Tasmanian state election - 3rd March 2018

[Lachi]

Sad to see big lobbies win an election for the liberals... Unfortunately, it's par for the course.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sad to see big lobbies win an election for the liberals... Unfortunately, it's par for the course.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Antony Green "Pretty confident the Liberals have 13 seats"

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ABC projects likely Liberal majority.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The question in Lyons is which Labor candidate will be their second member, with Rebecca White above quota and the three incumbent Liberals running clearly elected.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Rebecca White should be going to the tally room to concede at half past.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In Franklin Will Hodgman is getting more than double the quota, and David O'Byrne for Labor is just short, so both will easily win. Jacquie Petrusma, despite getting only a third of the quota will easily be re-elected on the bulk of Will Hodgman's quota. Past that the question is which of Alison Standen and Kevin Midson will be the second Labor member, who will be the third Liberal in the running (odds on incumbent Nic Street) and whether the third Liberal or Rosalie Woodruff, the incumbent Green, will be fifth.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

BREAKING:
ABC PROJECTS LIBERAL MAJORITY

[AustralianSwingVoter]

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Antony Green has projected a second Liberal member in Denison.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Will Hodgman is now only the second Liberal Premier to win two terms of majority government

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In Denison Scott Bacon has exceeded quota and Elise Archer has nearly reached quota so both will obviously be re-elected, and Greens leader Cassy O'Connor will reach quota on preferences from fellow Greens candidates. Sue Hickey will reach quota on preferences from the other three Liberal candidates, leaving a three-way fight between incumbent Madeleine Ogilvie, Ella Haddad and Tim Cox for the second Labor seat.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In Braddon Jeremy Rockliff has easily exceeded quota, and Adam Brooks is just short, so both will easily be re-elected. The first and second Labor candidates, incumbent Shane Broad and Anita Dow, and the third and fourth Liberal members, Roger Jaensch and Joan Rylah will all be fighting for three seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Rebecca White's walking into the tally room right now to give her concession speech.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

"Labor is stronger because of this election" "We have very nearly pushed the incumbent government to defeat()"

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In Bass incumbent Liberals Peter Gutwein and Michael Ferguson and incumbent Labor member Michelle O'Byrne all exceed quota. The third Liberal member Sarah Courtney currently sits on just over half a quota, and should easily reach the quota on her fellow Liberal members surpluses. Leaving incumbent Green Andrea Dawkins and Labor's second candidate Jennifer Houston to battle it out for fifth.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

She's thanked Labor voters and is now talking about why people voted Labor

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Typical buzzwords, Health, Transport, Education, Transparency etc

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Key quote from Eric Abetz, make of it what you will - “I don’t think there are any federal implications here”

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The definite seat count is:
LIB - 13
LAB - 8
GRN - 1
This leaves the seats in doubt being:
Fifth in Bass: Labor vs Greens
Fifth in Braddon: Labor vs Liberal
Fifth in Franklin: Liberal vs Greens
Meaning the final seat count ranges are:
LIB - 13-15
LAB - 8-10
GRN - 1-3

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Normal fear mongering "it should not be the case that you can buy a seat in the Tasmanian parliament."

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Something important to point out, there is a good chance that the Liberals won't lose a single seat, even holding on to their fourth in Braddon

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We should be hearing from Greens leader Cassy O'Connor shortly per ABC

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberal chances in Franklin have improved, they are currently on 2.91 quotas compared with 0.85 quotas for the Greens, and with Labor on 2.07 quotas and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers on 0.16 quotas. The Shooters preferences will massively favour the Liberals, which should more than make up for preference leakage from Will Hodgman's massive surplus.