Fair redistricting: California

[cvparty]

Hello, Atlas, and welcome to our fair redistricting project! We will be creating fair and representative congressional districts through a bipartisan panel of me (I), Singletxguyforfun (R), Sol (R), OPEN (D), and TimTurner (D). It is essential that you read the rules here.

Status

Submissions are OPEN until a long time. Feel free to submit up to TWO maps maximum, add a narrative/explanation to your map, and give feedback on other people's maps!

State order and directory
NM - CO - AZ - UT - NV - ID - OR - WA - HI - CA
*You have the entire order here, so try to stay ahead and have maps in advance.

[Sol]

Here's my New Mexico proposal. Sandoval and Bernallillo are the only split counties; Bernallillo is split along reservation lines.




The logic was to keep the Albequerque metro in as few districts as possible, and to unite as much of the Native groups in the NW as possible. It turned out that the best way to accomplish both was by having NM-01 donut hole around the city. NM-01 is plurality Latinx by population but plurality White by VAP, Natives are a strong minority.

NM-01: Dv. -119, PVI D+8.49
NM-02: Dv. +66, PVI R+7.01
NM-03: Dv. +53, PVI D+7.15

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No Counties split

PVI:

Red: D+7.33
Green: D+9.49
Blue: R+8.86

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's my New Mexico proposal. Sandoval and Bernallillo are the only split counties; Bernallillo is split along reservation lines.




The logic was to keep the Albequerque metro in as few districts as possible, and to unite as much of the Native groups in the NW as possible. It turned out that the best way to accomplish both was by having NM-01 donut hole around the city. NM-01 is plurality Latinx by population but plurality White by VAP, Natives are a strong minority.

NM-01: Dv. -119, PVI D+8.49
NM-02: Dv. +66, PVI R+7.01
NM-03: Dv. +53, PVI D+7.15

I love the beauty of this map.
What's the Native % in NM-01?

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Here's my New Mexico proposal. Sandoval and Bernallillo are the only split counties; Bernallillo is split along reservation lines.




The logic was to keep the Albequerque metro in as few districts as possible, and to unite as much of the Native groups in the NW as possible. It turned out that the best way to accomplish both was by having NM-01 donut hole around the city. NM-01 is plurality Latinx by population but plurality White by VAP, Natives are a strong minority.

NM-01: Dv. -119, PVI D+8.49
NM-02: Dv. +66, PVI R+7.01
NM-03: Dv. +53, PVI D+7.15

❤❤❤

That map is amazing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

❤❤❤

That map is amazing.

[empty-quoting this just to redouble my previous expression of support for this map]
Also, this is post #6000.

[Sol]

Aww, thanks y'all.

@Timturner--NM-01 is 20.9% Indian, 19.3% by VAP. So not a majority or even a plurality, but it's still a pretty high percentage. I'm not sure whether the number on Wikipedia is VAP or total population, but either way it's not especially different from the current NM-03 in Native population.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Aww, thanks y'all.

@Timturner--NM-01 is 20.9% Indian, 19.3% by VAP. So not a majority or even a plurality, but it's still a pretty high percentage. I'm not sure whether the number on Wikipedia is VAP or total population, but either way it's not especially different from the current NM-03 in Native population.

Your map is so good I plan on voting for it over a whole-county map I plan on submitting.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Lets actually propose something for once.



1: +842; D+9.63
2: +411; D+7.21
3: -1,253 ;R+8.48
I tried to keep the 2nd as contained to Albuquerque as possible, and made sure to not split reservations. The 1st is a hispanic/native seat.

[muon2]

Here's my New Mexico proposal. Sandoval and Bernallillo are the only split counties; Bernallillo is split along reservation lines.




The logic was to keep the Albequerque metro in as few districts as possible, and to unite as much of the Native groups in the NW as possible. It turned out that the best way to accomplish both was by having NM-01 donut hole around the city. NM-01 is plurality Latinx by population but plurality White by VAP, Natives are a strong minority.

NM-01: Dv. -119, PVI D+8.49
NM-02: Dv. +66, PVI R+7.01
NM-03: Dv. +53, PVI D+7.15

WMS is a long time poster from Albuquerque (I met him there in 2008). After the 2011 Census numbers came out he suggested a similar idea for the Albuquerque metro. His suggestion took Albuquerque, Los Ranchos de Albuquerque, and North Valley in Bernallilo along with Rio Rancho, Corrales, and Bernalillo in Sandoval county into CD 1. The 2010 populations add up to 673,678 and with the other unincorporated pockets it's exactly the population needed for a CD.

The voting districts don't quite line up, but shows how his idea chops no munis. As drawn in DRA this version is +308 in population. CD 3 is 19.1% Native VAP. CD 2 (as drawn by Sol) has 47.8% HVAP, which is a plurality of the VAP.



Of course the muon2 rules would prefer chopping only one of Bernalillo, Sandoval or Valencia while nesting a CD in two of those three counties.

[Sol]

Wasn't there some suggestion of considering reservations as separate counties under the rules? Under that standard my chop of Bernallilo wouldn't count

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This one splits no counties but likely splits a reservation or two.

[muon2]

Wasn't there some suggestion of considering reservations as separate counties under the rules? Under that standard my chop of Bernallilo wouldn't count

We looked at that, but it seems to depend on the state and where the population lies. The general direction seemed to be to count them as county subdivisions, and not penalize a chop if the only chop was to keep parts of the same reservation together.

BTW I haven't counted all the erosity yet, but I think this would be the muon2 plan that only chops one county for the ABQ area. The only muni chop is a small part of Albuquerque - less than 3000 people based on the available voting districts. I could possibly keep the city whole with access to census blocks. The Isleta IR is all within CD 1 and the Canoncito IR is entirely within CD 3. There's another piece of IR in nw Valencia, but it isn't in its own voting district and the VD is mostly the community of Correa and is Hispanic.



Sol's boundary is what I had for CD 2 so I won't repost that here. Here are the stats:

CD 1 (blue): -3; 45.7% HVAP, 44.3% WVAP; D+7.79
CD 2 (green): +66; 47.8% HVAP, 47.0% WVAP; R+7.01
CD 3 (violet): -63; 44.7% WVAP, 33.4% HVAP, 18.8% NVAP; D+7.83

Edited to reflect county subdivisions in Bernalillo.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

New Mexico plan

My non-partisan redistricting plan for New Mexico, only Sandoval County is split, and Rio Rancho is the only city split.

District 1 D+07.45 - 59.7 - 39.0
District 2 R+07.48 - 47.3 - 51.3
District 3 D+08.67 - 62.3 - 36.5

[muon2]

New Mexico plan

My non-partisan redistricting plan for New Mexico, only Sandoval County is split, and Rio Rancho is the only city split.

District 1 D+7.45 - 59.7 - 39.0
District 2 R+7.48 - 47.3 - 51.3
District 3 D+8.67 - 62.3 - 36.5

Can you put up a zoom shot of Albuquerque with the Rio Rancho chop?

[muon2]

New Mexico does not have organized county subdivisions in the sense of towns. To do a better job of chopping Bernalillo county while maintaining communities of interest, I've prepared a map of the county and city subdivisions. The subdivisions of Bernalillo county and Albuquerque city are based on their respective planning departments. Subdivisions are roughly aligned to voting districts; numbers 1 to 11 are in the city of Albuquerque. The populations and minority populations over 5% are:

1. ABQ: Northwest Mesa (74,118); HVAP 38.8%
2. ABQ: West Mesa (38,576); HVAP 52.7%
3. ABQ: Southwest Mesa (74,530); HVAP 77.5%
4. ABQ: Central (23,615); HVAP 59.4%
5. ABQ: Near Heights (79,454); HVAP 37.3%
6. ABQ: East Gateway (30,588); HVAP 37.2%
7. ABQ: Foothills (82,574); HVAP 24.1%
8. ABQ: Mid-Heights (49,957); HVAP 34.9%
9. ABQ: Near North Valley (24,086); HVAP 57.5%
10. ABQ: North I-25 (7,907); HVAP 40.5%
11. ABQ: North Albuquerque (62,477); HVAP 26.6%
12. Los Ranchos/North Valley (17,734); HVAP 49.4%
13. North Acres (11,291); HVAP 13.6%
14. East Mountain (19,350); HVAP 21.3%
15. South Valley (58,578); HVAP 76.7%
16. Kirtland AFB (3,685); HVAP 14.1%; BVAP 9.9%
17. Isleta Reservation (2,489); NVAP 86.0%, HVAP 11.0%
18. Canoncito Reservation (1,555); NVAP 93.3%



I'll use this in assessing scores that chop the county, and I'll amend my plan accordingly. I plan to do the same for other large counties that are chopped in submitted plans.

[Strudelcutie4427]

In my New Mexico map, I only split one county, Bernalillo, mostly along the Rio Grande (Marked in red on the 2nd map). The 2nd has no county chops and is what I call the West Texas district, and pretty safe Republican. The 3rd is a safe Democrat seat consisting of Eastern Albuquerque and the entirety of Santa Fe county. The 1st is a slightly Dem leaning but swingy seat in the Northwest, containing a very large Native American population. This one would be a perennial battleground seat.

1. D+2 (deviation -601) 38% Hispanic, 37% White, 21% Native American
2. R+7 (deviation 66) 53% Hispanic, 42% White
3. D+13 (deviation 535) 49% Hispanic, 43% White

[Dr. MB]

New Mexico plan

My non-partisan redistricting plan for New Mexico, only Sandoval County is split, and Rio Rancho is the only city split.

District 1 D+7.45 - 59.7 - 39.0
District 2 R+7.48 - 47.3 - 51.3
District 3 D+8.67 - 62.3 - 36.5

I was going to do a map, but it ended up identical to this one - down to the +7.45 D PVI, so I'll just second this nomination.

[jimrtex]

No County Splits. District 2 includes 78% of AIAN population.

NM-1 (Albuquerque) -0.11%; D 7.33; H 48%, A 42%; AIAN 4%; B 1%; As 2%; O 2%.
NM-2 (North) +0.09%; D 9.49; H 39%; A 38%; AIAN 20%; O 2%; B 1%; As 1%.
NM-3 (South) +0.02%; R 8.86; H 52%; A 42: AIAN 2%; B 2%; As 1%; O 1%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No County Splits. District 2 includes 78% of AIAN population.

NM-1 (Albuquerque) -0.11%; D 7.33; H 48%, A 42%; AIAN 4%; B 1%; As 2%; O 2%.
NM-2 (North) +0.09%; D 9.49; H 39%; A 38%; AIAN 20%; O 2%; B 1%; As 1%.
NM-3 (South) +0.02%; R 8.86; H 52%; A 42: AIAN 2%; B 2%; As 1%; O 1%.

That is the exact same map I posted lol.

[jimrtex]

No County Splits. District 2 includes 78% of AIAN population.

NM-1 (Albuquerque) -0.11%; D 7.33; H 48%, A 42%; AIAN 4%; B 1%; As 2%; O 2%.
NM-2 (North) +0.09%; D 9.49; H 39%; A 38%; AIAN 20%; O 2%; B 1%; As 1%.
NM-3 (South) +0.02%; R 8.86; H 52%; A 42: AIAN 2%; B 2%; As 1%; O 1%.

If you want to equal population, this shifts 620 persons from Sandoval into NM-1. This is in the notch in the northern border of Bernalillo, within the Village of Corrales. Prior to 2005 this area was in Bernalillo.



This shifts 117 persons from Valencia into NM-1. The area is along the Rio Grande east of I-25, where the Valencia border jogs north.



NM-1 +0.00000%
NM-2 +0.00015%
NM-3 -0.00015%

Standard Deviation 0.00012%

[AustralianSwingVoter]

New Mexico plan

My non-partisan redistricting plan for New Mexico, only Sandoval County is split, and Rio Rancho is the only city split.

District 1 D+7.45 - 59.7 - 39.0
District 2 R+7.48 - 47.3 - 51.3
District 3 D+8.67 - 62.3 - 36.5

Can you put up a zoom shot of Albuquerque with the Rio Rancho chop?

Here you are:

[muon2]

I'll start building a table to post SPICE scores for NM submissions here. NM has a PVI of D+3 and that projects to an advantage of 0.36 of a seat for the Dems. Rounding to whole numbers that would require a plan with 1 D 1R and 1 even seat to have a SKEW of 0. I think all the plans are 2 D and 1 R and they will have a SKEW of 1. The Albuquerque UCC is Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia and if those counties have more than 2 CDs it counts as an extra chop, as it does if no CD is nested in those three counties. A plan that picks up just the precinct needed to keep a reservation whole does not count as a chop, but if it picks up additional precincts in the chopped county it does count as a chop.

Plan	-S-	-P-	-I-	-C-	-E-
HCP	1	6	5	4	12
Sol	1	6	3	1	14
Solid4096	1	6	5	2	20
omegascarlet	1	6	6	6	16
TimTurner	1	6	11	2	12
muon2	1	6	3	1	15
AutralianSwingVoter	1	6	5	2	14
singletxguyforfun	1	5	5	4	19
jimrtex	1	6	5	2	20

Jimrtex's whole county plan is the same as Solid4096. The score for his plan that shifts one precinct from Sandoval to Bernalillo increases the chop and erosity by 1 each and decreases the inequality by 2: (1, 6, 3, 3, 21).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I'll start building a table to post SPICE scores for NM submissions here. NM has a PVI of D+3 and that projects to an advantage of 0.36 of a seat for the Dems. Rounding to whole numbers that would require a plan with 1 D 1R and 1 even seat to have a SKEW of 0. I think all the plans are 2 D and 1 R and they will have a SKEW of 1. The Albuquerque UCC is Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia and if those counties have more than 2 CDs it counts as an extra chop, as it does if no CD is nested in those three counties. A plan that picks up just the precinct needed to keep a reservation whole does not count as a chop, but if it picks up additional precincts in the chopped county it does count as a chop.

Plan	-S-	-P-	-I-	-C-	-E-
HCP	1	6	5	4	12
Sol	1	6	3	1	14
Solid4096	1	6	5	2	20
TimTurner	1	6	11	2	12
jimrtex	1	6	5	2	20

Jimrtex's whole county plan is the same as Solid4096.

If Sol is actually getting better scores with his very flawed plan than other plans that actually use sensible design methodology, then I think there is something that needs to be fixed with the muon rules. Probably the underlined part.

[cvparty]

I'll start building a table to post SPICE scores for NM submissions here. NM has a PVI of D+3 and that projects to an advantage of 0.36 of a seat for the Dems. Rounding to whole numbers that would require a plan with 1 D 1R and 1 even seat to have a SKEW of 0. I think all the plans are 2 D and 1 R and they will have a SKEW of 1. The Albuquerque UCC is Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia and if those counties have more than 2 CDs it counts as an extra chop, as it does if no CD is nested in those three counties. A plan that picks up just the precinct needed to keep a reservation whole does not count as a chop, but if it picks up additional precincts in the chopped county it does count as a chop.

Plan	-S-	-P-	-I-	-C-	-E-
HCP	1	6	5	4	12
Sol	1	6	3	1	14
Solid4096	1	6	5	2	20
TimTurner	1	6	11	2	12
jimrtex	1	6	5	2	20

Jimrtex's whole county plan is the same as Solid4096.

If Sol is actually getting better scores with his very flawed plan than other plans that actually use sensible design methodology, then I think there is something that needs to be fixed with the muon rules. Probably the underlined part.

muon2’s scoring system isn’t official it’s just for us to possibly consider
also, LOL