European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[TheSaint250]

Article from politico.eu about the populists for the election next year: https://www.politico.eu/article/populist-plan-for-2019-election-puts-eu-in-cross-hairs/

Most interesting to me are:

1. Fidesz is in talks with ENF.

2. AfD is seeking to establish a new group with the FPÖ separate from the French National Rally, who AfD refers to as racist and anti-Semitic (I didn’t see that coming from AfD).

[Steffers]

Commitee to draft ALDE manifesto for the elections 2019. A manifesto that is not likely to play any real role in the campaign in member states. Roivas is the chair, and is a potential lead candidate for ALDE, I would guess. Interesting to see former Danish PM and NATO leader Anders Fogh Rasmussen as well.

Figures that Centre would put Berner on this task. She's perfectly in line with ALDE in general, but not particularly in line with her own party (even though she's a cabinet member); shows quite well both the problematic position of Centre in ALDE and its usual tactic for dealing with this, ie. shuttling particularly liberal members to Europe.

Wouldn't be surprised if Berner made the switch to EP in 2019...

[DavidB.]

2. AfD is seeking to establish a new group with the FPÖ separate from the French National Rally, who AfD refers to as racist and anti-Semitic (I didn’t see that coming from AfD).

Probably something else going on; most likely a power struggle, given that AfD might become bigger than FN and FN might not be willing to lose control over the group. Accusing the other faction of racism is often not something sincere in these circles. Just look at Frauke Petry. Oh, and it probably matters that it is Jörg Meuthen saying this, who is very much part of the more moderate wing in AfD.

Since Geert Wilders has a close working relationship with Marine Le Pen and is probably less enamored with Gauland's historical revisionism (which is more toxic in the Netherlands than FN's stuff in the first place), I would say the PVV are likely to support (and perhaps follow) FN and not AfD in this. I suppose it would be the other way around for the FPÖ, though their ties with AfD can also become a burden as the FPÖ seek to become normalized and AfD go further and further off the deep end.

[SunSt0rm]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

[Ethelberth]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

They have to outlaw PO first.

[Former President tack50]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

They have to outlaw PO first.

Well, if both the Catalan secessionist PDECat and the fervently Spanish unionist UPyD and Cs can be both in ALDE, I guess PO and PiS can also be in the same group

Though I guess for Poland it would make more sense if PO moved to ALDE if PiS moves to EPP?

[TheSaint250]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

The weirdness continues

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

They’ve wanted to do this for a long time, they can see how being chummy with the EPP has helped Fidesz. But that ship has probably sailed now.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

They have to outlaw PO first.

Well, if both the Catalan secessionist PDECat and the fervently Spanish unionist UPyD and Cs can be both in ALDE, I guess PO and PiS can also be in the same group

Though I guess for Poland it would make more sense if PO moved to ALDE if PiS moves to EPP?

Maybe from the arithmetic sense and representation in various factions yes. But I doubt that PO would resign from membership in EPP which mostly from all europarties can give them some posts in EU structures. ALDE can't grant them anything of relevance. And for PO narration about being important in Europe and being "serious partner" for European politicians is crucial in competition with PiS. And that narration require to keep PiS out of the relevant guys club - so out of the EPP.

[Diouf]

Helle for prezident?

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https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/thorning-schmidt-makes-brussels-appearance-promotes-conservative-social-democracy/

[EPG]

Helle for prezident?

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https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/thorning-schmidt-makes-brussels-appearance-promotes-conservative-social-democracy/

Looks more like either
(a) an attempt to undermine the Vestager-Macron Eurofederalist campaign or
(b) an attempt to support the anti-foreigner forces at home in her party.

[Former President tack50]

Well, we now have 2 more confirmed alliances in Spain although one of them is basically irrelevant.

The important one is that IU, Podemos and Equo will run in a joint coalition this time. Last time IU and Podemos ran separately and Equo ran as part of European Spring alonside Valencian nationalist Compromís.

This means we'll see a rerun of the Unidos Podemos coalition from the general election.

I don't know what Compromís will do though. They might join UP, or they might try to run without them. If they do run alone, their likely allies would probably be the same as last time: Coalición Caballas (Melilla) and Chunta Aragonesista (Aragon). Ideally they should also try to get New Canaries (Canary Islands), Més (Balearic Islands) and PRC (Cantabria) on board but those are less likely; none of them has ever run in an EU parliament election.


The irrelevant alliance is an alliance of far right parties: FE-Jons (literally Franco's party), DN, La Falange and AES. Yes, the Spanish far right has so many splitters it makes communists jealous with no less than 3 Falange parties XD. Adding them together they got 0.4% in the 2014 election. Which doesn't look like much but it would be a wonderful result for the Spanish far right.

Though in practice I guess many of those voters will go to Vox, which actually has a chance of doing something.

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1009134141458321408

I know this has been mentioned many times, but does anyone have more insight on this? The last thing I heard was that Fidesz's people were talking to ENF's people, but this seems to suggest a new group.

[augbell]

In France, very interesting election coming on the right of the political compass.

Republicans are lead by a euroskeptic (Laurent Wauquiez) and National Rally (former National Front) is slowing down. Meanwhile, a small party, Stand-up France, lead by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (NDA), mp for a suburban town near Paris, who attracted 4,7% of the vote in 2017 presidential election, is doing well in polls (6%), just above the limit to have MEPs.

Each party leader has already a seat: NDA and Le Pen are mp's, Wauquiez is president of Auvergne Rhône-Alpes region. So they won't lead their list.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1009134141458321408

I know this has been mentioned many times, but does anyone have more insight on this? The last thing I heard was that Fidesz's people were talking to ENF's people, but this seems to suggest a new group.

http://nepszava.hu/cikk/1162579-mar-bekulne-a-nepparttal-a-fidesz

[Diouf]

Social Liberals ditch Social Democrats in EU election

In Denmark, the Social Liberals and Social Democrats have been growing further apart, and now this is reflected in the electoral alliances for EP 2019 as well. In the last two EP elections, the Social Democrats, SPP and Social Liberals have formed an electoral alliance (so that their votes are combined for the first distribution of seats). However, the Social Liberals have decided to form an alliance with the Alternative instead. This basically guarantees that at least one of them wins a seat, and with a good performance both of them could win one. The Social Liberals in particular is hard to gauge before we know who their candidates will actually be, and whether current Competition Commissioner Magrethe Vestager, who is very popular, will run, whether as a candidate for the EP or/and spitzenkandidat for ALDE/Macronistas. The Alternative probably has the best candidate they could choose in Rasmus Nordquist, but the party needs to lift itself from its current slump (3.9% in polling average) and/or make a very succesful, innovative campaign (which they are much more likely to do than others).

The electoral alliances are almost in place. Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance will form one. Social Democrats and SPP will form one. Red-Green Alliance and People's Movement against the EU will form one. And Social Liberals and Alternative will form one. The DPP will probably run alone, but an alliance with the New Right could be an option. The New Right and Christian Democrats will likely only run if the general election is held before the EP election (very likely) and they manage to enter parliament (likely for New Right, unlikely for Christian Democrats).

[Former President tack50]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

If they aren't going to join ALDE, they need 4 more countries to join them. Who else would?

[TheSaint250]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

Do you have a link for that? I remember that was rumored, but I never saw anything saying progress was made.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

If they aren't going to join ALDE, they need 4 more countries to join them. Who else would?

With or without the rest of PD?

I guess they could probably grab the Eurofederalist parts of ALDE - D66, Verhofstadt and pals, Radikale Venstre (?), NEOS etc or perhaps extremely liberal members of S&D like Irish Labour could defect. Maybe an independent "En Marche" list could get some healthy votes  in Germany, what with turbulence in the CDU probably precipitating a shift rightwards?

[TheSaint250]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

If they aren't going to join ALDE, they need 4 more countries to join them. Who else would?

With or without the rest of PD?

I guess they could probably grab the Eurofederalist parts of ALDE - D66, Verhofstadt and pals, Radikale Venstre (?), NEOS etc or perhaps extremely liberal members of S&D like Irish Labour could defect. Maybe an independent "En Marche" list could get some healthy votes  in Germany, what with turbulence in the CDU probably precipitating a shift rightwards?

The Wikipedia page mentions Progressive Slovakia and Momentum Movement, both new parties, as being possible partners as well, though last I read the former of the two applied for ALDE membership.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

Do you have a link for that? I remember that was rumored, but I never saw anything saying progress was made.

The only link in English I could find was this one.

 http://www.turkeytelegraph.com/politics/rivera-macron-and-renzi-negotiate-a-common-platform-for-the-european-elections-h18754.html

This one is in Spanish but seems much better

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/06/25/actualidad/1529932425_945638.html

I guess they are working on it.

[TheSaint250]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

Do you have a link for that? I remember that was rumored, but I never saw anything saying progress was made.

The only link in English I could find was this one.

 http://www.turkeytelegraph.com/politics/rivera-macron-and-renzi-negotiate-a-common-platform-for-the-european-elections-h18754.html

This one is in Spanish but seems much better

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/06/25/actualidad/1529932425_945638.html

I guess they are working on it.

Thank you!

PD leaving S&D would really be something.

[Former President tack50]

If I had to guess the new ALDE-Macron split, my guess would be that ALDE proper gets the more euroskeptic elements and the Macron group gets the openly federalist parties for the most part. My guess of the parties already in ALDE would be:

ALDE

FDP (Germany) 3
FW (Germany) 1
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (Bulgaria) 4
ANO 2011 (Czech Republic) 2
Venestre (Denmark) 1
Centre party (Estonia) 1
Centre party (Finland) 3
UDI (France) 3
Fianna Fail (Ireland) 1
Union of Greens and Farmers (Latvia) 1
Labour Party (Lithuania) 2
VVD (Netherlands) 3
PDR (Portugal) 1
ALDE (Romania) 1
DeSUS (Slovenia) 1
PNV (Spain) 1
PDECat (Spain) 2
Centre Party (Sweden) 1

Total: Represented in 16 countries; 32 MEPs.

Macron Group

LREM (France): ?
Cs (Spain): 2
PD (Italy): 25

NEOS (Austria): 1
OpenVLD (Belgium): 3
MR (Belgium): 2
Civic-Liberal Alliance (Croatia): 1
Istrian Democratic Assembly (Croatia): 1
Radikale Venestre (Denmark): 2
Reform Party (Estonia) 2
Swedish People's Party (Finland): 1
MoDem (France): 2
Liberal Movement (Lithuania): 1
Democratic Party (Luxembourg): 1
D66 (Netherlands): 4
Liberals (Sweden): 2

Total: Represented in at least 13 countries, 50 MEPs as of now.

Of course there will be people from EPP and S&D defecting to either "Macron's group" or ALDE, and viceversa.

Seems like "Rump ALDE" might also have problems reaching the 25 MEP threshold.

[EPG]

Er... except FDP will probably get 8 next time, and PD won't get 25... I also doubt the Verhofstadt people will fall in behind Macron, certainly not Estonia's Reform, probably not D66.

[DavidB.]

I would think Swedish Center are more likely to join a Macron group than the Liberals.