South Australian state election - 17th March 2018

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Man FF really made a crappy deal with Cory. They lost their established brand and gained nothing.

[Lachi]

Preferences from the Greens, Dignity, AJP, and the like should get labor over the line.

I'm disappointed Kelly Vincent missed out on re-election though

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Dennis Hood, the Conservative MLC elected in 2014, has defected to the Liberals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Preferences from the Greens, Dignity, AJP, and the like should get labor over the line.

I'm disappointed Kelly Vincent missed out on re-election though

Animal Justice preferences will flow overwhelmingly to the Greens, however the Greens will be elected right at the end of the count. Meanwhile the Liberals should reach the fourth quota quite early in distribution of preferences, given that they'll get the bulk of Child Protection preferences, and their surplus, along with Liberal Democrat preferences, will flow overwhelmingly to the Conservatives. Dignity preferences will probably split into thirds, one going to SA Best, one going to Labor and one going to the Greens.

Overall preferences are split pretty evenly between Labor and the Conservatives.
Labor will get the Greens surplus, including those originally from Animal Justice, most Dignity votes,

The Conservatives will get the Liberal surplus, including those originally from Child Protection, and the Liberal Democrats preferences.

SA Best preferences will split 50/50, as although they're breaking 60/40 in favour of the Liberals I'm certain that a chunk of 2 Liberal votes will put Labor over the Conservatives.

Stop Population Growth Now preferences will be weird, as there'll be the donkey votes which will either exhaust or go to the Greens then the Liberals, actual voters which will split 50/50 between the Conservatives and the Greens (wondering how on earth any party could have such weird preferences?
 Stop Population Growth Now is essentially anti-immigration environmentalists)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Unfortunately I have been distracted so I missed that ECSA has been releasing the final declarations for House of Assembly seats today. There's currently only 3 seats left, Mackillop, Morphett and Taylor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Elizabeth has been recounted as Labor vs SA Best. This has reduced the margin from 17.7 to 13.9.

Port Adelaide and Ramsay have been recounted between Labor and SA Best. In Port Adelaide the margin falls from 16.8 to 11.1. And in Ramsay the margin falls from 18.9 to 15.5.

And in the final distribution of preferences all 3 seats have flipped back to being Labor vs Liberal counts.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

SA Best Preference flow:
note, SA Best did not run candidates in
Adelaide, Black, Bragg, Flinders, Florey, Frome, Kaurna, Light, Stuart, Torrens and West Torrens

Seat	Liberal	Labor
Badcoe	50.2	49.8
Chaffey	---	---
Cheltenham	55.3	44.7
Colton	56.6	43.4
Croydon	42.5	57.5
Davenport	54.9	45.1
Dunstan	49.4	50.6
Elder	50.9	49.1
Elizabeth	---	---
Enfield	47.8	52.2
Finniss	---	---
Gibson	46.3	53.7
Giles	---	---
Hammond	---	---
Hartley	51.4	48.6
Heysen	---	---
Hurtle Vale	49.7	50.3
Kavel	---	---
King	46.0	54.0
Lee	52.9	47.1
MacKillop	---	---
Mawson	53.1	46.9
Morialta	49.0	51.0
Morphett	---	---
Mount Gambier	41.3	---	58.7
Narungga	---	---
Newland	53.1	46.9
Playford	43.9	56.1
Port Adelaide	---	---
Ramsay	---	---
Reynell	47.7	52.3
Schubert	53.7	46.3
Taylor	---	---
Unley	47.2	52.3
Waite	45.2	54.8
Wright	53.6	46.4
State Average	49.6	47.8	2.6

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hartley Count 5

Vincent Tarzia - 43.7
Grace Portolesi - 29.0
Nick Xenophon - 27.3

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Adelaide

Rachel Sanderson	47.2	48.2	51.0
Jo Chapley	35.8	36.7	49.0
Robert Simms	12.6	15.2
Betty-Jean Price	4.4

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Badcoe

Jayne Stinson	38.7	39.1	39.8	40.0	46.2	55.5
Lachlan Clyne	32.0	32.1	32.5	34.2	35.1	44.5
Kate Bickford	15.2	15.7	16.2	16.6	18.7
Stef Rozitis	7.9	8.3	8.8	9.2
Robyn Munro	2.5	2.6	2.8
John Woodward	1.9	2.1
Lily Durkin	1.8

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Black

David Speirs	50.6	51.0	52.8	55.1	58.7
Randall Wilson	31.7	32.1	32.5	34.3	41.3
Dami Barnes	6.9	7.8	8.0	10.6
Rob de Jonge	5.7	6.1	6.7
Lionel Zschech	2.8	3.0
Anastasia Svetlichny	2.3

[Lachi]

Hartley Count 5

Vincent Tarzia - 43.7
Grace Portolesi - 29.0
Nick Xenophon - 27.3

Ouch

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hartley Count 5

Vincent Tarzia - 43.7
Grace Portolesi - 29.0
Nick Xenophon - 27.3

Ouch

Touche

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Bragg

Vickie Chapman	63.1	64.6	67.4
Rick Sarre	23.9	24.7	32.6
Neil Zwaans	9.0	10.7
Taylah Neagle	4.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Chaffey

Tim Whetstone	46.1	46.3	46.6	51.0	58.6
Michelle Campbell	24.9	25.4	25.8	27.5	41.4
Sim Singh-Malhi	19.3	19.4	20.3	21.5
Trevor Scott	6.6	6.8	7.3
Philip Pointer	2.0	2.1
Richard Challis	1.1

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Cheltenham

Jay Weatherill	52.4	52.6	53.1	57.8	65.9
Penny Pratt	22.3	22.6	23.1	24.2	34.1
John Anthony Noonan	15.1	15.4	16.3	17.9
Steffi Medrow	6.3	6.6	7.5
Madeline McCaul	2.4	2.8
Vincent Scali	1.5

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Colton

Matt Cowdrey	47.6	47.8	48.7	57.9
Angela Vaughan	31.5	31.7	35.1	42.1
Jassmine Wood	14.1	14.4	16.2
Paul Petherick	5.7	6.1
Ted Evans	1.1

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Croydon

Peter Malinauskas	58.0	58.2	58.4	58.7	58.9	60.1	66.4	74.4
Daria Hextell	15.7	15.8	16.1	16.2	17.2	18.7	19.8	25.6
Julia Karpathakis	10.5	10.6	10.7	11.1	11.5	12.0	13.8
Nathan Lange	7.0	7.1	7.2	7.7	7.8	9.2
Millie Hammerstein	4.0	4.0	4.1	4.3	4.6
Rachael Runner	1.8	1.9	2.0	2.1
Lucy McGinley	1.2	1.2	1.4
Michael Lesiw	0.9	1.1
Gabor Gesti	0.9

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Davenport

Steve Murray	42.1	43.6	44.9	58.8
Jonette Thorsteinsen	23.9	25.1	29.8	41.2
Karen Hockley	20.8	22.6	25.4
John Photakis	7.2	8.7
Dan Golding	6.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Dunstan

Steven Marshall	47.0	47.3	48.3	56.1
Matt Loader	29.1	29.7	35.9	43.9
Jack Noonan	13.0	13.7	15.7
Harriet De Kok	8.4	9.2
Ben Wilson	2.5

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Elder

Carolyn Habib	42.3	42.6	44.7	45.9	54.4
Annabel Digance	31.7	32.0	32.2	37.5	45.6
Michael Slattery	14.0	14.5	15.0	16.7
Jody Moate	7.2	7.9	8.1
Shawn Van Groesen	2.9	3.0
Nick Schumi	1.9

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Elizabeth

Lee Odenwalder	51.0	52.0	56.0	63.9
Phil Gallasch	18.8	19.9	22.2	36.1
Sharka Byrne	17.6	20.5	21.7
Wendy Morgan	6.8	7.6
John Mathiesen	5.8

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Enfield

John Rau	40.9	41.2	41.5	46.0	57.9
Deepa Mathew	26.6	26.9	29.0	31.2	42.1
Carol Martin	18.5	19.2	19.8	22.8
Cassie Alvey	8.3	9.0	9.7
Steve Edmonds	3.3	3.7
Emma Cresdee	2.4

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Finiss

David Basham	43.6	47.5	48.8	54.8
Joe Hill	25.8	26.9	29.5	45.2
Russell Skinner	17.1	17.4	21.7
Marc Mullette	7.8	8.3
Bruce Hicks	5.7

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Flinders

Peter Treloar	68.2	72.4	76.3
Julie Watson	18.1	19.2	23.7
Ian Dudley	7.2	8.4
Tony Parker	6.5