Donald vs. Bernie: Who would win?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bernie is seen as a radical Socialist and will crumble in the GE against Trump.

How on earth does Bernie win MI and lose NV and MN?

Well he wouldnt lose MN but he is a better fit for MI than either of those states.

[Liberalrocks]

snip

Trump 273
Bernie 265

Iowa might stay with Trump, but his approvals are down substantially since November.

You logically should know that PA is not voting to the right of IA in this scenario, but you can't allow that because Bernie *must* lose.

The idea that Bernie might lose because he's "too radical" ignore the lessons learned from 2016: The Democrats need not be cowards to win.

 No actually I feel I have been overly generous to Bernie considering Alt Centrist and other valid points listed above. Re: Iowa no not necessarily, in Iowa and other states every election is not perfectly tailored after the last, Bernie had an an artificial populist appeal that resonated with segments of the Iowa electorate that is why I went out on a limb and gave it to him, however it might not last through a general election smear campaign which is certainty what Trump would need to win. I could see Trump holding Pennsylvania due in large part to rural margins. Rural Pennsylvania counties are very different then the Iowa counties needed to get a *Democrat* a win.

[Burke Bro]

Realistic Map (303-235)

Landslide Fantasy Map (389-149)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Realistic map including tossups: (265-192-81)

Depending on how the campaign goes, those states can go either way, however, imo this is the most likely scenario: (302-236)

[Crenton]

The Democrats need not be cowards to win.

I can agree with this statement, which is why I strongly support Kirsten Gillibrand for President. She has stood up to sexual predators and has shown great bravery not just for women, but for all Americans.

Strongly agreed.

Bernie is not a very strong candidate and would in fact lose to a conventional Republican, but for every weakness he has, Trump has a similar yet bigger one.

The election defies conventional knowledge as Sanders does just fine in the suburbs/among minorities while not improving above Clinton in places such as NE Ohio or western Pennsylvania (he lost them in the primary and it wasn't even close.) His real strength is in areas that have zero institutional Democratic power, though.

As for the swing states, Florida is safe R due to Cubans swinging against Sanders, Arizona is a toss-up, Iowa depends wholly on farmland prices (it only voted for Trump because farmland prices fell under a Democratic administration) and New Hampshire/Maine are safe D. The rest are as expected in a Generic D/Generic R race.

[sverkol]

The Democrats need not be cowards to win.

I can agree with this statement, which is why I strongly support Kirsten Gillibrand for President. She has stood up to sexual predators and has shown great bravery not just for women, but for all Americans.

Strongly agreed.

Bernie is not a very strong candidate and would in fact lose to a conventional Republican, but for every weakness he has, Trump has a similar yet bigger one.

The election defies conventional knowledge as Sanders does just fine in the suburbs/among minorities while not improving above Clinton in places such as NE Ohio or western Pennsylvania (he lost them in the primary and it wasn't even close.) His real strength is in areas that have zero institutional Democratic power, though.

As for the swing states, Florida is safe R due to Cubans swinging against Sanders, Arizona is a toss-up, Iowa depends wholly on farmland prices (it only voted for Trump because farmland prices fell under a Democratic administration) and New Hampshire/Maine are safe D. The rest are as expected in a Generic D/Generic R race.

Bullish**t,the millennials tornout will smash Trump in any swing state including Florida.
And for any anti Sanders Cuban voter going to be an anti Trump Puerto Rican voter(in 2020 Pearto rican population in Florida going to be lager than cuabn population in Florida).
And there is many cuban who actually supports Bernie becuase they know the diffrence between Cuba and Denmark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpnP2Cz47to

[Rookie Yinzer]

Bernie would probably win. Only because Trump is god-awful and his presidency is not a hypothetical like it was 2016. Listening to the Bernie bros jerk off about how indestructible Bernie is and how he should have been the nominee in 2016 (when he actually would have lost) would be sooooooooo annoying.

[lekmanin]

Probably Donald. American's will struggle to vote for the far left, even if its against Trump.

[TC 25]

The map looks like it does in 2016.  Nevada and Minnesota and Virginia could tilt right.  Bernie could win back WI and MI and probably ekes out NH

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

I’d vote for Trump but I think Sanders would be elected president

[Fuzzy Bear]

Bernie would probably win. Only because Trump is god-awful and his presidency is not a hypothetical like it was 2016. Listening to the Bernie bros jerk off about how indestructible Bernie is and how he should have been the nominee in 2016 (when he actually would have lost) would be sooooooooo annoying.

If Bernie (A) was actually a Democrat, and (B) never made the "democratic socialist" characterization of himself, I'd have picked him to win.  

In the end, I believe that there would be enough voters who would otherwise vote Democratic who would be skittish on Sanders for the democratic socialist comment.  Of course, I don't believe that the Democratic Party establishment will allow him near the nomination.  They just can't rig it as they did for that appalling sewer rat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

[DabbingSanta]

A much more realistic map. Bernie wins 337-201. Most competitive states are AZ, GA, NC, OH, and WI.

[thumb21]

How is this even a question? Of course Bernie would win. Anyone who says otherwise is completely oblivious to reality.

[Crenton]

It's possible that some people believe socially liberal, but fiscally conservative voters would choose Trump in this scenario, and several posters think Sanders would do badly with minorities.

[DabbingSanta]

It's possible that some people believe socially liberal, but fiscally conservative voters would choose Trump in this scenario, and several posters think Sanders would do badly with minorities.

Sure, some moderates might switch parties, but I can't see an unpopular incumbent gaining that much support.  The latter simply wouldn't turn out, as Trump is anathema to most minority groups.

[Not a Partisan Hack ( ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡°)]

Neither Trump nor Bernie win the 2020 elections. The Russians are the ones who win, because they get to decide the results.

[DabbingSanta]

Michael Bloomberg/Dan Lipinski unity ticket wins 500+ EVs after people find out that Sanders is a communist who supports healthcare and Trump has a pottymouth.

Neither Trump nor Bernie win the 2020 elections. The Russians are the ones who win, because they get to decide the results.

 

[Meclazine for Israel]

If Trumpy gets his immigration reforms through, then he has half a chance.

Apparently, voters want to see a wall or something which limits people from entering the USA from "sh**t-hole" countries.

I dont think the Democrats will go with Bernie.

They will set him up with some dossier falsified by an ex-British spy and touted as evidence to gain a FISA warrant to get the FBI to spy on his campaign in order to get more dirt.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

In 2016, Sanders would have won. In 2020, I think Trump would win.

A lot of those WWC voters aren't turning back and Sanders will come out of a crowded Democrat primary battered in 2020 if he somehow did get the nomination. Sanders has appeal for sure, but much of his vote was anti-Hillary in 2016. Utah and West Virginia weren't just enthralled by his far left viewpoints. Sanders wins 2016 over Trump because many right-leaning suburban voters would have stayed home or voted third party. Now that they've seen Trump govern largely like a normal conservative, I think they'd vote for Trump over Sanders. Don't underestimate the fear instilled in the hearts of soccer moms and upper middle class white collar workers everywhere at the sound of the word socialist.

[Cold War Liberal]

It's possible that some people believe socially liberal, but fiscally conservative voters would choose Trump in this scenario, and several posters think Sanders would do badly with minorities.

Sure, some moderates might switch parties, but I can't see an unpopular incumbent gaining that much support.  The latter simply wouldn't turn out, as Trump is anathema to most minority groups.

Uhhh, seeing as Trump is as popular among white people as bocce ball, country music, and unseasoned meat (read: more popular than not, though not universally supported), if minorities simply didn't turn out, Bernie would lose by 3 or 4 points...

[Chief Justice Keef]

How is this even a question? Of course Bernie would win. Anyone who says otherwise is completely oblivious to reality.

[TDAS04]

How is this even a question? Of course Bernie would win. Anyone who says otherwise is completely oblivious to reality.

Yeah, just like all those who said Hillary could lose were oblivious to reality.

[Koharu]

I'm not sure for 2020. It's a tough call.

I do know that the Republicans wanted Bernie to win the nod in 2016 because they thought they could beat him easily. Once again, recall that one of the biggest "insults" used against Obama during his term was that he was a "socialist." Of course, he was nothing of the kind. But Bernie is an actual, admitted socialist, and that wouldn't go over nearly as well as many here on Atlas think it would. Bernie would have lost against Trump in 2016, but I'm not sure in 2020. The damage Trump has done may have angered enough people that they'd be willing to vote for Bernie. If forced to choose, I say Trump would win 2020 as well. Bernie admits to being an atheist Jew. Trump pretends to be a Christian and gives the religious right the things they want, so they'll still turn out for him.

[SInNYC]

I think a lot depends on whether Bernie can get the party to unify behind him. Will conservative Democrats be sniping against him during the whole campaign, or heaven forbid not run/support a 3rd party campaign?

[The Govanah Jake]

I'd say Michigan, Pennsylvania flip most likely. This is followed by Wisconsin and Florida, and the second tier states like Arizona and North Carolina after that. I won't exaggerate that the word "socialist" will scare some away from Sanders, but Trump is not a appealing counter to these concerns. Any attempts at throwing, say, past scandals that Sanders had could simply be countered by the simple fact that Trimp became President. Trump is not some "Moral Majority" Politican and I'd say like in 2016, Sanders could prove the toughest opponent Trump could face. Now I doubt we will see a mass flipping of disaffected 2016 Trump voters (unless the economy crashes) as most of those White Working Class types are probably gone for most Democrats by now, but I could see Sanders picking up enough for victory Nationwide. His style and tone would make it hard for Trump to attack with words other then "Socialist/Communist" or "Crazy" and I hope the Sanders would be component enough to successful put these attacks to rest. Too the Age Issue, Sanders would just be a few years older then Trump anyway, and I think it is fairly uncontroversial enough to say that he is healthier then the Fast Food eating Trump.

Finally, I hate too see Sanders be styled as a Socialist when talking casually. He is not radical and is a pretty standard Social Democrat. Now he may be categorized as a Socialist too the American Public, but I hope in a politically education place like this forum we use correct terminology.