European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Krago]

Some friends and I are planning a tour of battlefields in northern France and Belgium next spring, right around the time of the European Parliament elections.  In fact, we're aiming to be in Brussels on Sat. May 25.

Are there any big political rallies around the EU elections?  Are there lots of candidate signs, either in the cities and towns, or in the rural areas?  If any Belgian or French members wish to PM me, it would be much appreciated.  You may even get a free meal, where you can explain to us all about d'Hondt divisors.

[bigic]

😍
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-mark-rutte-liberal-dream-team-upend-european-politics/
Although I'll be a bit disappointed if they decide to remove "liberal" from the group's name

[Former President tack50]

Some friends and I are planning a tour of battlefields in northern France and Belgium next spring, right around the time of the European Parliament elections.  In fact, we're aiming to be in Brussels on Sat. May 25.

Are there any big political rallies around the EU elections?  Are there lots of candidate signs, either in the cities and towns, or in the rural areas?  If any Belgian or French members wish to PM me, it would be much appreciated.  You may even get a free meal, where you can explain to us all about d'Hondt divisors.

There will almost certainly be big rallies and candidate signs indeed (though maybe over there it will be different?). There probably won't be any kind of European rallies though, the campaigns will be ran by the national parties.

Iirc Belgium also has its regional and national elections the same day, so you will find the biggest rallies there (of course they will be in French or Dutch though)

[swl]

😍
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-mark-rutte-liberal-dream-team-upend-european-politics/
Although I'll be a bit disappointed if they decide to remove "liberal" from the group's name

Their declared goal is to be 2nd group in Parliament behind EPP. Seems doable. S&D will lose a lot. Labour MEP will be gone, Italian PD will be wiped out as well as the French socialists, and SPD may have a very bad result.
Will be hard to overtake the EPP though, even if Orban leaves.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I can't see many places where S&D will do well honestly.

Portugal, Bulgaria and Malta seem the only places where it will make decent gains (though the latter only has 6 seats so a net of +1 would be the best scenario). Maybe in Latvia as well.

 And there might be chances (albeit not particularly great ones) of small +1 net gains in Sweden, Denmark or Spain. But it certainly won't be enough to counteract the 20 Labour MEPs leaving and the expected collapses of PD in Italy and PS in France

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Some friends and I are planning a tour of battlefields in northern France and Belgium next spring, right around the time of the European Parliament elections.  In fact, we're aiming to be in Brussels on Sat. May 25.

Are there any big political rallies around the EU elections?  Are there lots of candidate signs, either in the cities and towns, or in the rural areas?  If any Belgian or French members wish to PM me, it would be much appreciated.  You may even get a free meal, where you can explain to us all about d'Hondt divisors.

Hmm. The European parliament elections are being held together with federal and regional elections, because we have compulsory voting (and thus more elections are being held together). The national, regional and european elections are being held on Sun. May 26, so you'll notice it, but the theme won't be the European elections. Everyone will be talking about the federal elections.

I also live quite close to the battlegrounds... I live almost 15 km / 20 km to the east of it.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yeah, I can't see many places where S&D will do well honestly.

Portugal, Bulgaria and Malta seem the only places where it will make decent gains (though the latter only has 6 seats so a net of +1 would be the best scenario). Maybe in Latvia as well.

 And there might be chances (albeit not particularly great ones) of small +1 net gains in Sweden, Denmark or Spain. But it certainly won't be enough to counteract the 20 Labour MEPs leaving and the expected collapses of PD in Italy and PS in France

They'll do terrible in Belgium as well, because if the local elections turns out to be bad here (and it almost certainly will), the chairman of the Flemish social democrats might leave. Greens will have momentum because they'll have a very good result on what we can already call green sunday, and on the far-left, the marxists also make large gains on the social democrats, especially in the south. I expect those parties will make use of the momentum & win elections in 2019 as well, and i can't see who can replace the current chairman. Few social democratic politicians are celebrities, so they might almost certainly pick an unknown and moderate candidate, while the party is also being alleged of corruption scandals. In the south, they've collapsed as well. In Flanders, it seems like they'll govern together with the party that actually made from them a scapegoat, and it seems many left-wing voters won't appreciate such a move, but they've already said they're being open to govern with nationalists (N-VA), and believe me, if that happens, they might've trouble to reach the electoral threshold.

Labour Party in the Netherlands meanwhile has also collapsed. In many Eastern European countries, the same happened (or it already did?).

[Beagle]

Yeah, I can't see many places where S&D will do well honestly.

Portugal, Bulgaria and Malta seem the only places where it will make decent gains (though the latter only has 6 seats so a net of +1 would be the best scenario). Maybe in Latvia as well.

Wait, really? As divided as the Bulgarian Socialist Party currently is, they reasonably stand to gain 1 (one) seat in 2019. If the BSP has 222 very good days (from now until the election), they will gain their 6th MEP, and I suppose a 7th S&D Bulgarian MEP is conceivable if no parties other than GERB, BSP and DPS make the threshold (or, alternatively, ABV comes back from the dead or a new lefty party somehow catches fire and makes it). But a gain of one or two seats doesn't strike me as particularly decent on a pan-European level.

And it is very unlikely that there will be just 3 Bulgarian parties sending deputies to Brussels next year. It is not yet clear how the 'United Patriots' will split, but even if each party goes their own way, I suppose whatever formation coalesces around VMRO will have a more than even chance of returning their incumbent Dzhambazki (although I personally can't stand the man), which will only improve if one or two of the other nationalist parties is still in. The current Ataka turn to the ECR is laughable for any number of reasons - not the least how a party which literally started their last EU Parliament campaign in Moscow and whose partisan TV station was calling Kaczynski a fascist a few months ago is now in a PiS-lead alliance - but Ataka cannot be completely discounted even if they do run their proposed 'lol we are actually mafia so what' alliance with Nikolay Barekov (Bulgaria without Censorship) and a few other unsavoury characters. NFSB seem to want to run a coalition with a segment of the 'Old Right'/Reformist Bloc, while DSB and Yes Bulgaria have finally united. There is still enough time for a new entry - maybe one orbiting around the president Rumen Radev - so it is pretty certain that there will be ast least a couple MEPs outside GERB (EPP), BSP (S&D) and DPS (ALDE).

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I can't see many places where S&D will do well honestly.

Portugal, Bulgaria and Malta seem the only places where it will make decent gains (though the latter only has 6 seats so a net of +1 would be the best scenario). Maybe in Latvia as well.

Wait, really? As divided as the Bulgarian Socialist Party currently is, they reasonably stand to gain 1 (one) seat in 2019. If the BSP has 222 very good days (from now until the election), they will gain their 6th MEP, and I suppose a 7th S&D Bulgarian MEP is conceivable if no parties other than GERB, BSP and DPS make the threshold (or, alternatively, ABV comes back from the dead or a new lefty party somehow catches fire and makes it). But a gain of one or two seats doesn't strike me as particularly decent on a pan-European level.

And it is very unlikely that there will be just 3 Bulgarian parties sending deputies to Brussels next year. It is not yet clear how the 'United Patriots' will split, but even if each party goes their own way, I suppose whatever formation coalesces around VMRO will have a more than even chance of returning their incumbent Dzhambazki (although I personally can't stand the man), which will only improve if one or two of the other nationalist parties is still in. The current Ataka turn to the ECR is laughable for any number of reasons - not the least how a party which literally started their last EU Parliament campaign in Moscow and whose partisan TV station was calling Kaczynski a fascist a few months ago is now in a PiS-lead alliance - but Ataka cannot be completely discounted even if they do run their proposed 'lol we are actually mafia so what' alliance with Nikolay Barekov (Bulgaria without Censorship) and a few other unsavoury characters. NFSB seem to want to run a coalition with a segment of the 'Old Right'/Reformist Bloc, while DSB and Yes Bulgaria have finally united. There is still enough time for a new entry - maybe one orbiting around the president Rumen Radev - so it is pretty certain that there will be ast least a couple MEPs outside GERB (EPP), BSP (S&D) and DPS (ALDE).

Fair enough, I was just looking at the swing from 2014 compared to current polling for a general election there (19% to around 33%). +2 seemed reasonable to me and I was basically counting anything that wasn't +1 as decent enough. (+3 does indeed seem unlikely).

I was also counting on only 4 parties entering there (GERB, BSD, DPS and the United Patriots), but I'm not sure if that would be accurate (maybe smaller parties do better in EU elections? That seems a common theme across the EU).

My guesses right now on the ones with gains would be:

PT: +2
BG: +2 (though only +1 is also possible)
MT: +1 (as badly as PN is doing there's no way for a 5-1 split)
LV: +1
SE: +1 (but this one is very dependent on how the government forms)
DK: +1 (+2 might be doable but I guess it's unlikely)
ES: +1 (though 0 or +2 might also happen, also depends on how the current government holds and if there are snap elections or not)

[Diouf]

My guesses right now on the ones with gains would be:

PT: +2
BG: +2 (though only +1 is also possible)
MT: +1 (as badly as PN is doing there's no way for a 5-1 split)
LV: +1
SE: +1 (but this one is very dependent on how the government forms)
DK: +1 (+2 might be doable but I guess it's unlikely)
ES: +1 (though 0 or +2 might also happen, also depends on how the current government holds and if there are snap elections or not)

The Danish picture remains relatively muddy. A number of unknowns:
When will the General Election be held? (close to/at the same time as the EP vote, or earlier in December/January)
What will be the result of the General Election? (A Social Democrat minority government with 27-28% and on a high, or just above 20% as left wing voters flock to other parties. Or a Liberal-DPP-Conservative government with defeated Social Democrats in chaos?)
Who will be the DPP lead candidate? (the party topped the polls in 2014 with 26.6%, but they still haven't chosen candidates for 2019)
Will the New Right run?, and if so in an alliance with DPP or alone as (likely)wasted votes (depends on whether there is an general election, where they cross the threshold before the EP campaign
Will Magrethe Vestager run as a lead candidate for Commission President and if so how will it affect the race? (Likely boost for Social Liberals among centre-left voters. Will Social Democrats indicate support for her?).

The information we already have is:
Denmark will have one additional seat (from 13 to 14) which would have been won by Liberals in 2014.
There are two additional left wing parties on the ballot this time. The Alternative and the Red-Green Alliance. The former is a party with problems but a quite strong candidate, while the latter is a strong party with a quite weak candidate.
The Red Bloc Parties are currently stronger than in 2014 (51-52% in polls, compared to 45-47% in 2014)
The Social Democrats are currently stronger than in 2014 (25-27% in polls, compared to 19-21% in 2014).
The Social Democrat lead candidate is the same under average candidate as in 2014 (MEP Jeppe Kofoed).
The lead candidate field is on average, perhaps slightly worse than in 2014 but much will be decided by the DPP lead candidate.
The centre-right electoral alliance will be stronger this time (Liberal Alliance joins Liberals and Conservatives in electoral alliance, and have a fairly strong candidate in Minister of Culture Mette Bock. In 2014, they ran on their own so the 2.9% were wasted in that regard).
The Social Democrat electoral alliance will be weaker this time (Social Liberals are running in an electoral alliance with the Alternative, so the Social Democrats only partner is SPP. Effect will be even worse if Social Liberals get a Vestager boost)

So a number of things counting for and against.

[EPG]

It makes perfect sense as either alone would be weak whereas together their coalition would be strong, and they agree on the fundamentals. Contrary to opinion in the Brussels bubble, Euro-federalism is neither a fundamental nor is it likely any time soon, as half a dozen countries are in open revolt against the EU's authority.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

You know what is quite weird... There is a possibility i might be able to vote for Carles Puigdemont... The N-VA could put him on their list, and believe me i'm almost certain that he would be elected because there is strong pro-Catalonia support, especially among N-VA and VB voters. It might even attract voters.

[Former President tack50]

^^

Fun fact: The other famous secessionist leader (Oriol Junqueras, ERC) is actually his party's number 1 candidate for the European parliament. If elected (and he almost surely will be elected) I wonder if he would be the first MEP elected from prison.

Carles Puigdemont considered doing the same, running for a Spanish party (PDECat) instead of in Belgium but in the end he decided against it as he is afraid of being arrested in the Spanish embassy in Brussels.

I still wonder if he will run at all, even if it's under N-VA. And where would he sit in that case.

[Diouf]

Weber looks well ahead in terms of gathering EPP support

So with this, I think declared for Weber are CDU/CSU, CDA, Nea Demokratia, HDZ, GERB, DISY, Fine Gael, ÖVP and PNL.

Declared for Stubb are Moderates, Pro Patria and NCP.

Have anybody seen other declarations?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/manfred-weber-gets-commission-top-job-support-from-epp-leaders-spitzenkandidat/

[Former President tack50]

Wow, why? I personally think Stubb would be a lot better. I assume CDU has a lot of control over the EPP though, as the largest party within it by a decent margin and with Merkel seen as their face.

Since he is still in EPP, I wonder who Orban will endorse (if he endorses at all).

Also, apparently someone published a poll about a hypothetical brexit referendum in all 28 EU member states. Remain wins in all of them, with Italy being the closest one



The average country would vote 66-17 for remain. The most remain friendly country is Luxembourg and the closest one is Italy.

[rc18]

Ha, that “someone” being the EU themselves. That is an EU-commissioned poll...

Given that polling here essentially gives a statistical tie you should adjust accordingly.

[DavidB.]

I was once polled for the Eurobarometer. First the polling company lady had to take a few minutes to explain to me in a positive way all the good things that the EU does. Then she asked me these questions on my opinion of the EU. Needless to say that's going to affect respondents' answers. I was astounded.

[parochial boy]

Without knowing the methodology, I think it's a bit presumptuous to just discount a poll because we don't like the results. The UK is actually the closest, but even 60%-40%, is probably an outlier, but there have been a couple of other polls in the same region, so getting that sort of an outlier could happen even without the poll being completely methodologically absurd.

The more salient point is that polling hypothetical referendum questions is often close to meaningless, as public opinion often changes very rapidly when you go from being something that they don't seriously think about, to something they will actually have to vote about; and the UK is the only country where the EU is really on the cards.

[Diouf]

Weber is also supported by Slovenian SDS & SMK–MKP and KDH from Slovakia.

Still some big parties (Republicans, PO, PP, Fidesz, FI) left, but seems like Weber will sew this up quite easily. Great that there is a battle, and that is a significant one in terms of policies, even though it seems Weber is not much op for public debates before the congress.

[bigic]

Fidesz supports Weber.

[Diouf]

Matteo Salvini mulls bid for Commission presidency

https://www.politico.eu/article/matteo-salvini-commission-presidency-european-elections-2019-mulls-bid/

[Diouf]

LMŠ to officially become part of ALDE in November
Brussels, 17 October - The party of Prime Minister Marjan Šarec (LMŠ) will officially join the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe group (ALDE) in the European Parliament at a November congress in Madrid, Šarec confirmed for the press after attending a meeting of the liberals in Brussels on Wednesday


https://english.sta.si/2564444/lms-to-officially-become-part-of-alde-in-november

[bigic]

I guess a next Slovenian personality-based centrist party would be rejected by ALDE, because this is too much

These parties are/were the Slovenian ALDE members:
- Liberal Democracy of Slovenia (reduced to obscurity after death of their leader Janez Drnovšek)
- Gregor Virant Civic List
- Alenka Bratušek Party
- Modern Centre Party (originally Miro Cerar Party)

Positive Slovenia - Zoran Janković List also considered to join ALDE, but they eventually gave up

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll, now with Schieder for the SPÖ instead of Kern, who retired:

[DavidB.]

In S&D, First Vice President of the European Commission and former Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister Frans Timmermans (PvdA) is running against Maros Sefcovic of Slovak Smer, who has been a European Commissioner since 2009 and apparently is also a Vice President. According to Europe Elects, the Italian PD has endorsed Timmermans. I'm assuming Timmermans should be able to win this (the German SPD will probably support him, and there are not that many Central and Eastern European S&D parties that are strong), but it will be interesting to see the choice of PSOE, French and Portuguese PS, and PASOK (or whatever they're called today). After all, they might hold some grudges against the PvdA given Jeroen Dijsselbloem's stance during the Greek crisis. Though I remember Smer being quite harsh on the Greeks regarding budgetary discipline as well.