European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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  European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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Author Topic: European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019  (Read 157289 times)
Former President tack50
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« Reply #200 on: July 17, 2018, 02:19:30 PM »

Projection from Instituto Cattaneo

http://www.cattaneo.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Analisi-Istituto-Cattaneo-Elezioni-europee-2019-Una-prima-simulazione-7-luglio-2018.pdf

EPP: 180 seats (25.5%; -6.5%)
S&D: 144 seats (20.4%; -4.5%)
ALDE: 72 seats (10.2%; +0.3%)
ECR: 49 seats (7%; -1%)
GUE-NGL: 45 seats (6.4%; -2.1%)
Greens-EFA: 33 seats (4.7%; -2.1%)
ENF: 51 seats (7.2%; +2.2%)
EFDD: 47 seats (6.7%; +3.2%)
NI: 6 seats (0.9%; -1.6%)
New parties: 78 seats (11.1%)

The percentages refer to % of seats in parliament, not to a hypothetical "EU popular vote"

Their analysis of the new parties claims that their political affiliations follow:

Left: 16 seats
Centre-Left: 0 seats
Centre: 32 seats
Centre-right: 2 seats
Right: 14 seats
"Other": 14 seats

They didn't do a country by country break up but they did do regional ones woth the shift in seats:

Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Malta)

EPP: -12
S&D: -18
ALDE: -1
EFDD: +5
ENF: +20
ECR: 0
G-EFA: -6
GUE-NGL: -7
NI: -6
Not present: +42

Continental Europe (Germany, France, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands)

EPP: -4
S&D: -9
ALDE: +5
EFDD: +14
ENF: -1
ECR: -7
Greens-EFA: -2
GUE-NGL: +3
NI: -2
Not present: +7

Northern Europe (Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Denmark)

EPP: +1
S&D: +1
ALDE: +5
ENF: 0
ECR: -5
Greens-EFA: -2
GUE-NGL: 0
NI: -4
Not present: +3

Central-Eastern Europe (Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia)

EPP: -22
S&D: +1
ALDE: -2
EFDD: -1
ENF: 0
ECR: +11
Greens-EFA: -3
GUE-NGL: -1
NI: -2
Not present: +26

IMO the regional breakdown is very off. There aren't even 6 Southern European G-EFA MEPs to begin with for example!
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EPG
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« Reply #201 on: July 18, 2018, 01:55:09 PM »

If LREM win 32 out of 78 French seats like they claim, I will eat a hat! They will win low twenties, won't they?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #202 on: July 18, 2018, 02:08:30 PM »

If LREM win 32 out of 78 French seats like they claim, I will eat a hat! They will win low twenties, won't they?

I guess there might be other "new centrist" parties? No idea who though
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« Reply #203 on: July 18, 2018, 05:34:22 PM »

If LREM win 32 out of 78 French seats like they claim, I will eat a hat! They will win low twenties, won't they?

Mid-to-low 20s seems like a correct guesstimate at this very early stage (no-one is paying attention except for us), although if a lot of parties hover just below the 5% threshold*, then perhaps they (and other parties) could get a higher seat count by virtue of there being so many wasted votes below the threshold. If FBM's approval continues its downwards slope, then they will probably dip into the low 20s.

* the last Ipsos poll, from early July, fwiw had EELV, Hamon's gang and the PS all at 4% each (and Agir-UDI at 3%).

If LREM win 32 out of 78 French seats like they claim, I will eat a hat! They will win low twenties, won't they?

I guess there might be other "new centrist" parties? No idea who though

In France? The MoDem isn't a real party and only exists as an irrelevant LREM satellite, for the time being; and all the polling so far is not very kind for UDI/Agir (unsurprisingly, as they are both cadre parties that nobody actually votes for in real life), which may prompt them to ally with LREM to save their asses (as always).
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #204 on: July 19, 2018, 07:15:14 AM »

How is ENF doing so well in Southern Europe? The only gains I can see from them are in Italy and Spain (since Vox is speculated to join it post-election). I would expect EFDD to be doing better, especially with M5S.

Or did M5S almost max out?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #205 on: July 19, 2018, 08:26:49 AM »

How is ENF doing so well in Southern Europe? The only gains I can see from them are in Italy and Spain (since Vox is speculated to join it post-election). I would expect EFDD to be doing better, especially with M5S.

Or did M5S almost max out?

M5S probably maxed out slightly though I expect them to get more than +5

And ENF in southern Europe is almost just Lega, which has increased a lot since 2014 (plus the 1 Vox MEP if they get in)
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« Reply #206 on: July 19, 2018, 11:09:52 AM »

The Italian electorate are volatile enough that I wouldn't bother saying anything at this stage more than "PD will fall from their ridiculously inflated Renzimania numbers".
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Mike88
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« Reply #207 on: July 19, 2018, 02:03:54 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2018, 02:12:19 PM by Mike88 »

CDS kicks off their election campaign for the EP elections:

CDS, member of EPP, has became the first Portuguese party to start their 2019 EP elections campaign. Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, and Nuno Melo, CDS main candidate for the EP elections, unveiled the first election poster of the party's campaign:

 
CDS poster for the EP elections.

Adding to the poster, Cristas and Melo unveiled a flyer with what the CDS defends, or not, for the EU: they are against European taxes, are open to migrants but they should respect European values, among others. Cristas also stated she wants to double the number of CDS MEP, they have just one, in next year's election.

The head candidates for the main parties, without counting CDS, still have to be chosen, but some are almost certain:

PSD-EPP: Paulo Rangel (most likely)
PS-PES: No one knows
BE-PEL/EACL: Marisa Matias (most likely)
CDU-EGP/PEL: João Ferreira (most likely)
CDS-EPP: Nuno Melo
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« Reply #208 on: July 25, 2018, 01:40:34 PM »
« Edited: July 25, 2018, 03:49:28 PM by Diouf »

Federalist blog projection based on current polls in member states: (compared to May, edit)

EPP: 177 (-1)
S&D: 145 (+8)
ALDE: 102 (-1)
LEFT: 57 (+2)
ENF: 56 (+10)
ECR: 50 (+7)
G/EFA: 38 (+1)
EFDD*: 22 (-1)
NI: 10 (-2)

Others: 48 (+4)

The parties are largely in the group, they currently belong to, but it does include the changes we already now. So Sweden Democrats to ECR, M5s in others as they have said they will not continue in EFDD (which will likely disband). Macron is in ALDE so far.

The seat distribution per country kan be seen at the bottom om the post: https://www.foederalist.eu/2018/07/europawahl-umfragen-juli-2018.html
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parochial boy
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« Reply #209 on: July 25, 2018, 02:09:36 PM »

The lefties gaining? Maybe that'll convince S&D to start acting more like an opposition and less like a rubber stamp
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Diouf
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« Reply #210 on: July 25, 2018, 02:32:45 PM »

The lefties gaining? Maybe that'll convince S&D to start acting more like an opposition and less like a rubber stamp

Mostly due to significant gains in France. France Insoumise is set for 11 seats according to this projection. Front de gauche won 3 seats in 2014 + 1 seat for Alliances des Outre-Mers.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #211 on: July 25, 2018, 02:44:58 PM »

Oh I get it, this is compared to polling in May, not the last elections. I was thinking there was no way S&D could gain given the self immolation of the PS and PD Smiley
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #212 on: July 26, 2018, 09:08:54 AM »

Any news about what M5S will be doing in terms of EU groups post-election?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #213 on: August 01, 2018, 01:52:49 AM »

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TheSaint250
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« Reply #214 on: August 01, 2018, 02:34:57 PM »



Has Jobbik even moderated that much to be considered? We always hear about the supposed effort but never really hear about the results.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #215 on: August 01, 2018, 02:58:32 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2018, 03:03:56 PM by Heat »



Has Jobbik even moderated that much to be considered? We always hear about the supposed effort but never really hear about the results.
To a degree, I guess. Vona and now Sneider have done their best to replace the neo-Nazism with non-ideological platitudes of the 'WHY Smiley CAN'T Smiley WE Smiley ALL Smiley JUST Smiley GET Smiley ALONG Smiley' variety, and some of the radical wing recently defected to start its own party. It feels unconvincing at times, but if it's an act they're very dedicated to it.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #216 on: August 02, 2018, 03:15:28 PM »


Okay, and I have a bridge to sell to you guys. Big spoiler: Jobbik in EPP isn't going to happen.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #217 on: August 03, 2018, 05:50:33 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2018, 06:03:45 AM by tack50 »

Seems like the Flanders N-VA might have a very interesting MEP next term. None other than former Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont himself!

Apparently he might be offered a spot on N-VA's list in the next election. From Puigdemont's point of view there are 2 main advantages: He gets to campaign for independence in the EU parliament itself and he also gains parliamentary inmunity so he can't be arrested (unclear if he can return to Spain though)

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20180802/nacionalistas-flamencos-estudian-ofrecer-puigdemont-listas-elecciones-europeas-6974068

https://m.hln.be/de-krant/wat-als-puigdemont-opkomt-voor-n-va~a9a0c074/
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #218 on: August 03, 2018, 05:51:12 AM »


Okay, and I have a bridge to sell to you guys. Big spoiler: Jobbik in EPP isn't going to happen.
Of course it won't, for many reasons. The interesting thing is that Jobbik are even talking about it.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #219 on: August 03, 2018, 08:18:03 AM »

Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #220 on: August 03, 2018, 08:32:37 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2018, 08:50:07 AM by DavidB. »

Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.
The Lega are in ENF and the N-VA are in ECR, so they're currently not in the same group in the first place. I think it's not unlikely the N-VA will be leaving ECR after the Tories are gone and PiS will take over the place: the group will be dominated by right-wing populists of a different, more nativist and anti-establishment type than the N-VA. I guess N-VA could join the EPP or ALDE, with EPP being more likely (but CD&V or MR/Open VLD would have to be okay with it, which is why it didn't happen last time; perhaps it's different now that they have been in a coalition for four years). But they could stay in ECR too.

I'm placing my bets on Dutch Forum voor Democratie, who are likely to win 2-3 seats, joining ECR. Their youth movement, JFVD, are already in the process of being associated with the European Young Conservatives, ECR's youth movement. After the UK Tories are gone, it's probably a right fit for FVD. Associating themselves with somewhat less controversial RRWPs like Finnish PS, Swedish SD and Danish DF seems like a good move. Dutch CU-SGP are already in ECR but I don't think the SGP would mind sitting with FVD; the CU representative might be less happy, however, and I don't know if they could veto it. Though FVD arguably fit much better in ECR than CU and will probably bring more seats with them.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #221 on: August 03, 2018, 08:40:09 AM »

Sensei has told in Finnish newspapers that right of EPP parties shall form a new alliance after next EP elections (in order to avoid the fragmentation). The problem is that EPP and SD are ready  to give influence for ECR group but have banned (EFDD and ENF)., two openly Putinist, groups from relevant posts in parliament.  So at least two groups are likely.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #222 on: August 03, 2018, 08:44:01 AM »

Sensei has told in Finnish newspapers that right of EPP parties shall form a new alliance after next EP elections (in order to avoid the fragmentation). The problem is that EPP and SD are ready  to give influence for ECR group but have banned (EFDD and ENF)., two openly Putinist, groups from relevant posts in parliament.  So at least two groups are likely.
I think this was discussed before. I would really like for a big-tent euroskeptical group to be formed, led by the big delegations of Lega, AfD, Fidesz, PiS and FN (or whatever the hell they call themselves these days), but I am skeptical: I believe it when I see it. The differences are rather big, and many ECR parties aren't going to associate themselves with parties like AfD or FN. In the end, I expect ECR and ENF to stick around and for EFD parties to pick either of these; Fidesz might join either of them, but I believe that when I see it too.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #223 on: August 03, 2018, 08:56:28 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2018, 09:49:17 AM by Southern Speaker The Saint »

Is the ECR group even likely to stay together? I could see it being rebranded depending on the results.

Also, FvD seems like it would be the kind of party to not associate with any of the mainstream groups. Baudet seems to be taking his own path, and meeting with Jared Taylor probably isn’t going to make any mainstream group actively seek him out.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #224 on: August 03, 2018, 09:06:34 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2018, 09:18:41 AM by DavidB. »

Is the ECR group even likely to stay together? I could see it being rebranded depending on the results.

Also, FvD seems like it would be the kind of party to not associate with any of the mainstream groups. Baudet seems to be taking his own path, and meeting with Jerry Taylor probably isn’t going to make any mainstream group actively seek him out.
Baudet knows he has to associate himself with a group: it's just the smart thing to do in terms of financial support and speaking time in the EP, and he likes the idea of European nationalist parties being connected in the first place. Some of his comments as well as his meeting with Jared Taylor might cause some ECR parties to have second thoughts about FVD joining, but on the other hand, it's not as Finnish PS leader Jussi Halla-aho has never made any deeply controversial comments, let alone some of the Eastern European parties in the group.

And FVD already approved their youth movement JFVD associating itself with EYC: a JFVD delegation took part in an EYC conference in Warsaw. This was absolutely approved by Baudet himself, as JFVD are not democratic and the chairman of JFVD is Baudet's political assistant in parliament. Which is a good thing, as there is a risk JFVD could turn into a second Blue Awakening (Estonian EKRE's youth movement that has gone alt-right, inviting Jared Taylor and Millennial Woes to a conference in Tallin and subsequently getting kicked out of EYC) or Swedish SD youth (ultimately kicked out of the party) if democratization were to happen, which could seriously damage the party's image.
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