Why Is Delaware Blue?

[Free Bird]

It's always confused me. It has the makings of just a Lean D state that would flip with about the same amount of pressure as maybe Minnesota, or maybe even a swing state, but it's solidly blue. Why? What could the GOP do to win it?

[Dr. Arch]

It's always confused me. It has the makings of just a Lean D state that would flip with about the same amount of pressure as maybe Minnesota, or maybe even a swing state, but it's solidly blue. Why? What could the GOP do to win it?

The same they could do to win other states, moderate.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If both parties move to the left, I could see Delaware becoming purple.

[Free Bird]

If both parties move to the left, I could see Delaware becoming purple.

So it's one of those "moderate Democrat" states like Florida or Pennsylvania?

[Tintrlvr]

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If both parties move to the left, I could see Delaware becoming purple.

So it's one of those "moderate Democrat" states like Florida or Pennsylvania?

I am not sure if either of those comparisons work, but delaware seems to produce a lot of dems who are somewhat moderate and i believe the corporate taxes there are quite low.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.

Actually, Trump would have won Ohio if the electorate was 21% black. The electorate is already 14% black.

Also, Mike Castle is an example of a Republican that won statewide in Delaware many times... until he lost the primary to the witch.

[Tintrlvr]

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.

Actually, Trump would have won Ohio if the electorate was 21% black. The electorate is already 14% black.

Also, Mike Castle is an example of a Republican that won statewide in Delaware many times... until he lost the primary to the witch.

Ohio is only 12% black, and I guarantee you the electorate is closer to 11% black (under-18s are disproportionately black, around 18%, and it's pretty obvious from precinct results that black turnout is slightly lower than white turnout, other than in 2008-2012). Don't care what an exit poll says; they're largely bullsh**t reverse-engineered to match the final results such that the crosstabs are totally valueless.

[courts]

both demographics and elements of interest groups like finance and pharma that have trended more democratic lately. it would be weird if it was republican now

[Landslide Lyndon]

Delaware almost always voted for the winner until 2000. After that it drifted to the left, for the same reason other Northeastern states did: Republican party's increased Southernization which had nothing to do with the brand of moderate Republicanism exercised by people like the DuPonts.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.

Actually, Trump would have won Ohio if the electorate was 21% black. The electorate is already 14% black.

Also, Mike Castle is an example of a Republican that won statewide in Delaware many times... until he lost the primary to the witch.

Ohio is only 12% black, and I guarantee you the electorate is closer to 11% black (under-18s are disproportionately black, around 18%, and it's pretty obvious from precinct results that black turnout is slightly lower than white turnout, other than in 2008-2012). Don't care what an exit poll says; they're largely bullsh**t reverse-engineered to match the final results such that the crosstabs are totally valueless.

Ah, that makes sense.

However, my point still stands that you can still win a heavily miniority state. Larry Hogan won Maryland by just getting massively high margins among white people (and lower black turnout because of miniorities). Obviously that's an extreme example, but Delaware is a lot less black than Maryland, and moderate Republican Mike Castle was able to easily win Delaware a bunch of times.

[Ye We Can]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

[Beet]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Delaware is a tiny state with an outsized influence from an urban center (Wilmington/Philly). Downstate Delaware is just as rural as any other area (and actually was a Tea Party hotbed at the beginning of this decade) but its influence gets swamped because 1/3 of the state is basically a Philly suburb.

If Delaware extended all the way down the DelMarVa I'd bet it'd be a lean-R state.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Firm control over New Castle County. You can lose all other (two) counties and still held the state.

[Ye We Can]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

Take a hike. I didn't say it was a bad thing, pal.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.

Came in here to say this! And it’s so small that that 21% matters a lot especially when you have enough whites voting D along with them.

Like someone else mentioned that will be Georgia soon.

[Beet]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

Take a hike. I didn't say it was a bad thing, pal.

You're a Republican. Every time you get frustrated at your party not winning, you blame blacks.

[Ye We Can]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

Take a hike. I didn't say it was a bad thing, pal.

You're a Republican. Every time you get frustrated at your party not winning, you blame blacks.
[/quote

1. Where was I frustrated in that post

2. Black people obviously favor Democrats, and the growth of that demographic in that state is why it has become a Safe D state. I'm pointing out demographic change in a thread literally asking why Delaware is solid blue today.

Like I said, take a hike.

[Beet]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

Take a hike. I didn't say it was a bad thing, pal.

You're a Republican. Every time you get frustrated at your party not winning, you blame blacks.
[/quote

1. Where was I frustrated in that post

2. Black people obviously favor Democrats, and the growth of that demographic in that state is why it has become a Safe D state. I'm pointing out demographic change in a thread literally asking why Delaware is solid blue today.

Like I said, take a hike.

So you don't get upset when your side loses?

Louisiana is even more blackity black black black than Delaware. By Atlas standards it should be titanium D.

[Ye We Can]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

Take a hike. I didn't say it was a bad thing, pal.

You're a Republican. Every time you get frustrated at your party not winning, you blame blacks.
[/quote

1. Where was I frustrated in that post

2. Black people obviously favor Democrats, and the growth of that demographic in that state is why it has become a Safe D state. I'm pointing out demographic change in a thread literally asking why Delaware is solid blue today.

Like I said, take a hike.

So you don't get upset when your side loses?

Louisiana is even more blackity black black black than Delaware. By Atlas standards it should be titanium D.

Y'know like 3 other people have pointed out demographics in this thread before me, why aren't you getting pissed at them?

[Beet]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

Take a hike. I didn't say it was a bad thing, pal.

You're a Republican. Every time you get frustrated at your party not winning, you blame blacks.
[/quote

1. Where was I frustrated in that post

2. Black people obviously favor Democrats, and the growth of that demographic in that state is why it has become a Safe D state. I'm pointing out demographic change in a thread literally asking why Delaware is solid blue today.

Like I said, take a hike.

So you don't get upset when your side loses?

Louisiana is even more blackity black black black than Delaware. By Atlas standards it should be titanium D.

Y'know like 3 other people have pointed out demographics in this thread before me, why aren't you getting pissed at them?

Because they are correctly framing it as one reason of many factors whereas you just said black voters "control" the state. But I'm not a huge fan of their analysis either.

[Ye We Can]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

Take a hike. I didn't say it was a bad thing, pal.

You're a Republican. Every time you get frustrated at your party not winning, you blame blacks.
[/quote

1. Where was I frustrated in that post

2. Black people obviously favor Democrats, and the growth of that demographic in that state is why it has become a Safe D state. I'm pointing out demographic change in a thread literally asking why Delaware is solid blue today.

Like I said, take a hike.

So you don't get upset when your side loses?

Louisiana is even more blackity black black black than Delaware. By Atlas standards it should be titanium D.

Y'know like 3 other people have pointed out demographics in this thread before me, why aren't you getting pissed at them?

Because they are correctly framing it as one reason of many factors whereas you just said black voters "control" the state. But I'm not a huge fan of their analysis either.

Well yes, if they weren't there the state would vote Republican. So figuratively the voting bloc controls the state.  Ya know, like how Whites control MS cause they all vote R, or plenty of other states.

I am not insinuating this is a bad thing, or at all that Delaware is a bad state because Black people are bad or something.  Stop assuming things.

[Beet]

Black voters got to the point where their block controlled the state.

See Georgia in a few years.

Well you sure know who to blame for your problems.

Take a hike. I didn't say it was a bad thing, pal.

You're a Republican. Every time you get frustrated at your party not winning, you blame blacks.
[/quote

1. Where was I frustrated in that post

2. Black people obviously favor Democrats, and the growth of that demographic in that state is why it has become a Safe D state. I'm pointing out demographic change in a thread literally asking why Delaware is solid blue today.

Like I said, take a hike.

So you don't get upset when your side loses?

Louisiana is even more blackity black black black than Delaware. By Atlas standards it should be titanium D.

Y'know like 3 other people have pointed out demographics in this thread before me, why aren't you getting pissed at them?

Because they are correctly framing it as one reason of many factors whereas you just said black voters "control" the state. But I'm not a huge fan of their analysis either.

Well yes, if they weren't there the state would vote Republican. So figuratively the voting bloc controls the state.  Ya know, like how Whites control MS cause they all vote R, or plenty of other states.

I am not insinuating this is a bad thing, or at all that Delaware is a bad state because Black people are bad or something.  Stop assuming things.

White voters in Mississippi are a majority. Black voters in Delaware are not. They rely on white voters, so no, they don't control the state. They can't do anything they want with the state. That's what control means.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Strangely, Democrats only have a one-seat majority in the State Senate now.