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  Gravis-FL: Nelson +4
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Author Topic: Gravis-FL: Nelson +4  (Read 2072 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: February 20, 2018, 10:56:41 am »

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/02/20/gravis-marketing-florida-poll/#sayfie

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson still holds a lead over his likely opponent, incumbent Governor Rick Scott. Nelsonís lead shrunk a bit from the previous poll from 44.2%-38.9% to 43.7%-39.8%.  The closeness of this race likely depends heavily upon the political environment.  Nelsonís advantage likely grows down the line with a likely screen.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2018, 11:05:53 am »

Remember when Cornelius Orban Harvey Truck Nuts McGillicuddy XXV was supposed to give Nelson the race of his life, then got blown out by double digits? Watch that happen again.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2018, 11:27:55 am »

Not a bad result considering the sample was R+2 (party affiliation, not ID).
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2018, 12:48:01 pm »

Yeah this isnít that bad of a result. I still think Nelson wins by about this margin in the end
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InvisibleTrump
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2018, 02:00:35 pm »

Remember when Cornelius Orban Harvey Truck Nuts McGillicuddy XXV was supposed to give Nelson the race of his life, then got blown out by double digits? Watch that happen again.
I don’t. That never happened and you’re only proving that you don’t know jack shit about what you’re talking about. That race was filled with B-list candidates (for statewide office at least) from the start. People like Hadripolis, Hasner, Mike McAlister, LeMieux, that Puerto Rican biblethumper lady, Dave Weldon, etc. There never was a strong candidate in that race. Mack cleared the field because he was wave insurance where the others weren’t even that. Note that none of them, bar Hasner perhaps, have any chance at any kind of comeback.

I know your itch to spew snark is strong, but isn’t the cardinal rule about snarkiness basically that the comment has to, you know, at least be somewhat accurate?
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2018, 02:11:50 pm »

Remember when Cornelius Orban Harvey Truck Nuts McGillicuddy XXV was supposed to give Nelson the race of his life, then got blown out by double digits? Watch that happen again.
I donít. That never happened and youíre only proving that you donít know jack shit about what youíre talking about. That race was filled with B-list candidates (for statewide office at least) from the start. People like Hadripolis, Hasner, Mike McAlister, LeMieux, that Puerto Rican biblethumper lady, Dave Weldon, etc. There never was a strong candidate in that race. Mack cleared the field because he was wave insurance where the others werenít even that. Note that none of them, bar Hasner perhaps, have any chance at any kind of comeback.

I know your itch to spew snark is strong, but isnít the cardinal rule about snarkiness basically that the comment has to, you know, at least be somewhat accurate?

You're trying too hard. He got a few good polls at the beginning of the cycle, and then people wouldn't shut up about how flawless and beautiful he was.
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2018, 02:59:35 pm »

Remember when Cornelius Orban Harvey Truck Nuts McGillicuddy XXV was supposed to give Nelson the race of his life, then got blown out by double digits? Watch that happen again.
I donít. That never happened and youíre only proving that you donít know jack shit about what youíre talking about. That race was filled with B-list candidates (for statewide office at least) from the start. People like Hadripolis, Hasner, Mike McAlister, LeMieux, that Puerto Rican biblethumper lady, Dave Weldon, etc. There never was a strong candidate in that race. Mack cleared the field because he was wave insurance where the others werenít even that. Note that none of them, bar Hasner perhaps, have any chance at any kind of comeback.

I know your itch to spew snark is strong, but isnít the cardinal rule about snarkiness basically that the comment has to, you know, at least be somewhat accurate?

You're trying too hard. He got a few good polls at the beginning of the cycle, and then people wouldn't shut up about how flawless and beautiful he was.

Well, in 2014, Scott got plenty of bad polls at the beginning and then people wouldn't shut up about how he was DOA. We all saw how that turned out.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2018, 03:22:32 pm »

LEAN D!!! Come on Nelson, you are the one man band, YOU ARE the Florida Democratic Party!
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Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2018, 03:39:06 pm »

Looks like Nelson has a good opening here to pull this more into his favor. If an election was held today, I think either could win, but Nelson would probably edge out by a couple of points over Scott. A big problem of his is name recognition. He is rather low-key and relatively unknown despite being there forever, while Scott has done well strategically and his name and money is big. The opening is the CNN town hall with students and parents tomorrow. This is Nelson's chance to rip into Scott who will not be attending, while Nelson will be attending, and raise himself up to boost his name rec. In addition to ripping into Scott, he needs to say that this is a necessary bipartisan dialogue with Marco Rubio attending and discussing an important issue, but for some reason your governor cannot attend etc.

Oh, and Trump is not going either.
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InvisibleTrump
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2018, 03:45:37 pm »
« Edited: February 20, 2018, 04:58:34 pm by Brittain33 »

Remember when Cornelius Orban Harvey Truck Nuts McGillicuddy XXV was supposed to give Nelson the race of his life, then got blown out by double digits? Watch that happen again.
I donít. That never happened and youíre only proving that you donít know jack shit about what youíre talking about. That race was filled with B-list candidates (for statewide office at least) from the start. People like Hadripolis, Hasner, Mike McAlister, LeMieux, that Puerto Rican biblethumper lady, Dave Weldon, etc. There never was a strong candidate in that race. Mack cleared the field because he was wave insurance where the others werenít even that. Note that none of them, bar Hasner perhaps, have any chance at any kind of comeback.

I know your itch to spew snark is strong, but isnít the cardinal rule about snarkiness basically that the comment has to, you know, at least be somewhat accurate?

You're trying too hard. He got a few good polls at the beginning of the cycle, and then people wouldn't shut up about how flawless and beautiful he was.
Do you just project strawman conceptions of me or do you actually engage my posts? I have been realistic about the fact that Scott, while competitive, isn't going to win this. He's just A+ wave insurance whereas Connie Mack was merely a C+ candidate. Mack was a name that people knew and the RPOF could put on the ballot to ensure that those turned off by Romney don't completely bolt down-ballot. He was never a winning candidate, was never seen as one by anyone accept for the "horse racers" in the press, and people like you who see a big name on a wiki page and assume they know something about Florida politics.
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Mondale
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2018, 05:08:39 pm »

I just can't see Nelson losing
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2018, 05:52:34 pm »

This is going to be an inverted Ohio 2016, where the challenger seems very competitive at first, but loses by a heavy margin in the end.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2018, 07:49:05 pm »

This will end up being a Democratic hold.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2018, 09:51:39 am »

Well, not bad for Nelson but when the poll winner is at 44%, this race is wide open. We can talk if he gets to 49% or 50%. Pure toss-up.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2018, 04:42:57 pm »

Nelson is one of my least favorite dems ever(I'd still vote for him over Scott) but Rick Scott (aka Voldemort) has ZERO charisma and is a terrible candidate. He only won in 2014 because of the national wave against dems.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2018, 05:18:22 pm »

Remember when Cornelius Orban Harvey Truck Nuts McGillicuddy XXV was supposed to give Nelson the race of his life, then got blown out by double digits? Watch that happen again.
I donít. That never happened and youíre only proving that you donít know jack shit about what youíre talking about. That race was filled with B-list candidates (for statewide office at least) from the start. People like Hadripolis, Hasner, Mike McAlister, LeMieux, that Puerto Rican biblethumper lady, Dave Weldon, etc. There never was a strong candidate in that race. Mack cleared the field because he was wave insurance where the others werenít even that. Note that none of them, bar Hasner perhaps, have any chance at any kind of comeback.

I know your itch to spew snark is strong, but isnít the cardinal rule about snarkiness basically that the comment has to, you know, at least be somewhat accurate?

You're trying too hard. He got a few good polls at the beginning of the cycle, and then people wouldn't shut up about how flawless and beautiful he was.
Do you just project strawman conceptions of me or do you actually engage my posts? I have been realistic about the fact that Scott, while competitive, isn't going to win this. He's just A+ wave insurance whereas Connie Mack was merely a C+ candidate. Mack was a name that people knew and the RPOF could put on the ballot to ensure that those turned off by Romney don't completely bolt down-ballot. He was never a winning candidate, was never seen as one by anyone accept for the "horse racers" in the press, and people like you who see a big name on a wiki page and assume they know something about Florida politics.


Mack was rated as a better candidate by the ďexpertsĒ at this point in 2012 than you give him credit for.
Sabato and Cook had Florida at tossup.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/tilting-the-toss-ups-the-eight-races-that-will-decide-the-senate/

Of course I agree with you in that I always found Nelsonís vulnerability and his challengersí supposed strengths to be overhyped, even back then. But Florida was certainly seen as a tossup race in 2012 for a good part of the year because of Mackís ďgame-changing entry.Ē

I'm old enough to remember when the pundits were in a tizzy because a few polls in summer 2012 showed Cornholius crushing Nelson, lol.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2018, 06:38:52 pm »

Remember when Cornelius Orban Harvey Truck Nuts McGillicuddy XXV was supposed to give Nelson the race of his life, then got blown out by double digits? Watch that happen again.
I donít. That never happened and youíre only proving that you donít know jack shit about what youíre talking about. That race was filled with B-list candidates (for statewide office at least) from the start. People like Hadripolis, Hasner, Mike McAlister, LeMieux, that Puerto Rican biblethumper lady, Dave Weldon, etc. There never was a strong candidate in that race. Mack cleared the field because he was wave insurance where the others werenít even that. Note that none of them, bar Hasner perhaps, have any chance at any kind of comeback.

I know your itch to spew snark is strong, but isnít the cardinal rule about snarkiness basically that the comment has to, you know, at least be somewhat accurate?

You're trying too hard. He got a few good polls at the beginning of the cycle, and then people wouldn't shut up about how flawless and beautiful he was.
Do you just project strawman conceptions of me or do you actually engage my posts? I have been realistic about the fact that Scott, while competitive, isn't going to win this. He's just A+ wave insurance whereas Connie Mack was merely a C+ candidate. Mack was a name that people knew and the RPOF could put on the ballot to ensure that those turned off by Romney don't completely bolt down-ballot. He was never a winning candidate, was never seen as one by anyone accept for the "horse racers" in the press, and people like you who see a big name on a wiki page and assume they know something about Florida politics.


Mack was rated as a better candidate by the ďexpertsĒ at this point in 2012 than you give him credit for.
Sabato and Cook had Florida at tossup.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/tilting-the-toss-ups-the-eight-races-that-will-decide-the-senate/

Of course I agree with you in that I always found Nelsonís vulnerability and his challengersí supposed strengths to be overhyped, even back then. But Florida was certainly seen as a tossup race in 2012 for a good part of the year because of Mackís ďgame-changing entry.Ē

Yeah, I think Sanchez is so intent on getting a burn in that he's forgotten how the race was actually covered in 2012. Like I said, Scott's run is going to be a McGillicuddy redux - he'll get a few good polls that'll make pundits swoon, then proceed to sink like a stone. He might even do worse, since the national environment is much less friendly to Republicans than it was in 2012.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2018, 12:57:30 am »

Now Safe D.
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Speaker YE
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« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2018, 12:59:35 am »


FL doesn't strike me as a pro-gun state but you're the reverse King Lear.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #19 on: February 22, 2018, 01:22:27 am »

FL doesn't strike me as a pro-gun state but you're the reverse King Lear.
Rick Scott didn't even show up to the debate, he won't win another race.
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jfern
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« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2018, 01:26:47 am »

It's Gravis.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2018, 04:00:37 pm »

Cornelius Orban Harvey Truck Nuts McGillicuddy XXV

Lol
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Holmes
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« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2018, 04:13:09 pm »


They've been surprisingly decent lately.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2018, 05:53:32 pm »

Here is the only evidence that suggests Rick Scott will win.
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