European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[EPG]

Besides Macron’s and Varoufakis’s possible groups, are there any other possible new groups?

There will inevitably be restructurings as the UK Tories and Ukip Brexit from two of the right-wing factions. I would be stunned if YV wins enough seats. As for Macron, problem is he is way outnumbered by ALDE MEPs who are too Euro-sceptic for him, anyone from FF and Kesk in the squishy centre to SaS on the dark-steel right. If you're NEOS, why quit them to join a smaller group?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/looking-alliances-redefine-european-political-landscape/


After reading that text I have impression that ECR is considered by NVA as already non-existing. I guess PiS will have big trouble after next EP elections.

[Ethelberth]

This table of independent polticians in EP today. Some of them have political parties for one politician (eg. Paavo Vayrynen in Finland, M15 in Romania).

   

EPP   SOC   ECR   ALDE   GRN   GUE   EFD   ENF   NON    BE                               BU      1                         CS            2                   DK                           1    DE                  1             EE               1                IR      1   1   1      1             GR                  1             ES   1         3                   FR   3            1      1          HR   1      1                      IT               1   1      1   1    CY                               LV                               LT   1         1                   LU                               HU                           1    MT                               NL                               PL      1   3                  2    PT   1                            RO   1   1   2   2                   SI                               SK   1                            FI            1                   SE                               UK   2                     1   2       11   4   7   10   3   4   1   2   7   49

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Maybe more Eurosceptic organisations could be pinched from EPP and even ALDE to form a new replacement ECR: Fidesz being the obvious one.

[DavidB.]

Maybe more Eurosceptic organisations could be pinched from EPP and even ALDE to form a new replacement ECR: Fidesz being the obvious one.

Don't think any EPP/ALDE parties would join any group in which Fidesz would take part. It's more likely that PiS just take over ECR and have Fidesz join. But Fidesz will only leave EPP if they are kicked out.

I think a merger between EFD and ECR should be an option too. What's the point of having two groups that, without UKIP and the Tories, essentially want the same thing?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Maybe more Eurosceptic organisations could be pinched from EPP and even ALDE to form a new replacement ECR: Fidesz being the obvious one.

Don't think any EPP/ALDE parties would join any group in which Fidesz would take part. It's more likely that PiS just take over ECR and have Fidesz join. But Fidesz will only leave EPP if they are kicked out.

I think a merger between EFD and ECR should be an option too. What's the point of having two groups that, without UKIP and the Tories, essentially want the same thing?

PiS obviously is thinking about second term and I guess they can't always live on conflict with Brussels so they need to have some sort of possibility to maneuver. ECR is maybe not loved by EPP and S&D but still is considered as a civilized group due to Tories and ODS. Making fusion with faction associated with UKiP and fu**ing Korwin is not really beneficial for PiS in that case. They need to have someone on their right to looks more acceptable and more plausible as a partner to possible future ALDE-EPP-S&D commission and parliament.

[Ethelberth]

There was long interview of a certain Finnish politician, who said that are no reason to have right-of-EPP forces in four different groups. The biggest problem for uniting all of them to one group, is naturally Putin.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

One of the things that isn't discussed enough is that Euroscepticism has fundamentally changed character in recent years, to the extent the name is sort of an artifact. Most all of the big parties, as they have prepared for governance, have shed ideas of leaving the EU or even the eurozone. Indeed, a lot of the rhetoric of European values needing to be saved could easily be appropriated into the demands of Eurofederalism (which would be a pretty surreal sight).

[EPG]

Well, they are terrified of Brexit of course, but check the De Wever link up there. Cameron-type cheap talk against Europeans is alive and well in bloody Belgium of all places. That's what leads to these problems, when the political establishment is happy to cede its prerogatives in the name of cheap talk.

[DavidB.]

One of the things that isn't discussed enough is that Euroscepticism has fundamentally changed character in recent years, to the extent the name is sort of an artifact. Most all of the big parties, as they have prepared for governance, have shed ideas of leaving the EU or even the eurozone.

Which formerly Euroskeptic big parties that have a serious shot at entering the government anytime soon have changed their positions on the EU and the eurozone in a more pro-EU way? Only French FN comes to mind (wouldn't say they have a serious shot at entering the government, but for the sake of argument), and perhaps Danish DF have moderated along the way. The FPÖ aren't as tough in government as they said they would be, but that's par for the course when RRWPs enter governments and nothing new.

Indeed, a lot of the rhetoric of European values needing to be saved could easily be appropriated into the demands of Eurofederalism (which would be a pretty surreal sight).

Don't see this happen anytime soon. Immigration is the main issue to most euroskeptic parties on the right (and to their voters). Schengen and the EU looked incredibly bad during the 2015 mass immigration crisis. The fear of EU-enforced immigrant quota will also forever scare voters away from eurofederalism.

I guess the boundary between euroskepticism and eurofederalism is more fluid on the left, though, as eurofederalism is usually not rejected by left-wing parties based on the principle of sovereignty but because the current EU is deemed unredeemably capitalist.

PiS obviously is thinking about second term and I guess they can't always live on conflict with Brussels so they need to have some sort of possibility to maneuver. ECR is maybe not loved by EPP and S&D but still is considered as a civilized group due to Tories and ODS. Making fusion with faction associated with UKiP and fu**ing Korwin is not really beneficial for PiS in that case. They need to have someone on their right to looks more acceptable and more plausible as a partner to possible future ALDE-EPP-S&D commission and parliament.

UKIP will be gone, Korwin might be out. The only EFDD parties that might/will get in are a) Italian M5S, b) Lithuanian Order and Justice, and c) Swedish SD. That's it. All the others are indies and/or will be out (Czech Svobodni). AfD will be in ENF.

None of the EFDD parties that get to remain in sound too unacceptable to just move to ECR. PiS currently already cooperate in ECR with the Finns Party (currently more radical than Swedish SD), the Latvian National Alliance (most right-wing option on the menu in Latvia and seem quite far to the right to me), and the Danish People's Party (relatively moderate but still an RRWP). It could be bad to be associated with M5S if they screw up in government, but Order and Justice (very similar profile to the Latvian National Alliance) and SD seem fine.

[TheSaint250]

Is it pretty certain that AfD will move into ENF? It would make sense if they did, as I see them as possibly being the more hardcore of the RWPP (temporary halting of all immigration).

[Steffers]

"There was long interview of a certain Finnish politician, who said that are no reason to have right-of-EPP forces in four different groups. The biggest problem for uniting all of them to one group, is naturally Putin."

Which one, Halla-aho? Can you link it?

[Former President tack50]

Since we are talking about euroskepticism, here are 2 polls from Pew Research about EU favorability depending on age and on political views:

[Ethelberth]

"There was long interview of a certain Finnish politician, who said that are no reason to have right-of-EPP forces in four different groups. The biggest problem for uniting all of them to one group, is naturally Putin."

Which one, Halla-aho? Can you link it?

Leader of the Finns Party (I shall not write his name). It was an radio podcast dedicated to Europian matters in YLE this week.

https://areena.yle.fi/1-4406221

[DavidB.]

Leader of the Finns Party (I shall not write his name).

Is this the Finnish "Drumpf" thing? He Who Must Not Be Named was cool in Harry Potter when I was 12, but you'd hope people could discuss politics without this sort of thing.

Is it pretty certain that AfD will move into ENF? It would make sense if they did, as I see them as possibly being the more hardcore of the RWPP (temporary halting of all immigration).

It seems pretty certain, yes.

I would agree that AfD are probably be the most hardcore of the RRWPs in ENF (though there are more radical ones outside ENF), perhaps together with the FPÖ. However, it depends on your definition: when it comes to Islam alone, the PVV seem to be the most radical ones (mosque ban, "banning Islam as much as possible"), but they are also much more "civic nationalist" and inclusive towards non-Muslims with a foreign background than AfD.

[Ethelberth]

The conventional acronym for the afore-written person is simply "Sensei" among his followers.
That can be used rather neutrally.

[Helsinkian]

"There was long interview of a certain Finnish politician, who said that are no reason to have right-of-EPP forces in four different groups. The biggest problem for uniting all of them to one group, is naturally Putin."

Which one, Halla-aho? Can you link it?

Leader of the Finns Party (I shall not write his name). It was an radio podcast dedicated to Europian matters in YLE this week.

https://areena.yle.fi/1-4406221

Amusingly, even YLE manages to misspell his name. It's Halla-aho, not Halla-Aho.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

People in the know, how united will the French centre be? Obviously you have En Marche, but you also have Bayrou's MoDem, the newly integrated Radical Movement (did anybody notice earlier this year that the PS annexe PRG has dissolved itself to rejoin the radicals? I sure didn't...), the UDI and I'm sure I'm missing a few. Will they all be on the same list?

[Ethelberth]

For starters
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2019_(France)

The Left Radicals joined Radicals, however their MEP formed an small party for her self: Radicals of LEFT). Basically border-line independent.

[Tirnam]

Internal poll released by EELV

1- No alliance between EELV and Generation.s

LREM: 32%
FN: 14%
LR: 12%
FI: 9%
EELV: 9%
Génération.s: 7%
PS: 6%
DLF: 6%

2- Alliance between EELV and Generation.s

LREM: 33%
EELV/Génération.s: 13%
FN: 12%
LR: 11%
FI: 11%
PS: 7%
DLF: 6%

Harris Interactive poll (more realistic probably...)

LREM: 28%
FN: 15%
LR: 13%
FI: 12%
PS: 8%
DLF: 7%
EELV: 4%
Génération.s: 2%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Hamon few days ago was in Warsaw, cooperation between Varoufakis team continue to grow.

[Umengus]

Elabe poll - France

Lrem-Modem: 24
FN : 19,5
LR: 15
FI: 10
EELV: 8
PS: 6
DLF: 5,5
UDI: 2
Generations: 1,5

For now, it's very difficult to estimate the turnout so there are big differences between the pollsters.

[TheSaint250]

It’s pretty interesting how well FN is doing. It seemed that 2014 and MLP’s second-round result would be its peak. Also, I would’ve expected DLF’s growth would put FN in third place.

[Tender Branson]

I don't think we'll get an EU election poll here until the start of 2019, when parties are taking this thing seriously and start presenting their lists.

I'd still think that the ÖVP will easily win the election, the SPÖ might be stable, the FPÖ is hard to predict (could gain a bit or drop a bit), the Greens will collapse by half, LiPi will gain from them and NEOS will also gain slightly.

Maybe Othmar Karas (a prominent, liberal, very pro-EU MEP for the ÖVP) will run his own list, because in recent months he repeatedly attacked Chancellor Kurz on immigration/asylum and especially FPÖ-leader and Vice-Chancellor Strache for his anti-EU talk.

[Diouf]

Commitee to draft ALDE manifesto for the elections 2019. A manifesto that is not likely to play any real role in the campaign in member states. Roivas is the chair, and is a potential lead candidate for ALDE, I would guess. Interesting to see former Danish PM and NATO leader Anders Fogh Rasmussen as well.