European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Official results page for Austria (results will be posted on May 26, after 11pm, when Italy is the last country to close their polls. Austria's polls close at 5pm).

http://wahl19.bmi.gv.at

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Former Polish minister from Civic Platform Jan Rostowski decided to candidate in EP elections in the UK as ChUKs candidate (he was born in London and have UK citizenship). Well, I guess it wasn't kind of attention he expected to get. Although the criticism against him is a little bit far-fetched (and I say this as not the biggest fan of Civic Platform).

[Mike88]

Portugal: Campaign budget for Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition is creating some suspicions:

Parties have sent to the Constitutional Court their campaign budget estimates: what they will spend, and what they project to receive in donations and public money. The PS will spend 1,2 million euros, followed by the 890,000 euros of the PSD. CDU will spend 850,000 euros, BE 576,000 euros, CDS 312,000 euros. PAN 78,000 euros and the Alliance 350,000 euros. But, it's André Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition that is drawing attentions. His coalition expects to spend 500,000 euros, in which 400,000 euros will be donations.

The media started to suggest that it could be outside money, like from Steve Bannon. But, Ventura denies any foreign donations, and says he believes in the tide his movement is creating and that he will get the money.

That's not a lot. Here, even the small parties are spending 500.000 € for the campaign and the big parties ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ are allowed to spend up to 7 million € each.

Anyway, the Interior Ministry will announce the qualified parties today after having checked signatures and candidacies for validity. Then the ballots will be printed and they will be sent to voters starting next week.

The question is about how can a coalition by two minor parties, that together never polled above 1%, say it will spend half a million euros, in which 80% are donations. That's a huge amount for such minor parties, even though it has a lot of media coverage. It raises some questions.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the Austrian ballot (on the right side you can write-in a name or list number of a candidate for preference votes):

[Tender Branson]

After SPÖ and FPÖ, the ÖVP is now also out with their first poster campaign feat. the longtime MEP and frontrunner Othmar Karas and Chancellor Kurz's darling Karoline Edtstadler, currently State Secretary of the Interior and 2nd on the ÖVP's Europe list.

The ÖVP's core message is "experience" (Karas posters) and "excellence" (Edtstadler posters).

"Europe needs professionals."

The backside of the poster reads:

"You have to understand Europe to change it for the better."

"Europe needs excellence."

The backside of the poster reads:

"You have to change Europe to preserve it."

And a neutral one:

"Europe needs Power. We are Europe. Let's make it better. Let's shape Europe."

[Tender Branson]

The liberal NEOS is also out with a 1st poster campaign:





Left poster:

"Fix it, instead of Brexit. Europe - let's make something out of it."

Center poster:

"Europe - let's make something out of it."

Right poster:

"So, guys: Europe - let's make something out of it."

---

Link to the SPÖ posters.

Link to the FPÖ posters.

Link to the Green posters.

[Tender Branson]

KPÖ+ (Communist Party) election posters:

"Be a man, be a woman, be whatever you want to be. Vote 100% social, instead of voting for cheap slogans."

"Winter has come." (pictured is Austria's FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl)

"Despite having a hangover ... go and vote !"

Not bad.

[DavidB.]

KPÖ+ (Communist Party) election posters:

Clown world.

[Diouf]

A new Danish EP poll by Greens for Børsen. A poll much closer to national polls than most of the other EP polls. A much stronger Social Democrat showing, and a government meltdown. Bizarrely, they included an option "Other parties" in the poll despite no other parties running. Since the 3, perhaps soon 4 parties, running in the general election but not in the EP election are all centre-right to right wing, this of course hurts the right wing parties somewhat.

Social Democrats 27.2% 4 seats
SPP 7.5% 1 seat

Liberals 16.2% 3 seats
Conservatives 3.8% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 1.6% 0 seats

DPP 16.8% 2 seats

Red-Green Alliance 6.9% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 5.8% 1 seat

Social Liberals 9.4% 1 seats (2 seats if UK leave)
Alternative 2.5% 0 seats.

Other parties 2.3%

[Diouf]

Tonight was the first TV debate between the ten lead candidates for the parties running in the EP elections. And the state broadcaster DR published an Epinion poll alongside it.


Left to right: Jeppe Kofod (Social Democrats), Mette Bock (Liberal Alliance), Peter Kofod (DPP), Margrethe Auken (SPP), Nikolaj Villumsen (Red-Green Alliance), Rasmus Nordqvist (Alternative), Rina Ronja Kari (People's Movement against EU), Pernille Weiss (Conservatives), Morten Helveg Petersen (Social Liberals), Morten Løkkegaard (Liberals).

Social Democrats 25.7% 4 seats
SPP 7.2% 1 seat

Liberals 18.4% 3 seats
Conservatives 4.7% 0 seats (1 seat if UK leave)
Liberal Alliance 2.8% 0 seats

DPP 15.9% 2 seats

Red-Green Alliance 7.1% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 6.5% 1 seat

Social Liberals 8.9% 1 seat
Alternative 2.7% 0 seats

[Diouf]

ALDE making way for a new Romanian member, it seems. Ponta's new PRO party has joined EDP, but this could make it easier for them to join the ALDE group. The 2020 Alliance (USR + PLUS) might also have a clearer path to join that group now.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1121397943351644160

[Tender Branson]

The Bertelsmann Stiftung will be out with a major survey of 12 EU countries today, surveying more than 24.000 people and the motives for voting in the EU elections.

https://www.welt.de/newsticker/news1/article192483223/Umfragen-Umfrage-Europaeer-koennten-Europawahl-fuer-Denkzettel-nutzen.html

The preliminary write-up shows that voters of the far-left and far-right are more motivated to vote than the voters of the centrist establishment parties and will use the election as a protest vote. I don't know if they also polled the actual election in each of the 12 countries.

[Andrea]

 France (Ifop-Fiducial rolling poll for Paris Match; 25th april)

République en marche  22.5%
Rassemblement national  21%
Les Républicains   15%
France insoumise  9%
Greens 8.5%
Socialists 6%
Debout la France   4.0%
Génération.s   3%
Gilets Jaunes 2%
Les Patriotes 2.0%
Communists 2%
UDI 1.5%
Lutte ouvrière 1%
UPR 1%

[Mike88]

Portugal: New polls.

Aximage poll for Correio da Manhã/Jornal de Negócios:

Vote share %:

31.7% PS (-1.9), 8/9 seats
29.0% PSD (-2.1), 7/8
  8.4% CDU (-1.0), 2
  8.3% BE (+0.3), 2
  7.7% CDS (+0.9), 1/2
  1.8% ENOUGH! (new), 0
  1.3% PAN (nc), 0
  1.3% Alliance (nc), 0
  7.0% Others/Invalid
  3.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 13 and 16 April 2019. Polled 612 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

30.3% PS, 7/8 seats
28.0% PSD, 7/8
11.3% BE, 2/3
  7.6% CDS, 2
  6.5% CDU, 1
  1.7% PDR, 0
14.6% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 3 and 13 April 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Diouf]

One of the great political dynasties of Europe could provide another MEP:

A third descendant of Italy’s long-time fascist dictator Benito Mussolini is entering the political arena.

Caio Giulio Cesare Mussolini — Mussolini’s great-grandson, whose name is taken from one of ancient Rome’s most famous rulers — is running as a candidate in European elections for the far-right Brothers of Italy Party.

Party leader Giorgia Meloni announced Mussolini’s candidacy over the weekend. His political ambitions follow those of his second cousins, Alessandra Mussolini, an EU parliamentarian for Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, and Rachele Mussolini, a Rome city council member associated with Brothers of Italy.

Caio Mussolini, 51, was a naval officer for 15 years, then an executive in Italy’s largest defense contractor Finmeccanica before turning to politics.

“He is a professional, a serviceman, a patriot,” Meloni said against the backdrop of the multi-arched facade of the Palace of Italian Civilization that was built by Benito Mussolini and known to modern-day Romans as the “Squared Colosseum.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/third-mussolini-descendant-enters-italian-political-arena/?fbclid=IwAR3v80BiPmDuySl3YxLFO1KeOC2M2KgcO0MyatKBM4ac2A3-gvAQPRH-nns

[Diouf]

Inizio for Aftonbladet. The Swedish threshold is 4%

Social Democrats 24.9% 5 seats
Sweden Democrats 17.4% 4 seats
Moderates 15.9% 3 seats (4 seats if UK leave)
Centre Party 9.4% 2 seats
Christian Democrats 9.0% 2 seats
Green Party 8.7% 2 seats
Left Party 7.6% 2 seats
Liberals 3.7% 0 seats
Feminist Initiative 1.4% 0 seats
Others 1.9% 0 seats

[Diouf]

YouGov poll of Scotland

SNP 40% 3/4 seats
Labour 14% 1 seat
Brexit Party 13% 1 seat
Conservatives 10% 0/1 seat
Greens 7% 0 seats
Lib Dem 6% 0 seats
Change UK 6% 0 seats
UKIP 3% 0 seats

[YL]

All the candidate lists in the UK have now been published.

In Great Britain, 7 parties are standing in all regions: Change UK - The Independent Group; the Conservatives; the Greens; Labour; the Lib Dems; The Brexit Party; UKIP.  The SNP and Plaid Cymru are obviously standing in Scotland and Wales respectively.

The English Democrats are standing in the East of England, North West England, South West England and Yorkshire & the Humber.  The UK EU Party, a newly registered party, are standing in London, the North West and the South East.  The Yorkshire Party, regionalists with no particular position on the EU, are standing in Yorkshire & the Humber; the Animal Welfare Party and the Women's Equality Party are standing in London; the World Socialist Movement are standing in the South East (lol); the Independent Network (not to be confused with The Independent Group) are standing in the East Midlands.

There are also a few Independents separate from the party lists.  Several of them are calling themselves Climate & Ecological Emergency Independents and are associated with Extinction Rebellion; seven of them are standing separately (so effectively against each other as well as everybody else) in London and two in the South West, leading to speculation that they don't understand the electoral system.  Alt-right activist "Tommy Robinson" is standing in the North West.

[YL]

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, which uses STV, there are 11 candidates:

Jim Allister - Traditional Unionist Voice
Martina Anderson - Sinn Féin
Clare Bailey - Green
Amandeep Bhogal - Conservative
Diane Dodds - DUP
Colum Eastwood - SDLP
Robert Hill - UKIP
Danny Kennedy - UUP
Naomi Long - Alliance
Neil McCann - Independent
Jane Morrice - no description

Morrice was associated with the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition in their day.

There are three seats.  Anderson, Dodds and Kennedy are favourites, but if Unionist turnout falters or transfers from cross-community parties favour the SDLP more than usual Eastwood might have an outside chance.

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll by "Market" for the "Standard" newspaper (method: mixed-mode phone+internet, n=803 people aged 16+, April 12-15:

30% ÖVP (+3.0%)
28% SPÖ (+3.9%)
20% FPÖ (+0.3%)
  9% NEOS (+0.9%)
  8% Greens (-6.5%)
  2% Europe NOW (+2.0%)
  3% KPÖ+ / invalid (+3.0%)

Projected turnout: 48% (+2.6%)

"Are things in the EU moving in the right or wrong direction ?"

21% right
61% wrong

https://derstandard.at/2000101731473/Nur-jeder-Fuenfte-sieht-Entwicklung-der-EU-derzeit-positiv

[Andrea]

List of candidates for Italy published by Interior Ministry

https://dait.interno.gov.it/elezioni/trasparenza/europee2019

(you have to click on "liste e candidati", then select parties and area)

Mind you, in Italy we have open lists. So the order of appearance is not decisive (even if important as heads of lists should have a bonus).

PD

Incumbents standing again (20): Brando Benifei (NW), Mercedes Bresso (NW), Patrizia Toia (NW), Daniele Viotti (NW), Paolo de Castro (NE), Isabella de Monte (NE), Cecile Kyenge (NE), Simona Bonafè (Central), David Sassoli (Central), Roberto Gualtieri (Central), Nicola Danti (Central), Roberto Gualtieri (Central), Nicola Caputo (South), Andrea Cozzolino (South), Pina Picierno (South), Elena Gentile (South), Giuseppe Ferrando (South), Massino Paolucci (South), Caterina Chinnici (Islands), Michela Giuffrida (Islands)

Incumbents not standing again (10): Renata Briano (NW), Luigi Morgano (NW), Alessia Mosca (NW), Pierantonio Panzeri (NW), Flavio Zanonato (NE), Damiano Zoffoli (NE), Goffredo Bettini (Central), Silvia Costa (Central), Enrico Gasbarra (Central) , Roberto Soru (Islands),


Forza Italia


Standing again (9): Laura Comi (NW), Massimiliano Salini (NW), Antonio Tajani (Central), Lorenzo Cesa (South), Barbara Matera (South), Fulvio Martusciello (South), Aldo Patriciello (South), Alessandra Mussolini (serving for Central, standing in South), Salvatore Cicu (Islands),

Not standing again (2): Alberto Cirio (NW), Giovanni La Via (Islands)

5 stars


Standing again (12): Tiziana Beghin (NW), Eleonora Evi (NW), Marzo Zullo (NE), Laura Agea (Central), Fabio Castaldo (Central), Dario Tamburrano (Central), Isabella Adinolfi (South), Daniela Aiuto (South), Rosa d'Amato (South), Laura Ferrara (South), Piernicola Piedicini (South), Ignazio Corrao (Islands)


Lega

Standing again (4): Mara Bizzotto (NE), Angelo Ciocca (NE), Danilo Lancini (NW), Marco Zanni (NW)

Not standing (2): Mario Borghezio (NW), Giancarlo Scott (NE)


Fratelli d'Italia (elected as Forza Italia)

Incumbents standing (3): Raffaele Fitto (South), Elisabetta Gardini (NE), Stefano Maullo (NW)

Not standing (2): Remo Sernagiotto (NE), Innocenzo Leontini

+Europe

Standing again: David Borrelli (NE, elected as M5S)

Green Europe

Standing again: Marco Affronte (NE, elected as M5S)

Various on the Left:

Standing agai (1)n: Eleonora Forenza (South, elected in the Tsipras-Other Europe list, now standing for The Left),

Incumbents not standing again (4): Sergio Cofferati (NW, elected as PD), Elli Schlein (NE, elected as PD), Curzio Maltese (NW,  Tsipras-Other Europe list), Barbara Spinelli (Central, Tsipras-Other Europe list)

SVP

Re-Standing: Herbert Dorffmann (NE)

Others:

Not standing: Giulia Moi (Islands, elected as M5S),  Marco Valli (NW, elected as M5S).

[Diouf]

Based on voting patterns, M5S was apparently closest to the Green group in this term, but I guess it is unlikely to happen. If they can find other "free souls", they would prefer their own group, but not sure that's superlikely either.

https://twitter.com/mvanhulten/status/1120645535197741057

[beesley]

After SPÖ and FPÖ, the ÖVP is now also out with their first poster campaign feat. the longtime MEP and frontrunner Othmar Karas and Chancellor Kurz's darling Karoline Edtstadler, currently State Secretary of the Interior and 2nd on the ÖVP's Europe list.

The ÖVP's core message is "experience" (Karas posters) and "excellence" (Edtstadler posters).

"Europe needs professionals."

The backside of the poster reads:

"You have to understand Europe to change it for the better."

"Europe needs excellence."

The backside of the poster reads:

"You have to change Europe to preserve it."

And a neutral one:

"Europe needs Power. We are Europe. Let's make it better. Let's shape Europe."

Don't know about you guys, but I've always thought that Austria has amazing election posters.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

After SPÖ and FPÖ, the ÖVP is now also out with their first poster campaign feat. the longtime MEP and frontrunner Othmar Karas and Chancellor Kurz's darling Karoline Edtstadler, currently State Secretary of the Interior and 2nd on the ÖVP's Europe list.

Don't know about you guys, but I've always thought that Austria has amazing election posters.

Yeah, they are very neat and aesthetically pleasing. I wish Polish political scene will learn one day how to prepare nice electoral poster (and Poland have rich poster-designing traditions so it is not impossible).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So we have now full and final list of electoral lists in Poland. New record, in 2019 there will be only 6 lists as for the country level.

1. Konfederacja (Korwin [self explanatory], Ruch Narodowy [nationalists], Skuteczni [Kukiz rapper-based spin-off], Pobudka [Grzegorz Braun organisation, Catholic monarchists], Federacja dla Rzeczypospolitej [beer magnate, ex-Kukiz Marek Jakubiak party, conlib] and some more minor political movements).

2. Wiosna (social-liberal, as for the candidates there are some soc-dem people, but there are also some unreformed 90s liberals so it not really coherent group of peoples) - as for the faction in EP they have contacts with S&D.

3. Koalicja Europejska (big tent coalition created mainly as vessel for fight against PiS which include: Platforma Obywatelska, Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej, Nowoczesna and Zieloni

4. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (in coalition with Porozumienie and Solidarna Polska, and some minor minors which probably will get nothing)

5. Lewica Razem (Partia Razem, Unia Pracy [currently they have one MEP but he decided to retire], Ruch Sprawiedliwości Społecznej)

6. Kukiz’15 (well, Kukiz apparently still exists, they have coalition with Prawica Rzeczpospolitej which is member of ECPM so europarty of Dutch SGP and CU)


and some lists in few districts which have no chances go get more than 1% in the elections so no one cares about them, mainly right-wing political plankton.