: (+191) R+13
CD 8: (-225) R+3.5

[muon2]

The goal in my plan B, also from 2013, was to separate St Cloud from the Twin Cities. Otherwise this plan also chops no counties outside the TC metro and no munis within a metro county. As discussed with other states this plan includes a CD that exceed 0.5%, but the overall range is less than 1%. Keeping Ramsey intact creates more skew for this plant than my plan A.




CD 1: (-2899) R+5.6
CD 2: (+3555) R+2.5
CD 3: (-432) R+1.6
CD 4: (-62) D+14
CD 5: (+632) D+25
CD 6: (-16) R+8.6
CD 7: (-2689) R+13
CD 8: (+1908) R+2.7

[muon2]

Please turn on city/town lines when making a zoom map of the Twin Cities. As someone who grew up there, I can tell you that they matter locally. They also matter if I try to score the submissions.


MN has 3 UCCs to track. The Minneapolis UCC (Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Anoka, Scott, Wright, Carver, Sherbune) has about 4.6 CDs of population. That means the ideal plan from a UCC perspective only covers those counties with 5 CDs while putting 4 completely within that part of the metro. The other two UCCs are much smaller: St Cloud (Stearns, Benton) and Mankato (Blue Earth, Nicollet), and ideal those pairs should not be split.

I think it is very justified to have these 2 Counties split if you want to use the river as a boundary line between 2 Congressional Districts.

I'll let you argue that point with BRTD. I think he would confirm how closely linked North Mankato is to Mankato. In any case splitting them counts the same as any other chop.

[windjammer]

Muon and Australia swing voter, could you make a 7 seats MN map please? As it seems a likely scenario.

[muon2]

Muon and Australia swing voter, could you make a 7 seats MN map please? As it seems a likely scenario.

We often engage in projected map-making when new census estimates come out. One of those exercises involving MN with 7 CDs for 2020 was in 2015. My plan is here. One can't just use DRA since it has 2010 data, and many of the counties and cities are projected to change relative to each other. In 2009 DRA came out with 2008 estimates and perhaps they'll do that again next year with 2018 estimates. I used a spreadsheet with the projections and then used DRA just as a drawing tool.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Muon and Australia swing voter, could you make a 7 seats MN map please? As it seems a likely scenario.

Certainly

[Strudelcutie4427]

1. R+6
2. R+1
3. R+2
4. D+14
5. D+26
6. R+10
7. R+12
8. R+3

[AustralianSwingVoter]

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS NOT A SUBMISSION
A rough idea of how 7 seats would have gone, in my opinion, in 2010.

District 1 R+04.94 - 51.0 - 46.6
District 7 R+01.70 - 49.7 - 48.5
District 3 R+06.49 - 46.3 - 51.8
District 4 D+11.83 - 61.2 - 36.9
District 5 D+22.20 - 69.9 - 28.2
District 6 R+12.65 - 46.5 - 51.0
District 7 R+04.71 - 52.6 - 44.9

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Minnesota Non-Partisan plan 1 (4 MSP districts).

My first non-partisan redistricting plan for Minnesota. Besides Hennepin, only 2 counties are split, Washington and Wright. There are four MSP districts.

District 1 R+05.14 - 50.2 - 47.5
District 2 D+01.98 - 52.6 - 45.5
District 3 R+03.32 - 48.2 - 50.0
District 4 D+13.78 - 62.6 - 35.5
District 5 D+25.28 - 72.7 - 25.4
District 6 R+11.83 - 45.2 - 52.4
District 7 R+13.12 - 45.8 - 51.9
District 8 R+03.30 - 53.8 - 43.8






Minnesota Non-Partisan plan 2 (5 MSP districts).

My second non-partisan redistricting plan for Minnesota. Besides Hennepin, only 44 counties are split, Wright and Wright. There are five MSP districts.

District 1 R+03.59 - 51.9 - 45.7
District 2 R+00.58 - 50.9 - 47.1
District 3 R+01.54 - 49.6 - 48.6
District 4 D+13.73 - 62.6 - 35.6
District 5 D+24.57 - 72.3 - 25.8
District 6 R+12.42 - 42.9 - 54.9
District 7 R+12.43 - 47.1 - 50.4
District 8 R+03.50 - 53.8 - 43.8

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Minnesota Non-Partisan plan 1 (4 MSP districts).

My first non-partisan redistricting plan for Minnesota. Besides Hennepin, only 2 counties are split, Washington and Wright. There are four MSP districts.

District 1 R+05.14 - 50.2 - 47.5
District 2 D+01.98 - 52.6 - 45.5
District 3 R+03.32 - 48.2 - 50.0
District 4 D+13.78 - 62.6 - 35.5
District 5 D+25.28 - 72.7 - 25.4
District 6 R+11.83 - 45.2 - 52.4
District 7 R+13.12 - 45.8 - 51.9
District 8 R+03.30 - 53.8 - 43.8






Minnesota Non-Partisan plan 2 (5 MSP districts).

My second non-partisan redistricting plan for Minnesota. Besides Hennepin, only 44 counties are split, Wright and Wright. There are five MSP districts.

District 1 R+03.59 - 51.9 - 45.7
District 2 R+00.58 - 50.9 - 47.1
District 3 R+01.54 - 49.6 - 48.6
District 4 D+13.73 - 62.6 - 35.6
District 5 D+24.57 - 72.3 - 25.8
District 6 R+12.42 - 42.9 - 54.9
District 7 R+12.43 - 47.1 - 50.4
District 8 R+03.50 - 53.8 - 43.8

Just noticed, in plan 2 half of all the districts are Obama-Republican PVI

[ilikeverin]

Here's my plan A submission, originally posted in 2013. Counties matter in the rural parts of the state and munis matter in the Twin Cities metro. This plan chops no counties except in the metro and chops no munis within a metro county. It gives up a UCC pack point to put St Cloud in the same CD as Sherburne county with includes part of the St Cloud city limits though it is in a different UCC due to suburbs on the east side of the county.




CD 1: (-1015) R+5.0
CD 2: (+513) R+3.3
CD 3: (+126) D+0.1
CD 4: (-1169) D+12
CD 5: (+632) D+25
CD 6: (+944) R+7.6
CD 7: (+191) R+13
CD 8: (-225) R+3.5

I feel like putting Eden Prairie and St. Cloud in one district would cause rioting!

[Gass3268]

Personally I think the current Minnesota map is near perfect.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Personally I think the current Minnesota map is near perfect.

No

Let me list all the chops (really stupidly high):

02 District Chops (1 point each):

07, 08: Beltrami County
06, 07: Stearns County
01, 07: Cottonwood County
01, 02: Rice County
03, 06: Carver County
03, 05: Hennepin County

03 District Chops (3 points each):

02, 04, 06: Washington County
03, 05, 06: Anoka County

This state, where it is easily possible to score 7 chop points, ended up with 12 chop points.

[cvparty]

Muh CounTIes

[Gass3268]

Where are the results for past states?

[cvparty]

Where are the results for past states?

Virginia thread, second (?) post

[muon2]

Muh CounTIes

If you lived in one of those MN counties, particularly the smaller ones, I think you would have a different attitude. On Solid's list, I've lived in two, plus one not on the list. They mattered to the residents, sometimes more than the municipality.

Do counties matter so little in FL? Are there no shared services at the county level?

[muon2]

Here's my plan A submission, originally posted in 2013. Counties matter in the rural parts of the state and munis matter in the Twin Cities metro. This plan chops no counties except in the metro and chops no munis within a metro county. It gives up a UCC pack point to put St Cloud in the same CD as Sherburne county with includes part of the St Cloud city limits though it is in a different UCC due to suburbs on the east side of the county.




CD 1: (-1015) R+5.0
CD 2: (+513) R+3.3
CD 3: (+126) D+0.1
CD 4: (-1169) D+12
CD 5: (+632) D+25
CD 6: (+944) R+7.6
CD 7: (+191) R+13
CD 8: (-225) R+3.5

I feel like putting Eden Prairie and St. Cloud in one district would cause rioting!

That was why I came up with a plan B back then.

[ilikeverin]

Here's my plan A submission, originally posted in 2013. Counties matter in the rural parts of the state and munis matter in the Twin Cities metro. This plan chops no counties except in the metro and chops no munis within a metro county. It gives up a UCC pack point to put St Cloud in the same CD as Sherburne county with includes part of the St Cloud city limits though it is in a different UCC due to suburbs on the east side of the county.




CD 1: (-1015) R+5.0
CD 2: (+513) R+3.3
CD 3: (+126) D+0.1
CD 4: (-1169) D+12
CD 5: (+632) D+25
CD 6: (+944) R+7.6
CD 7: (+191) R+13
CD 8: (-225) R+3.5

I feel like putting Eden Prairie and St. Cloud in one district would cause rioting!

That was why I came up with a plan B back then.

Yes, your Plan B is much more acceptable   To reiterate Muon's point, counties do matter quite a bit in Minnesota, including around the Cities.  Although I know the objective metrics rightly can't force it, folks around the Cities would breathe a lot easier if (1) Hennepin only had two districts (Minneapolis vs. suburbs + random other suburban county bits) and (2) Ramsay was kept whole... although AustralianSwingVoter's Map 1 split isn't a bad split if you must go three ways (save for the random Savage jaunt in District 2).

[they don't love you like i love you]

Muh CounTIes

If you lived in one of those MN counties, particularly the smaller ones, I think you would have a different attitude. On Solid's list, I've lived in two, plus one not on the list. They mattered to the residents, sometimes more than the municipality.

Do counties matter so little in FL? Are there no shared services at the county level?

True but that's not true for Anoka and Washington. Especially Anoka where there's no reason whatsoever for Nowthen and Columbia Heights to be in the same district.

[muon2]

That was why I came up with a plan B back then.

Yes, your Plan B is much more acceptable   To reiterate Muon's point, counties do matter quite a bit in Minnesota, including around the Cities.  Although I know the objective metrics rightly can't force it, folks around the Cities would breathe a lot easier if (1) Hennepin only had two districts (Minneapolis vs. suburbs + random other suburban county bits) and (2) Ramsay was kept whole... although AustralianSwingVoter's Map 1 split isn't a bad split if you must go three ways (save for the random Savage jaunt in District 2).

It's interesting to note that when Ramsey stays together it packs the Dems and makes the remaining suburban seats more Pub. It shows that the county can be more important than partisan fairness. The Hennepin-Ramsey rivalry reflected the suburban counterpart of the Minneapolis-St Paul rivalry, which is a real thing, not to mention the library and park services provided by the counties to areas outside of Mpls and St Paul proper (at least when I was living there).

[cvparty]

Muh CounTIes

If you lived in one of those MN counties, particularly the smaller ones, I think you would have a different attitude. On Solid's list, I've lived in two, plus one not on the list. They mattered to the residents, sometimes more than the municipality.

Do counties matter so little in FL? Are there no shared services at the county level?

I don't think I would. You say they "matter" over and over again, but what does that mean? In what sense? And how does that translate to "these people CANNOT be in different congressional districts"
I don't live in Florida either...

[muon2]

Muh CounTIes

If you lived in one of those MN counties, particularly the smaller ones, I think you would have a different attitude. On Solid's list, I've lived in two, plus one not on the list. They mattered to the residents, sometimes more than the municipality.

Do counties matter so little in FL? Are there no shared services at the county level?

I don't think I would. You say they "matter" over and over again, but what does that mean? In what sense? And how does that translate to "these people CANNOT be in different congressional districts"
I don't live in Florida either...

My bad, I was going off of your avatar.

I'm saying that people identify with their counties, and those shared services create a community of interest. I'm not saying that you can't split them, but that you should split them as little as possible absent other compelling reasons. States with neutral redistricting laws also recognize counties as entities that should be preserved intact to the extent possible.

[Torie]

In terms of salience in one's brain, I do think rural counties matter a lot more than urban ones. Heck even the little town[ships] matter. In Columbia County people make a fairly big deal as to what town they live in. Part of that might be that everybody knows personally the government officials in those towns.