South Australian state election - 17th March 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Waite

Named for Peter Waite, noted for his substantial philanthropy, the seat of Waite was named Mitcham before 1993, known for being the only single-member district to be won by the Democrats, by its most notable member Robin Millhouse and his short-lived successor Heather Southcott. Robin Millhouse was the first representative of the Liberal Country League's urban middle class faction to be elected to Parliament. the seat has been drastically redrawn losing a majority of it's territory to Elder, and taking a majority of Davenport. The contest is complicated by the incumbent Martin Hamilton-Smith, former Opposition leader, recontesting as an independent and the strong Xenophon performance.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Elder

Named for Thomas Elder, who is most notable for introducing camels to Australia, the seat of Elder, known as Walsh before 1993, Ascot Park before 1985, Edwardstown before 1970 and Goodwood before 1956, in that time the seat has (as usual except 1938 because Independents) only once elected a non-Labor member, as usual in the 1993 Liberal landslide. The seat has been substantially redrawn, losing a majority of its current territory to Morphett, Badcoe and Gibson in exchange for a majority of Waite. This has overturned a Labor margin of 1.8 into a Liberal margin of 4.3. Despite this, as usual, do not underestimate Labor here, winning the unwindable is what they do best.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Gibson

Named for Gladys Ruth Gibson, a prominent educator and women's activist, the seat of Gibson is an entirely new seat, taking the northern parts of the abolished Bright and Mitchell, the western suburbs of the substantially changed Elder and small southern portions of Morphett. The seat is totally new, with a marginal notional Liberal margin of 3.2, with the sitting member of Mitchell contesting Gibson, and definitely has the advantage as the incumbent, though SA Best performs well here and has a strong candidate, a former member.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Black

Named for one of Australia's most prominent modernist artists Dorrit Black, the seat of Black is a new seat, taking the southern parts of the abolished Bright and Mitchell. The new seat has a marginal notional Liberal margin of 2.3. The sitting member of Bright is contesting Black, and has the advantage of incumbency and when coupled with no Xenophon candidate he is definitely favoured for re-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Davenport

Named for Samuel Davenport, an early settler of the area and parliamentarian the seat of Davenport has one of the longest Liberal traditions in the state, electing a Liberal every time except in 1985 when conservative Stacey Evans won as a Independent Liberal after a dirty pre-selection. The redistribution has dramatically shifted Davenport, losing a majority of the current seat to Waite and in return taking most of the abolished Fisher, however Fisher's successor is officially Hurtle Vale. The seat is one of Xenophon's best, however the Liberals are strong here and definitely have the advantage.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hurtle Vale

Named for James Hurtle Fisher a prominent colonial politician, who was the first resident Commissioner of South Australia, first Mayor of Adelaide and first President of the fully elected Legislative Council, the seat is a new seat, theoretically the successor of Fisher. The seat is the only seat to theoretically flip from Liberal to Labor in the redistribution, however Labor won the Fisher by-election after the death of the sitting independent member Bob Such. The seat is centred on the quadripoint where Fisher, Mawson, Mitchell and Reynell met, and takes territory from all four of them. The seat is notionally Labor with a notional margin of 1.7, however the area has a Liberal tradition.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Reynell

Named for John Reynell, a prominent South Australian horticulturalist and winemaker, the seat of Reynell has been slightly reorientated by the redistribution, however the margin stays much the same. The seat is a safe Labor seat, having been always represented by Labor members bar the 1993 blip, and should stay that way.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Kaurna

Named for the Kaurna people, the traditional owners of the Gulf St Vincent coast, the seat of Kaurna, known as Baudin before 1993, has been strengthened for Labor with the removal of strong Liberal rural vineyards in the south in exchange for stronger Labor territory to the south of Noarlunga. This has strengthened the already traditionally Labor seat, which broke from the fold only in the 1993 landslide. This seat is safe enough for Labor

[AustralianSwingVoter]

YES! It's done!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

1.6% in and although it's early it looks like it's going to be roughly in line with the polls.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

SA Best is ahead in Heysen, however by not that much, which doesn't bode well.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Troy Bell's looking good in Mount Gambier

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor's going very well in Waite, they shouldn't win it but they'll make it far closer than it's ever been.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In the five notionally flipped seats:
LAB->LIB
Colton - It depends on which booths are in, the numbers are currently very conflicting.
Elder - Nothing in yet.
Mawson - Who knows yet?
Newland - Looking Liberal

LIB->LAB
Hurtle Vale - Labor's looking good here, there's currently a swing to them.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Looks like Frances Bedford's going to hold on in Florey, she's running as an Independent due to a giant pre-selection storm, however she'll almost certainly rejoin Labor upon re-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

9.9% in and the key trend is Xenophon is definitely underperforming, they're currently at 14%

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Not much in from Hartley but it doesn't look at all good for Nick

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Yes, SA-BEST aren't doing their BEST, are they?

From the little amount of booth-matching I've done, the Liberals are doing well in Colton, as for Hurtle Vale, as much of that was in Reynell/Mawson/Mitchell, it's no surprise Labor's doing well there, wait for that big Woodcroft booth though.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

SA Best have Heysen but I can't see them winning anything else.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Yes, SA-BEST aren't doing their BEST, are they?

From the little amount of booth-matching I've done, the Liberals are doing well in Colton, as for Hurtle Vale, as much of that was in Reynell/Mawson/Mitchell, it's no surprise Labor's doing well there, wait for that big Woodcroft booth though.

SA Best is doing Democrats level well, and really a third party winning a seat at all is good. They're getting 14% in the House and 18.5% in the council.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Colton's looking good for the Liberals.

[Lachi]

Ouch, those numbers in Hartley must be hurting hugely in SAB.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Still nothing from Elder, Gibson or Black...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Ouch, those numbers in Hartley must be hurting hugely in SAB.

Yeah, Xenophon's almost certainly lost.

[Lachi]

Why the  is SAB taking from Labor in a lot of seats, it seems off.