European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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  European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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Author Topic: European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019  (Read 157283 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #675 on: April 18, 2019, 05:26:58 PM »

This latest YouGov is basically a(nother) push poll from the PV campaign, so treat with caution.

And lo and behold another YouGov poll for the Euro Elections - but a "regular" one, not commissioned by any lobby group - has the Brexit Party and Labour pretty much neck and neck.
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Mike88
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« Reply #676 on: April 18, 2019, 07:54:51 PM »

About the Aximage poll, pundits in Portugal are now considering that the PS could be on the verge of losing the EP elections. Now, the PS is still ahead in the polls, but the trend is, currently, negative for them. This is a big turn of events. Just 3 months ago, the PSD was in a huge leadership row and plummeting in the polls, and look at them now. I still think the PS will win, but it could be a razor thin margin. We'll see.

Also, according to that poll, EPP would get 37.9% (9 seats), PES would get 33.6% (8 seats), GUE/NGL would get 17.4% (4 seats), and EGP would get 1.3% (0 seats).
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #677 on: April 19, 2019, 04:41:28 AM »

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).
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Mike88
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« Reply #678 on: April 19, 2019, 05:17:23 AM »

17 parties/coalitions will be on the ballot in Portugal. The Constitutional Court has sorted out the way they will appear on ballot papers on May 26th. The order is the following:

PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party , Far-left/Maoism, main candidate: Luís Júdice
PDR - Democratic Republican Party, Centrist, ALDE, main candidate: Marinho e Pinto
PAN - People–Animals–Nature , Center-left, EGP, main candidate: Francisco Guerreiro
PS -Socialist Party, Center-left, PES, main candidate: Pedro Marques
A - Alliance, Center-right, main candidate: Paulo Sande
PNR - National Renovator Party, Far-right, AENM, main candidate: João Patrocínio
NC - We, the Citizens, Center to Center-right, main candidate: Paulo de Morais
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, Center-left, main candidate: Elsa Mata
PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right, EPP, main candidate: Paulo Rangel
BE - Left Bloc, Left-wing, EUL/NGL, main candidate: Marisa Matias
IL - Liberal Initiative, Center/Liberalism, ALDE, main candidate: Ricardo Arroja
MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, Far-left, main candidate: Vasco Santos
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right, EPP, main candidate: Nuno Melo
PURP - United Party of Retirees and Pensioners, Big tent/Pensioners rights, main candidate: Fernando Loureiro
BASTA! - ENOUGH! coalition (PPM/PPV-CDC), Right-wing, ECPM, main candidate: André Ventura
LIVRE - Free, Center-left to Left-wing, Diem25/EGP, main candidate: Rui Tavares
CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP/PEV), Left-wing, EUL/NGL, main candidate: João Ferreira
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #679 on: April 19, 2019, 07:32:09 AM »

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).

By „early voting“ you mean that postal ballots have been sent to voters ?

As far as I know, there is no early voting in the US sense in Germany ...
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #680 on: April 19, 2019, 09:24:57 AM »

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).

By „early voting“ you mean that postal ballots have been sent to voters ?

As far as I know, there is no early voting in the US sense in Germany ...

I picked up a "postal" ballot at the respective district office, made a cross on it, and stuffed it into the "postal" ballot box standing there.

In a strict legal sense that was a postal vote too, although in Germany you have the option to personally retrieve your ballot during office hours and cast your vote with it on location, which is de facto a form of early voting.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #681 on: April 19, 2019, 09:42:47 AM »

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).

By „early voting“ you mean that postal ballots have been sent to voters ?

As far as I know, there is no early voting in the US sense in Germany ...

I picked up a "postal" ballot at the respective district office, made a cross on it, and stuffed it into the "postal" ballot box standing there.

In a strict legal sense that was a postal vote too, although in Germany you have the option to personally retrieve your ballot during office hours and cast your vote with it on location, which is de facto a form of early voting.

Yeah, same like here.

Technically, it is still "postal voting", because you request a "postal ballot" - even though you can fill it out right there and drop it into the box.

I wonder how many people mail it back and how many just fill it out in their municipal office ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #682 on: April 19, 2019, 09:47:57 AM »

New Austria EU poll (probably the 50th or so already from the same pollster, Research Affairs):



Projected turnout:

47% will definitely vote (+2% compared with 2014). Green- and NEOS-voters are the most motivated to vote. ÖVP-voters are so far least motivated to vote. This could change soon, when Chancellor Kurz starts to campaign, which could drive up overall turnout to 50%+ (= "high" for EU elections).

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Run-auf-EU-Wahl-OeVP-klar-vorn-SPOe-holt-auf-FPOe-Dritte/376697495
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #683 on: April 19, 2019, 10:55:36 AM »

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).

By „early voting“ you mean that postal ballots have been sent to voters ?

As far as I know, there is no early voting in the US sense in Germany ...

I picked up a "postal" ballot at the respective district office, made a cross on it, and stuffed it into the "postal" ballot box standing there.

In a strict legal sense that was a postal vote too, although in Germany you have the option to personally retrieve your ballot during office hours and cast your vote with it on location, which is de facto a form of early voting.

Yeah, same like here.

Technically, it is still "postal voting", because you request a "postal ballot" - even though you can fill it out right there and drop it into the box.

I wonder how many people mail it back and how many just fill it out in their municipal office ...

A total of 29% of all ballots were cast via "postal vote" in the 2017 Bundestag election, a significant increase from the 9% we had back in 1990.

Official numbers regarding the share of ballots which are actually mailed in versus the ballots which are filled out on location don't exist.

An analysis of voting behavior in the 2002 Bundestag election (at that point 18% of all voters used a postal ballot one way or the other) came to the conclusion that in 42% of these cases the postal ballot was used as a form of early voting on location at the respective municipal office. I would expect that this share has increased since then, especially since the legal requirement to provide a formal reason why you have to vote prior to election day in order to obtain a postal ballot was abolished in 2008.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #684 on: April 20, 2019, 01:48:10 AM »

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).

By „early voting“ you mean that postal ballots have been sent to voters ?

As far as I know, there is no early voting in the US sense in Germany ...

I picked up a "postal" ballot at the respective district office, made a cross on it, and stuffed it into the "postal" ballot box standing there.

In a strict legal sense that was a postal vote too, although in Germany you have the option to personally retrieve your ballot during office hours and cast your vote with it on location, which is de facto a form of early voting.

Yeah, same like here.

Technically, it is still "postal voting", because you request a "postal ballot" - even though you can fill it out right there and drop it into the box.

I wonder how many people mail it back and how many just fill it out in their municipal office ...

A total of 29% of all ballots were cast via "postal vote" in the 2017 Bundestag election, a significant increase from the 9% we had back in 1990.

Official numbers regarding the share of ballots which are actually mailed in versus the ballots which are filled out on location don't exist.

An analysis of voting behavior in the 2002 Bundestag election (at that point 18% of all voters used a postal ballot one way or the other) came to the conclusion that in 42% of these cases the postal ballot was used as a form of early voting on location at the respective municipal office. I would expect that this share has increased since then, especially since the legal requirement to provide a formal reason why you have to vote prior to election day in order to obtain a postal ballot was abolished in 2008.

Here, only 7% of voters requested a postal ballot for the EU elections in 2014 and 14% for the federal election in 2017.

But I would assume that like in Germany, many are just going to their municipal office to fill it out and already cast the ballot there. It's also the better way to do so, because it would remove the uncertainty of the postal system (not that it is bad in Austria, but some postal ballots always get lost in the mail).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #685 on: April 20, 2019, 04:31:44 AM »

The FN (or RN) has officially joined Salvini's EAPN group of far-right-wingers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #686 on: April 20, 2019, 09:48:42 AM »

Record-high for the Lega in Italy:



Almost 2x the support of the FPÖ and they are usually considered one of the most successful far-right parties in Europe ...
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Diouf
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« Reply #687 on: April 20, 2019, 11:53:43 AM »
« Edited: April 20, 2019, 11:57:05 AM by Diouf »

David Borrelli has joined Europa+ and ALDE. Borrelli was the lead M5S MEP, and co-President of EFDD until early January 2017. I guess he must have been the primary negotiator in the botched attempt for M5S to join ALDE. He left M5S in early 2018, and joined the non-inscrits. He will candidate in next month's election for his new party in Italy's North-East region, where he was elected in 2014.
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Diouf
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« Reply #688 on: April 21, 2019, 08:33:00 AM »

Factum poll in Latvia. The filled stars indicate seats. Note Latvia uses the Sainte-Laguë method, not D'Hondt method. 2 seats for Social Democratic Harmony, whose list is led by party leader and Riga mayor Nils Usakovs. It sounds likely that he will take up the seat. EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis led Unity to 4 seats and almost half the seats in 2014. Since then the party largely melted down, but somehow ended up with the Premiership anyway as the smallest party in parliament. They look set to finish in 2nd place here, but narrowly missing out on an additional seat, so Dombrovskis could be elected alone this time. For the National Alliance, Roberts Zīle has been an MEP since Latvian entry in 2004 and looks set to continue. New Conservative Party, Development/For! and Union of Greens and Farmers all look fairly certain to win a seat. The newish left wing party, The Progressives, founded in 2017, only won 2.6% in the 2018 general election, but in this poll, they just manage to cross the 5% threshold and win a seat. The Latvian Russian Union won 3.2% in 2018, but is very close to winning a seat here. Who owns the state?, who won an impressive 14.2% in 2018, seems to have imploded after their chaotic government formation proces, and is only at 3% here.

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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
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« Reply #689 on: April 21, 2019, 11:15:12 AM »

When is deadline for all states?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #690 on: April 21, 2019, 11:17:30 AM »


What do you mean by "deadline" ?

PS: there are member countries, not states.
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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
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« Reply #691 on: April 21, 2019, 12:07:40 PM »

My bad. When all countries must introduce list od candidates?
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Mike88
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« Reply #692 on: April 21, 2019, 12:31:25 PM »

My bad. When all countries must introduce list od candidates?

I'm not quite sure, but i believe it's different in each country. For example, the deadline in Portugal was April 15, while in Austria, following Tender's posts, the deadline was April 13, i assume.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #693 on: April 21, 2019, 01:02:45 PM »

My bad. When all countries must introduce list of candidates?

I'm not quite sure, but i believe it's different in each country. For example, the deadline in Portugal was April 15, while in Austria, following Tender's posts, the deadline was April 13, i assume.

It was Friday, April 12th @ 5pm for Austria.

Not sure about other countries, it definitely varies. For Germany probably a long time ago, because postal ballots were already sent to voters who requested them.
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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
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« Reply #694 on: April 21, 2019, 01:18:27 PM »

I know that every country has different deadline. But, I am interested, when I can see all candidates.
Thanks
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #695 on: April 21, 2019, 01:33:41 PM »

I know that every country has different deadline. But, I am interested, when I can see all candidates.
Thanks

I guess you have to check for each country separately.

I'm not aware of a website which tracks candidates from all 28 countries ...
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #696 on: April 21, 2019, 02:24:15 PM »


What do you mean by "deadline" ?

PS: there are member countries, not states.

"State" has several meanings. State in the meaning of "sovereign state" is an older term than state as in "subdivision of a federation".

Quote from: Merriam-Webster
state

[...] a politically organized body of people usually occupying a definite territory
especially : one that is sovereign

[...] one of the constituent units of a nation having a federal government
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/state
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #697 on: April 23, 2019, 12:06:57 PM »

FPÖ out with their first, absurd, poster campaign (they actually use the English word „vote“ on their nationalist posters !):



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Mike88
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« Reply #698 on: April 23, 2019, 04:40:56 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2019, 04:51:07 PM by Mike88 »

Portugal: Campaign budget for Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition is creating some suspicions:

Parties have sent to the Constitutional Court their campaign budget estimates: what they will spend, and what they project to receive in donations and public money. The PS will spend 1,2 million euros, followed by the 890,000 euros of the PSD. CDU will spend 850,000 euros, BE 576,000 euros, CDS 312,000 euros. PAN 78,000 euros and the Alliance 350,000 euros. But, it's André Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition that is drawing attentions. His coalition expects to spend 500,000 euros, in which 400,000 euros will be donations.

The media started to suggest that it could be outside money, like from Steve Bannon. But, Ventura denies any foreign donations, and says he believes in the tide his movement is creating and that he will get the money.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #699 on: April 23, 2019, 11:25:03 PM »

Portugal: Campaign budget for Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition is creating some suspicions:

Parties have sent to the Constitutional Court their campaign budget estimates: what they will spend, and what they project to receive in donations and public money. The PS will spend 1,2 million euros, followed by the 890,000 euros of the PSD. CDU will spend 850,000 euros, BE 576,000 euros, CDS 312,000 euros. PAN 78,000 euros and the Alliance 350,000 euros. But, it's André Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition that is drawing attentions. His coalition expects to spend 500,000 euros, in which 400,000 euros will be donations.

The media started to suggest that it could be outside money, like from Steve Bannon. But, Ventura denies any foreign donations, and says he believes in the tide his movement is creating and that he will get the money.

That's not a lot. Here, even the small parties are spending 500.000 € for the campaign and the big parties ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ are allowed to spend up to 7 million € each.

Anyway, the Interior Ministry will announce the qualified parties today after having checked signatures and candidacies for validity. Then the ballots will be printed and they will be sent to voters starting next week.
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