European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian lead candidates for the EP elections are taking shape:

Othmar Karas (ÖVP)



Christian Kern (SPÖ)



Lord Voldemort (FPÖ)



Claudia Gamon (NEOS)



Michel Reimon (Greens)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

Hmm, i believe the Belgian PVDA-PTB might follow FI, because it's very popular currently in French-speaking Belgium, and French-speaking Belgium has of course followed the French presidential campaign in which JLM did very well. Someone even made a new (irrelevant) party that was named Wallonie Insoumise, based on FI (which could ally with other far-left groups / parties in a far-left alliance in French-speaking Belgium to contest the 2019 European, federal and regional elections, just like they've done in 2014). I also believe the Flemish far-left also feels more related to the Scandinavian Left Parties, than of Eastern-European far-left parties. I receive the party magazine every two months, and it has often articles in it, in which they talk with pride about the success of Ada Colau in Barcelona, esp. in relationship with the upcoming local elections here in Belgium.

PVDA-PTB will most likely win 1-3 seats.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.

The Lega are in ENF and the N-VA are in ECR, so they're currently not in the same group in the first place. I think it's not unlikely the N-VA will be leaving ECR after the Tories are gone and PiS will take over the place: the group will be dominated by right-wing populists of a different, more nativist and anti-establishment type than the N-VA. I guess N-VA could join the EPP or ALDE, with EPP being more likely (but CD&V or MR/Open VLD would have to be okay with it, which is why it didn't happen last time; perhaps it's different now that they have been in a coalition for four years). But they could stay in ECR too.

I'm placing my bets on Dutch Forum voor Democratie, who are likely to win 2-3 seats, joining ECR. Their youth movement, JFVD, are already in the process of being associated with the European Young Conservatives, ECR's youth movement. After the UK Tories are gone, it's probably a right fit for FVD. Associating themselves with somewhat less controversial RRWPs like Finnish PS, Swedish SD and Danish DF seems like a good move. Dutch CU-SGP are already in ECR but I don't think the SGP would mind sitting with FVD; the CU representative might be less happy, however, and I don't know if they could veto it. Though FVD arguably fit much better in ECR than CU and will probably bring more seats with them.

If Puigdemont gets on the list and N-VA joins EPP, than Puigdemont and members of PP would both be part of EPP. I believe it won't happen though and CD&V which is called the opposition party inside our government will probably veto it. I see N-VA having more chance to apply for ALDE as a conservative-liberal party just like VVD and PdeCAT. Though, it would still be weird in some sense, because I remember lots of N-VA politicians be critical of Europe in general, and some on the right and youth wings supporting Le Pen in that race vs Macron. But those EU fractions are inevitably a big tent.

[Zinneke]

What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

Hmm, i believe the Belgian PVDA-PTB might follow FI, because it's very popular currently in French-speaking Belgium, and French-speaking Belgium has of course followed the French presidential campaign in which JLM did very well. Someone even made a new (irrelevant) party that was named Wallonie Insoumise, based on FI (which could ally with other far-left groups / parties in a far-left alliance in French-speaking Belgium to contest the 2019 European, federal and regional elections, just like they've done in 2014). I also believe the Flemish far-left also feels more related to the Scandinavian Left Parties, than of Eastern-European far-left parties. I receive the party magazine every two months, and it has often articles in it, in which they talk with pride about the success of Ada Colau in Barcelona, esp. in relationship with the upcoming local elections here in Belgium.

PVDA-PTB will most likely win 1-3 seats.

Intersting. I was told the "new" PVDA-PTB (post-Ludo Martens) and Podemos have a same intellectual "godmother" in the form of Chantalle Mouffe, who also influenced Mélenchon's 2017 campaign. and her emphasis on localism is what helped both you guys and Podemos become implanted electorally. No surprise Colau is popular.

I think though that PVDA-PTB never really criticise the EU the way Méluche does. They talk about social dumping, ending neo-liberal hegemony in Europe, etc. But they, perhaps wisely, never commit to anti-European rhetoric the way Meluche does.

EDIT ; and on the subject of the N-VA, I find it hard to see them joining ALDE led by Verhofstadt.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

Hmm, i believe the Belgian PVDA-PTB might follow FI, because it's very popular currently in French-speaking Belgium, and French-speaking Belgium has of course followed the French presidential campaign in which JLM did very well. Someone even made a new (irrelevant) party that was named Wallonie Insoumise, based on FI (which could ally with other far-left groups / parties in a far-left alliance in French-speaking Belgium to contest the 2019 European, federal and regional elections, just like they've done in 2014). I also believe the Flemish far-left also feels more related to the Scandinavian Left Parties, than of Eastern-European far-left parties. I receive the party magazine every two months, and it has often articles in it, in which they talk with pride about the success of Ada Colau in Barcelona, esp. in relationship with the upcoming local elections here in Belgium.

PVDA-PTB will most likely win 1-3 seats.

Intersting. I was told the "new" PVDA-PTB (post-Ludo Martens) and Podemos have a same intellectual "godmother" in the form of Chantalle Mouffe, who also influenced Mélenchon's 2017 campaign. and her emphasis on localism is what helped both you guys and Podemos become implanted electorally. No surprise Colau is popular.

I think though that PVDA-PTB never really criticise the EU the way Méluche does. They talk about social dumping, ending neo-liberal hegemony in Europe, etc. But they, perhaps wisely, never commit to anti-European rhetoric the way Meluche does.

EDIT ; and on the subject of the N-VA, I find it hard to see them joining ALDE led by Verhofstadt.

Hmm, i think PVDA-PTB is soft Eurosceptic like most parties of GUE-NGL are. I need to read a bit more on what you just said, but i think those parties are similar. PVDA-PTB definitely has good contacts with Podemos, and the youth wing of it, has also participated in anti-Macron protests together with FI.

If VLD leaves ALDE and join Macron's En Marche, N-VA could join ALDE. On economic policies, they have similar views, on social they share some views, but disagree with others. I'm not sure, but it will be ECR or ALDE, while VLD will join LREM or stay in ALDE. Without Verhofstadt, i wiuld have betted on them joining LREM, but because he's basically the front guy of ALDE, i'm not so sure of it.

Has someone a good idea on what European political parties we will get?

EPP
S&D
ECR
ALDE
Greens-EFA
EFDD
ENF
GUE(-NGL)

New:
DiEM25 (supported by Loach, Chomsky and Assange)
The Movement (supported by Bannon)
En Marche
Now The People

Did I forget something?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

If you are talking about parties there is also ECPM but they are cooperating with ECR.

[palandio]

[...]
Has someone a good idea on what European political parties we will get?
[...]

EPP  100%
S&D  100%
ECR  Without the Tories, PiS would be dominant. PiS might try to get into EPP and the Western Europeans might not feel comfortable in an Eastern-dominated group.
ALDE  Will continue, but composition depends heavily on Macron's grouping. If Macron drags away enough left-liberals, N-VA etc. might join.
Greens-EFA  99%
EFDD  Without UKIP there is basically only M5* and some Eastern European splinters. Might merge with ECR, some could go to ENF.
ENF  Difficulty won't be the number of MEPs, but the number of countries. Some (FPÖ, lmao) might try to dissociate themselves from the others because muh respectability.
GUE(-NGL) With Now the People splitting off, Linke and Syriza will be left out in the cold with some orthodox commies and random splinters, GUE is heavily at risk.

New:
DiEM25 (supported by Loach, Chomsky and Assange) Probably not going anywhere.
The Movement (supported by Bannon) This guy is too full of himself. Some from ENF might search his advice, some will not, won't be enough for a Bannon Movement by far.
En Marche Quite plausible that Macron can form a group with LREM, C's, maybe and Renzi or Bonino list and EU federalist and left-liberal parties from other countries.
Now The People Quite plausible.

[DavidB.]

I think ECR and ENF, which both have a pretty solid core, will stay around, but EFD will probably be gone.

By now ECR parties know that the Tories will be gone and that PiS will probably lead the group, but still the Sweden Democrats have moved there. This might also suggest some intra-Nordic talks, indicating DF and PS will stay. Regardless, there is quite a number of (mostly Eastern European) parties that won't be eager to join ENF but is too euroskeptic for EPP (or ALDE). ECR seems to be their natural home. I think N-VA could leave, but I don't see why others would. Small chance of the one CU representative going to EPP, I guess, but still very unlikely.

As for ENF, they should be safe. FN, PVV, AfD, VB and the Lega will stay in, Czech SPD will definitely join, and then they only need the FPÖ to stay in (still think they're going nowhere, ECR parties don't want to be associated with the FPÖ) - otherwise some independent (or Slovak SNS) might join them, and there is still a chance of Fidesz joining too.

Then it is the question what will happen on the far-left (GUE/NGL split?) and among liberals: will LREM establish their own group or stay in ALDE? In the first case, what will ALDE members that cannot realistically move to LREM (VVD, V, FDP, ANO, maybe the Estonian Reformists) do?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Does someone also know why Die Linke keeps supporting Syriza or doesn't join Melenchon's movement, and what is Syriza going to do if they're left out (apply for membership of S&D, Green-EFA or even a Eurosceptic parliamentary group like EFDD?).

If Macron draws enough left-liberals away, M5S might actually join ALDE.

[DavidB.]

If Macron draws enough left-liberals away, M5S might actually join ALDE.

So what's left in ALDE would be largely based on the Dutch VVD, German FDP and Danish Venstre. I'm sure they'll love being associated with M5S' reckless financial policies.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If Macron draws enough left-liberals away, M5S might actually join ALDE.

So what's left in ALDE would be largely based on the Dutch VVD, German FDP and Danish Venstre. I'm sure they'll love being associated with M5S' reckless financial policies.

Well, they could potentially join DiEM25 together with Syriza, Czech Pirates and generation.s. I can't seem them join ECR, ENFP or EPP either. They could possibly join Macron's movement because of their policies on direct democracy and reforming Europe.

[Zinneke]

Does someone also know why Die Linke keeps supporting Syriza or doesn't join Melenchon's movement,

Die Linke don't like Mélenchon for personal reasons (he tries to run the group like he runs his "party"/movement, and let's be blunt, he's a massive c***) and for the pretty anti-German xenophobic rhetoric - he litteraly wrote a book called Le Hareng de Bismarck where he blames Germany for pretty much everything.  I also gather Die Linke see themselves as more a testimonial party in the European political scene than the French. Add to that the heavy dose of ideological secterianism that runs through the entire European left and its easy to see why they don't see eye to eye.

GUE will not split though. At worst 1 or 2 will leave but money always talks. Even with the far left.

[Former President tack50]

Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.

The Lega are in ENF and the N-VA are in ECR, so they're currently not in the same group in the first place. I think it's not unlikely the N-VA will be leaving ECR after the Tories are gone and PiS will take over the place: the group will be dominated by right-wing populists of a different, more nativist and anti-establishment type than the N-VA. I guess N-VA could join the EPP or ALDE, with EPP being more likely (but CD&V or MR/Open VLD would have to be okay with it, which is why it didn't happen last time; perhaps it's different now that they have been in a coalition for four years). But they could stay in ECR too.

I'm placing my bets on Dutch Forum voor Democratie, who are likely to win 2-3 seats, joining ECR. Their youth movement, JFVD, are already in the process of being associated with the European Young Conservatives, ECR's youth movement. After the UK Tories are gone, it's probably a right fit for FVD. Associating themselves with somewhat less controversial RRWPs like Finnish PS, Swedish SD and Danish DF seems like a good move. Dutch CU-SGP are already in ECR but I don't think the SGP would mind sitting with FVD; the CU representative might be less happy, however, and I don't know if they could veto it. Though FVD arguably fit much better in ECR than CU and will probably bring more seats with them.

If Puigdemont gets on the list and N-VA joins EPP, than Puigdemont and members of PP would both be part of EPP. I believe it won't happen though and CD&V which is called the opposition party inside our government will probably veto it. I see N-VA having more chance to apply for ALDE as a conservative-liberal party just like VVD and PdeCAT. Though, it would still be weird in some sense, because I remember lots of N-VA politicians be critical of Europe in general, and some on the right and youth wings supporting Le Pen in that race vs Macron. But those EU fractions are inevitably a big tent.

Well, the thing is that PDECat might be expelled from ALDE anyways (probably because of Cs pressure). The ALDE gropup seems to be preparing for that at least. So expelling PDECat while including N-VA wouldn't make much sense honestly.  EPP probably wouldn't include them either. Especially if Puigdemont gets on the list (he seems to deny this though)

Apparently N-VA was a member of the EFA for a while. Maybe they can go back there?

[Zinneke]

Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.

The Lega are in ENF and the N-VA are in ECR, so they're currently not in the same group in the first place. I think it's not unlikely the N-VA will be leaving ECR after the Tories are gone and PiS will take over the place: the group will be dominated by right-wing populists of a different, more nativist and anti-establishment type than the N-VA. I guess N-VA could join the EPP or ALDE, with EPP being more likely (but CD&V or MR/Open VLD would have to be okay with it, which is why it didn't happen last time; perhaps it's different now that they have been in a coalition for four years). But they could stay in ECR too.

I'm placing my bets on Dutch Forum voor Democratie, who are likely to win 2-3 seats, joining ECR. Their youth movement, JFVD, are already in the process of being associated with the European Young Conservatives, ECR's youth movement. After the UK Tories are gone, it's probably a right fit for FVD. Associating themselves with somewhat less controversial RRWPs like Finnish PS, Swedish SD and Danish DF seems like a good move. Dutch CU-SGP are already in ECR but I don't think the SGP would mind sitting with FVD; the CU representative might be less happy, however, and I don't know if they could veto it. Though FVD arguably fit much better in ECR than CU and will probably bring more seats with them.

If Puigdemont gets on the list and N-VA joins EPP, than Puigdemont and members of PP would both be part of EPP. I believe it won't happen though and CD&V which is called the opposition party inside our government will probably veto it. I see N-VA having more chance to apply for ALDE as a conservative-liberal party just like VVD and PdeCAT. Though, it would still be weird in some sense, because I remember lots of N-VA politicians be critical of Europe in general, and some on the right and youth wings supporting Le Pen in that race vs Macron. But those EU fractions are inevitably a big tent.

Well, the thing is that PDECat might be expelled from ALDE anyways (probably because of Cs pressure). The ALDE gropup seems to be preparing for that at least. So expelling PDECat while including N-VA wouldn't make much sense honestly.  EPP probably wouldn't include them either. Especially if Puigdemont gets on the list (he seems to deny this though)

Apparently N-VA was a member of the EFA for a while. Maybe they can go back there?

I explained in the 2014 thread that back when the N-VA had a single member that was part of the EPP but when the N-VA divorced with CD&V she was kicked out. She was part of the left(ish) wing of the party, pro-EU and voted a lot with the Greens/EFA group, so they let her in. Now the N-VA have a much more right-wing grouping, some of whom aren't necessarily even that nationalist. If Lamberts remains Vice-President of G/EFA and influential he will never allow them to rejoin.

N-VA's main issue is that because EP elections coincide with our federals, every other party in Belgium cannot afford to associate itself with it even on a European level during the campaign.

[DavidB.]

Macron creating his own group could be a blessing from the heavens for N-VA: Open VLD (and MR?) could move there, and the N-VA would be a perfect ideological fit for a group with VVD, FDP and V. But are Open VLD generally just as Eurofederalist as Verhofstadt is? And how eurofederalist are MR? Would they be likely to join a Macron group or stay behind in ALDE with the more right-wing parties?

[bigic]

and what is Syriza going to do if they're left out (apply for membership of S&D, Green-EFA or even a Eurosceptic parliamentary group like EFDD?).

Probably move to S&D. Tsipras and his party colleagues are regular guests on the S&D/PES meetings. Although I don't know if Pasok could veto Syriza.
euractiv.com/section/elections/news/sd-pasok-is-completely-isolated-in-our-group/
in.gr/2018/07/04/english-edition/tsipras-attempts-build-bridges-toward-social-democracy/
euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/pes-president-unlike-epp-socialists-do-not-impose-decisions-on-member-parties/

[Zinneke]

According to Le Vif, Verhofstadt made the approach to LREM without consulting MR, which pissed them off. But there have been meetings between Chastel (MR) and Castener (LREM) and although MR have rightened their discourse they are still "Eurofederalist" (as you call it).

Back when he was still popular, There was a general tug of war between MR, cdH and Défi to ride on the Macronista wave. Like Lakigigar said French politics can have a small influence on francophone electoral moods and movements. Its quite important to get Macron's backing, depending on his popularity.

Same for VLD. They know Verhofstadt is an asset. And their electorate really don't tend to be in any way eurosceptic enough to pull the rug out from him.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

EDIT ; and on the subject of the N-VA, I find it hard to see them joining ALDE led by Verhofstadt.

Didn't they very briefly negotiate with Verhofstadt back in 2014? I swear I can remember Béatrice Delvaux being absolutely furious at the time that he was even considering it.

[Ethelberth]

Do not forget AFD, the "big prize" in post election regroupings.

[Zinneke]

EDIT ; and on the subject of the N-VA, I find it hard to see them joining ALDE led by Verhofstadt.

Didn't they very briefly negotiate with Verhofstadt back in 2014? I swear I can remember Béatrice Delvaux being absolutely furious at the time that he was even considering it.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2014/news/liberals-embarrassed-as-n-va-joins-ecr-making-it-third-largest-parliament-group/

ALDE were ready to let them in, but this was because of pressure from the Catalans and VVD iirc. Verhofstadt was never enthusiastic about it, and N-VA voted to join ECR, so he probably felt double crossed by this alone. They did it on the basis of freedom of vote, but let's also be honest : ten years ago I could see N-VA easily joining ALDE. Now, even if its just some Northen European neo-liberals who dogwhistle anti-Southern rhetoric (sound familiar?), N-VA would still rather continue to be in a "right-wing populist" group. Like Lakigigar alluded too there are too many people who are sympathetic to the traditional far right in the party now, and Francken's meteoric rise - and he is still rumoured to be somewhere on N-VA's European list - has undoubtedly reenforced this.

In terms of the current campaign, I think Verhofstadt himself wouldn't mind that much if it furthered his European ambitions (he negotiated with M5S ffs). Its his party that would probably not allow it because it undermines the way they distinguish themselves from the N-VA on every level of government.

[DavidB.]

Do not forget AFD, the "big prize" in post election regroupings.

Their move to ENF seems a done deal to me, unless a whole regrouping will take place and all these euroskeptic parties manage to unite into something entirely new - wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

ALDE has always been a bit of a nonsensical grouping - essentially it's just a catch all for parties that don't really have a left-wing heritage but also are a distinct from the primary centre-right faction. The new Macronista movement would most honestly do well to remove the likes of D66, the Swedish Liberal and Centre parties, Radikale Venstre, NEOS etc. from the National Liberals (FDP, VVD, UDI etc).

Honestly, the best thing to do for the soft-Eurosceptic-liberals to do would be to fold into EPP, which in turn could give up its more pro-EU parties into the Macronista league.

[EPG]

Well, I mean, GUE-NGL is home to Die Linke, Mélenchon but also Ireland's SF (oops, I wrote Denmark's SF!). It is hard to think of parties even in ALDE that have less to do with each other. You can't make a European group of people who all agree with each other, though the Greens come close. However, I would also guess that ALDE-Macron will take parties from EPP. Let's get real: the EP groups are about power brokerage, and EPP in particular is the Merkel club, but Merkel is on the way out. On that note:

Did I forget something?

All signs now suggest ALDE and Macron will form a joint list, through the elegant device of opposing the Spitzenkandidat system. They might, just, win the most seats - who would want a split in that context?

I suspect GUE-NGL and Maintenant le peuple will end up coalescing together. It's a small political space. In a much larger space, the three right-wing blocs will probably end up as two, maybe one for the governmental right-wingers and nationalists, and one for the anti-system Putinists and German nats, but I honestly don't see either close to "winning" the European elections. At any rate, it's probably the #1 pre-election bloc that wins that perception, rather than the post-election blocs.

[Diouf]

Matteo Renzi: "We should build a European coalition with Macron, Greens, Liberals and Tsipras. Frans Timmermans should be our candidate for Commission President".

https://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/09/20/alle-europee-con-macron-e-tsipras-e-timmermans-candidato-alla-presidenza-della-commissione_a_23534008/

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll:



Another poll result where 5% are voting for "other" parties, which do not exist ... (I think those are former Green voters from 2014 who do not know which party to support in 2019).