European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[windjammer]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

[Zinneke]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

But to be honest you still have a lot of candidates to choose from. I am in much worse situation.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

ALDE should have quite a decent time - they will probably be returned to the Italian delegation, they'll return a decent slate in Spain (UpyD will obviously lose their four seats, but the surge of C's will make up for that), the resurgence of the FDP will boost their German numbers (although the FDP's spft Euroscepticism could create friction with Macron, En Marche, they can get some Polish representation with .Nowoczesna, Most in Croatia will probably make an impact etc

[parochial boy]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

But to be honest you still have a lot of candidates to choose from. I am in much worse situation.

Pfff, must be nice to have a vote in these 

[FredLindq]

Will Macrons En Marche! really join ALDE?! According to Macron himself he does not like the current groups in the EP. Could he create a new group with C's from Spain E+ from Italy and others from the Green/EFA and old ALDE groups?!

Remember Tapies Energie Radicale which created The Group of the European Radical Alliance (ERA). Whcin consisted off Energie Radicale, Scottish National Party, Pannella-Reformers List, People's Union/Flemish Free Democrats and Canarian Coalition.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

depends - do he and Verhofstadt get on?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Hottake: with SLD, Razem, Greens, IP and other rumps canceling each other, there won't be any Socialist or Green MEPs from Poland.

[DavidB.]

I think we cannot exclude the possibility that Macron manages to create a new group largely consisting of current ALDE members, which would exclude the more eurocritical and/or conservative ALDE parties (VVD, Venstre -- less Eurocritical than the others here but no Macronistas either --, FDP, maybe Walloon MR and the Swedish Liberals?) + some of the more questionable Central and Eastern European ones (Czech ANO, most importantly) and include centrist, Eurofederalist S&D (and perhaps EPP) parties like the Italian PD and the Greek centrists in S&D (if they still exist?). In that case, the right-liberal parties excluded are royally f**ked. VVD/V/FDP will never join a group that includes PiS, so they have nowhere to go, though they could create their own group with parties like Romanian PNL and Finnish NCP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Couldn't VVD join EPP?

[DavidB.]

Couldn't VVD join EPP?

They strongly identify as liberals, I doubt they would want to do so. But it could be a last-resort option. It's slightly less unlikely in a scenario where Juncker has left. Still, the VVD would prefer a separate group with right-wing liberals/moderate conservatives.

[windjammer]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

Lol, I'm pro European Union

[Zinneke]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

Lol, I'm pro European Union

Vanne.

depends - do he and Verhofstadt get on?

Verhofstadt's admiration for Macron is what it is given he prostituted himself to M5S for more status in Brussels.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Hottake: with SLD, Razem, Greens, IP and other rumps canceling each other, there won't be any Socialist or Green MEPs from Poland.

I think IP is basically guaranteed >5% if Nowacka actually gets around to turning it into a party any time soon. The media will do what they did with Petru and give her constant 'SAVIOUR OF THE LEFT' headlines for free.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In Ireland the changes of PES representation depends on whether Nessa Childers can get re-elected in Dublin as an Independent. At this point, I have no idea as to her chances.

Otherwise I suspect change will depend on what the other Indies too. There should be a FF gain in Midlands-North West although difficult to say from whom...

[Vosem]

It still takes representation in only 7 countries to become an official group, right? I seem to recall proposals of raising that to 10 but I don't think that went anywhere and I may have dreamed it.

[EPG]

Will Macrons En Marche! really join ALDE?! According to Macron himself he does not like the current groups in the EP. Could he create a new group with C's from Spain E+ from Italy and others from the Green/EFA and old ALDE groups?!

Remember Tapies Energie Radicale which created The Group of the European Radical Alliance (ERA). Whcin consisted off Energie Radicale, Scottish National Party, Pannella-Reformers List, People's Union/Flemish Free Democrats and Canarian Coalition.

The problem for Macron is getting to 7 countries. However, I agree that in principle, he would rather triangulate between the main groups than join one.

In Ireland the changes of PES representation depends on whether Nessa Childers can get re-elected in Dublin as an Independent. At this point, I have no idea as to her chances.

Otherwise I suspect change will depend on what the other Indies too. There should be a FF gain in Midlands-North West although difficult to say from whom...

Nessa Childers (S&D) says she is retiring. I would expect her Dublin constituency to be expanded, probably helping Fianna Fail (ALDE) and leaving one seat for the non-Sinn Féin left, though probably not Labour (S&D). Maybe a more left-wing socialist or a green.

[Nortexius]

Swedish Moderate party MEP Christoffer Fjellner claimed in a now deleted blogpost that the Sweden Democrats are in the process of joining the ECR along with the Danish Peoples Party and the Finns Party from Finland (Downing street does not approve).  https://twitter.com/janneandersson/status/960839893109891072

[Ethelberth]

No reasaon to think three parties would not survive.

Germany, Netherlands and Slovakia have three-way split in non-EPP right.

ECR, DE, SK, NL
EFDD, DE. SK, NL
ENF, DE, SK, NL

France, and Italy have split between EFDD and ENR

ECR, DE, SK, NL                 3/7
EFDD. DE, SK, NL, IT, FR    5/7
ENF, DE, SK, NL, IT, FR      5/7

Belgium and Czech Republic have split between ECR and ENF

ECR, DE, SK, NL, CS, BE                 5/7
EFDD. DE, SK, NL, IT, FR    5/7
ENF, DE, SK, NL, IT, FR, CS, BE      7/7

Lithuania has split betwen ECR and EFDD

ECR, DE, SK, NL, CS, BE, LT                 6/7
EFDD. DE, SK, NL, IT, FR, LT    6/7
ENF, DE, SK, NL, IT, FR, CS, BE      7/7

So you need one Finnish, Danish, Swedish, Polish, Greek, Latvian, Austrian, Estonian party to join ECR or EFDD in order to make a group.

[EPG]

Ireland: Currently 4 GUE, 4 EPP, 1 S&D, 1 ALDE, 1 ECR. It is proposed to increase the seat total by 2, to 13. The ALDE MEP is independent Harkin, not their affiliate party Fianna Fáil's Crowley, who chose to sit with the ECR Eurotories and leave the FF parliamentary party. It's not clear whether Crowley has attended the Parliament since 2014 and he certainly hasn't voted in any divisions. He'll win re-election if nominated, though.

In Ireland, these elections are totally second-order. If Fine Gael (EPP) remain in power, I would expect Fianna Fáil (ALDE) to make 2 or 3 gains from new seats or independents like Harkin (ALDE) and Flanagan (GUE) in Midlands-North West, and Childers (S&D) in Dublin, who announced her retirement. On the other hand, if a coalition involving Sinn Féin (GUE) comes to power, Sinn Féin may lose a seat to the rest of the left. Either way, the broad left should retain Childers's seat in the Dublin area. These people are currently scattered like seeds in half a dozen mini-parties from Labour to Workers Unemployed Action. This could mean GUE, Greens or S&D, depending on the candidate.

One reasonable scenario would be 4 GUE (n/c), 4 EPP (n/c), 4 ALDE (+3), 1 ECR (n/c), 0 S&D (-1).

[Former President tack50]

Ok, I'll take a look at Spain. Unlike in most elections, here we use pure proportionality and no threshold. Also worth noting that nationalist parties ally together.

First of all, the 2014 results

PP: 26.1% (16)
PSOE: 23.0% (14)
IU: 10.0% (6)
Podemos: 8.0% (5)
UPyD: 6.5% (4)
Coalition for Europe (CiU-PNV-CC): 5.4% (3)
ERC: 4% (2)
Cs: 3.2% (2)
The peoples decide (Bildu-BNG): 2.1% (1)
European Spring (Compromís-Equo): 1.9% (1)
VOX: 1.6% (0)
PACMA: 1.1% (0)

16 EPP
14 S&D
9 ALDE
3 G/EFA
12 GUE/NGL

Alliances

Both Compromís and Equo contested the 2019 general election alongside Podemos. Equo will definitely contest the European election with Podemos. There's a small chance of Compromís going alone though. If they do, their most likely ally is probably NC, a left wing Canarian party which didn't run in 2014.  However for the purposes of this I'll assume they just run with Podemos or don't run at all.

The Bildu-BNG alliance will probably continue. I don't think ERC will join them, Catalonia is big enough to go on its own.

The Coalition for Europe is tough. Not sure if the alliance will break up or not. For the purposes of this, I'll assume it doesn't. If it does break up though, it's probably because either CiU or CC left. If CiU leaves they will either run alone and get 1-2 seats and if CC leaves they will probably just not run at all, or maybe run alone and get a negligible amount of votes.

My 2019 prediction (59 seats)

PP: 27% (17)
PSOE: 22% (13)
Cs: 19% (12)
UP: 16% (10)
CEU: 5.7% (3)
ERC: 3.4% (2)
LPD: 1.3% (0)
VOX: 1.6% (1)
PACMA: 1.6% (1)

EPP 17 (+1)
S&D 13 (-1)
ALDE: 15 (+6)
GUE/NGL 10 (-2)
G/EFA 3 (-)
ENF 1 (+1)

I think both Vox and Pacma might make it in. Though this is a bold projection though. But I think that the lack of useful voting might help them here. Pacma already got 1.2% of the vote in 2016. And Vox might see a rise because of Catalonia, though it will depend a lot on how much the issue is noticed in May 2019. If other stuff is important then they won't make it in.

As for groups, I guess Vox joins ENF (though anything from ECR to ENF will be fine) and Pacma joins G/EFA easily

[DavidB.]

For an incredibly volatile country, the 2014 EP election result in the Netherlands was remarkably similar to the 2009 result:

Total number of seats: 26
CDA-EPP: 15.2%, 5 seats (nc)
D66-ALDE: 15.5%, 4 seats (+1)
PVV-ENF: 13.3%, 4 seats (-1)
VVD-ALDE: 12%, 3 seats (nc)
SP-LEFT: 9.6%, 2 seats (nc)
PvdA-S&D: 9.4%, 3 seats (nc)
CU-SGP, ECR: 7.7%, 2 seats (nc)
GL-G/EFA: 7%, 1 seat (-1)
PvdD-LEFT: 4.2%, 1 seat (+1)

50Plus just missed out on winning a seat with 3.7% of the vote and 175k out of almost 183k of the necessary votes. With 26 seats, a party needed 3.8% of the vote.

As we are set to gain three seats for a total of 29, the "threshold" will be lowered to 3.4%.

Turnout was about 37% in both 2009 and 2014, so everything will depend on who manages to best mobilize their voters. Even DENK could gain a seat if they manage to mobilize their electorate better than other parties. The election is still far away so I won't come up with a detailed prediction, but it seems likely that FvD and 50Plus will enter the EP. Last time around everybody thought that the CDA would lose seats, but they did not, mostly because of their electoral alliance with CU-SGP but also because of the fact that CDA voters are simply more inclined to turn out for inconsequential elections like this one than the electorate as a whole. Electoral alliances will not exist anymore next year, so I think the CDA losing at least one seat would be a safe bet. The PVV are also likely to lose one or even two if FvD are still going strong next year (which is not a given). GL are likely to gain one or two, D66 could lose one, the PvdA (who owe their current third seat to an electoral alliance with GL) will probably lose one and maybe two.

Estimate:
CDA: 3-5 seats (4 most likely)
D66: 3-5 seats (4 most likely)
PVV: 2-4 seats (2-3 most likely)
VVD: 3-4 seats (3 most likely)
SP: 2-3 seats
PvdA: 1-3 seats (1-2 most likely)
CU-SGP: 2-3 seats (2 most likely)
GL: 2-4 seats
PvdA: 1-2 seats (1 most likely)
50Plus: 0-1 seat (1 most likely)
DENK: 0-1 seat (0 most likely)
FvD: 0-4 seats (1-3 most likely)

Political fragmentation in the Netherlands causes parties to be very weak in EP parliamentary groups, which doesn't matter too much (it remains the EP) but is still worrisome and might make the difference in votes that matter to the country, such as the recent vote in which pulse fishing was banned. Compare that to Hungary, which has much fewer seats but whose ruling party has a whopping 14 seats and does have influence within the EPP (at least to the extent that they get a pass for their domestic policies while Poland doesn't).

[Mike88]

Well, let's talk about Portugal. European elections have a tradition of punishment of either the government, the opposition or both. 1989, 2004 and 2009 were elections of clear punishment of the incumbent government: 1989 a punishment to Cavaco Silva's PSD; 2004 a punishment to Barroso's PSD; 2009 an overwhelming punishment to Sócrates's PS. But, 1987, 1994 and 1999 were elections of congratulations to the incumbent governments: 1987, the 1st EU elections, gave a landslide victory to the PSD; 1994, the PSD, after 9 years in power, basically tied with the PS in votes; 1999, a resounding PS victory. 2014 was the exception. Both PS and PSD/CDS were clearly punished, but more the PS than the PSD/CDS because of expectations.

So, what will happen in 2019? A lot can happen till then but, with the current data, the PS will have a comfortable win of more than 10 points over PSD. As of right now, this is how i see it:

37.7% PS, 9 seats (+1)
26.5% PSD, 7 (+1)
  8.9% BE, 2 (+1)
  8.0% CDS, 2 (+1)
  7.3% CDU, 1 (-2)
  2.5% PAN, 0
  4.1% Other, 0 (-2)
  5.0% Blank/Invalid

35.0% Turnout

9 S&D (+1)
9 EPP (+1)
3 GUE/NGL (-1)
0 ALDE (-1)

MPT would lose its sole MEP, José Inácio Faria - currently seating with EPP, because Marinho Pinto left the party to form a new one, PDR, and Marinho Pinho would also be out because he has stated he will not run for another term.

[Tender Branson]

Here's my Austria preview:

2014 results (18 seats)

27.0% ÖVP (EPP) - 5 seats
24.1% SPÖ (PES) - 5 seats
19.7% FPÖ (EAF) - 4 seats
14.5% Greens (EGP) - 3 seats
  8.1% NEOS (ALDE) - 1 seat
  2.8% EU-STOP
  2.1% A different Europe
  1.2% REKOS
  0.5% BZÖ

Turnout: 45.4%

---

I'm pretty sure that the small parties below the threshold are not running again (well, EU-STOP might because their frontrunner is a querulent weirdo who runs all the time).

List Pilz might also run, splitting the Greens share in half (2014 was a really good year for them, before the migrant wave of course).

Also, low turnout elections like the EU one are always good for the ÖVP, Greens and NEOS because their voters are higher educated and are more likely to vote than others - such as voters from the SPÖ and FPÖ who are more working class. Therefore the FPÖ always underperforms in EU elections.

Much will also depend on the ÖVP-FPÖ's coalition climate early next year. As of now, it seems they might remain popular for another year (the ÖVP more so than the FPÖ of course). Tax cuts and child tax credits are kicking in on Jan. 1, 2019 - which might also help them in the election.

Usually, Austrian voters use the EU election to punish the domestic government, but 2019 could be different of some sort: I expect the ÖVP to win easily and gain votes, while the FPÖ will do worse. The SPÖ should do well and gain a bit, just like NEOS.

My prediction (19 seats, I guess, because of Brexit):

33% ÖVP (6 seats)
28% SPÖ (5 seats)
18% FPÖ (4 seats)
10% NEOS (2 seats)
  6% Greens (1 seat)
  4% LiPi (1 seat)
  1% Others

---

So, +1 seat for EPP and +1 for ALDE.

-1 seat for EGP (assuming LiPi joins them).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It'll be interesting to see if these elections can reverse the constant decline in turnout that has plagued them since the begining.