South Australian state election - 17th March 2018

[Lachi]

This parliament looking like it'll be 23-24 in terms of Liberal+other and Labor+other.

[Lachi]

Still absolutely nothing in Dunstan. It will NOT happen, but it would be hilarious if Marshall lost and Labor got a path to government.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Something weird's happening in Waite.

Not anymore atleast

[Lachi]

First figures from Dunstan, Marshall is on 53.4% 2PP

[Lachi]

Liberals win Majority government.

[Lachi]

ABC projection
LIBERAL MAJORITY OF 5
LIB: 26
LAB: 18
IND: 3

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sorry about the interlude, just had to eat dinner, however while I was gone it seems that Antony's called it. I don't think the Liberals getting 26 seats was anyones prediction.

[Lord Halifax]

ABC projection
LIBERAL MAJORITY OF 5
LIB: 26
LAB: 18
IND: 3

What happened to Team Xenophon?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

3rd in 27 years to come into government while your party holds federal government. Hodgman and Carr are the other two.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Sorry about the interlude, just had to eat dinner, however while I was gone it seems that Antony's called it. I don't think the Liberals getting 26 seats was anyones prediction.

Certainly not mine! Underestimated the likes of King (had that as a Liberal gain earlier), Hartley and Newland to name 3.

Also, Light seems to be a safe Labor seat now - Tony Piccolo must be made of gold, and/or Gawler is trending red.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Back in the 90s Norwood, the predecessor of Dunstan, would take a few hours to come in because the returning officer would have to ride his bike to the Town Hall to give the official numbers.

[Lachi]

ABC projection
LIBERAL MAJORITY OF 5
LIB: 26
LAB: 18
IND: 3

What happened to Team Xenophon?

They haven't done near as well as people expected, they're pulling 18% in the seats they are running in, and 14% statewide. They have come second in quite a few seats, but they have been destroyed on preferences.

Parties like Xenophon's can get to 15% without too much difficulty, but always struggle to get to the point where the floodgates would open, like at 25-30%

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sorry about the interlude, just had to eat dinner, however while I was gone it seems that Antony's called it. I don't think the Liberals getting 26 seats was anyones prediction.

Certainly not mine! Underestimated the likes of King (had that as a Liberal gain earlier), Hartley and Newland to name 3.

Also, Light seems to be a safe Labor seat now - Tony Piccolo must be made of gold, and/or Gawler is trending red.

Light's been moving leftward for a long time, however not just because of the transformation of Gawler from a regional town to a dormitory suburb. Light has, over the years, been shedding the rural areas and taking ever bigger chunks of salt-of-the-earth working class Munno Para

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ABC projection
LIBERAL MAJORITY OF 5
LIB: 26
LAB: 18
IND: 3

What happened to Team Xenophon?

What happens to all third parties in FPTP. It flopped.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ABC projection
LIBERAL MAJORITY OF 5
LIB: 26
LAB: 18
IND: 3

What happened to Team Xenophon?

They haven't done near as well as people expected, they're pulling 18% in the seats they are running in, and 14% statewide. They have come second in quite a few seats, but they have been destroyed on preferences.

Parties like Xenophon's can get to 20% without too much difficulty, but always struggle to get to the point where the floodgates would open, like at 25-30%

Also I think Xenophon could've broken the floodgates if the election had been a month ago, at the start of the campaign but the campaign has been brutal to them. Both Labor and Liberal have preferenced against them by and large and since the ad just about everything has gone wrong.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Well this is great news! Time to play some Left 4 Dead 2 (one of the many video games that was butchered or banned courtesy of Michael Atkinson, former Attorney-General and now ex-member for Croydon).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

King is the only seat which has flipped compared to the notionals, and that was, on Antony's notionals, the most marginal seat with a margin of only 0.1 for Labor. Essentially, this is a no change election, it's just that the boundaries were changed enough that the Liberals should have won on them last time.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jay Weatherhill is conceding.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I've calculated some early Legislative Council numbers

Liberal	31.78%	3.814	3-4
Labor	29.56%	3.548	3-4
SA Best	18.94%	2.273	2
Greens	5.63%	0.675	0-1
Conservatives	3.53%	0.423	0
Liberal Democrats	2.49%	0.299	0
Animal Justice	2.19%	0.263	0
Dignity	1.89%	0.227	0-1
Child Protection	1.71%	0.206	0
Stop Population Growth	1.26%	0.156	0
Amrik Singh Thandi	0.48%	0.058	0
Advance SA	0.42%	0.051	0
Racing means Jobs	0.05%	0.007	0
Honest Transparent Accountable	0.04%	0.005	0
Danig	0.01%	0.002	0

[Lachi]

Looking like it could be 4 LIB, 4 LAB, 2 SA-B, 1 GRN in the upper house. Sad that Dignity lost their only seat in the upper house.

Also, eww, Marshall calling Howard a good PM.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Looking like it could be 4 LIB, 4 LAB, 2 SA-B, 1 GRN in the upper house. Sad that Dignity lost their only seat in the upper house.

Also, eww, Marshall calling Howard a good PM.

On dignity it's worth noting that since 2010 their vote has gone up 0.7%, from 1.2% to 1.9%. So I'm not ruling them out, or the Conservatives.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Something extremely important which I only just noticed, for the first time since 1997, Nick Xenophon does not have a seat in an Australian parliament.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Updated Legislative Council figures

Liberal	31.6%	3.80
Labor	29.6%	3.55
SA BEST	19.0%	2.28
Greens	5.9%	0.71
Conservatives	3.6%	0.43
Liberal Democrats	2.4%	0.29
Animal Justice	2.1%	0.26
Dignity	2.0%	0.24
Child Protection	1.5%	0.18
Stop Population Growth Now	1.2%	0.14
Amrik Singh Thandi	0.5%	0.06
Advance SA	0.4%	0.05
Racing means Jobs	0.1%	0.01
Honest Transparent Accountable	0.0%	0.00
Danig	0.0%	0.00

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On the Independents:

Florey and Mount Gambier are just pre-selection disputes
Florey - There's a good chance Frances Bedford will rejoin Labor, but even if she doesn't she has promised to take the Labor whip.
Mount Gambier - Troy Bell was kicked out after an ICAC inquiry resulted in 20 counts of theft and six counts of dishonestly dealing with documents being brought against him. Obviously, corruption is bad so he was kicked out, however he is quite popular, has been re-elected and will quite possibly rejoin the Liberals if they allow him back.

The only real Independent is re-elected Geoff Brock in Frome.

[IceAgeComing]

Can't say this for sure until they release a TPP number (which SA are constitutionally bound to do) but there's actually a pretty good chance that the overall TPP swing is towards Labor - I'm basing this on a cursory look at the swings that are available at the moment so I could be wrong.  Even considering that the fact that the Liberals have won is hardly a surprise: the redistribution because of the Fairness Clause screwed over the ALP and while they've managed to overcome it the last few elections there naturally comes a point where you've reached your max in certain communities and that may well be what has happened.  Its actually a reverse of the last few elections where there were big swings towards the Liberals but Labor were able to hold onto (well "notionally gain" would probably be more accurate) to places that had been redistributed in the Liberals favour while in this election things are a bit all over the place because of Xenophon but broadly Labor have at worst held up and at best moved forward slightly but they've not been able to gain more support in those redistributed seats hence why they've lost government.  Its not good for them - losing never is good - but its hardly a disaster and the Xenophon thing was a much bigger disaster.

This might be duplicating someone else in the thread but I tried reading it all and then realised that its the same person posting over and over and over again basically filibustering the conversation and that's never interesting to read.