European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[DavidB.]

1. Konfederacja (Korwin [self explanatory], Ruch Narodowy [nationalists], Skuteczni [Kukiz rapper-based spin-off], Pobudka [Grzegorz Braun organisation, Catholic monarchists], Federacja dla Rzeczypospolitej [beer magnate, ex-Kukiz Marek Jakubiak party, conlib] and some more minor political movements).

Would the far-right Confederacy list split up after the election or remain one parliamentary group? Do you think they'd be likely to join the EAPN alliance?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

1. Konfederacja (Korwin [self explanatory], Ruch Narodowy [nationalists], Skuteczni [Kukiz rapper-based spin-off], Pobudka [Grzegorz Braun organisation, Catholic monarchists], Federacja dla Rzeczypospolitej [beer magnate, ex-Kukiz Marek Jakubiak party, conlib] and some more minor political movements).

Would the far-right Confederacy list split up after the election or remain one parliamentary group? Do you think they'd be likely to join the EAPN alliance?

They probably intend to keep going and run together in the parliamentary elections as well, but the project is full of dramatic personalities who love to fall out so I wouldn't be surprised if it fell apart before then. As for your second question, it's probably more a question of whether EAPN will have them seeing as Korwin ended up being too controversial for ENF in 2014 and the Confederation overall is honestly more extreme.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

1. Konfederacja (Korwin [self explanatory], Ruch Narodowy [nationalists], Skuteczni [Kukiz rapper-based spin-off], Pobudka [Grzegorz Braun organisation, Catholic monarchists], Federacja dla Rzeczypospolitej [beer magnate, ex-Kukiz Marek Jakubiak party, conlib] and some more minor political movements).

Would the far-right Confederacy list split up after the election or remain one parliamentary group? Do you think they'd be likely to join the EAPN alliance?

They probably intend to keep going and run together in the parliamentary elections as well, but the project is full of dramatic personalities who love to fall out so I wouldn't be surprised if it fell apart before then. As for your second question, it's probably more a question of whether EAPN will have them seeing as Korwin ended up being too controversial for ENF in 2014 and the Confederation overall is honestly more extreme.

Well, in my opinion they probably will end up in EAPN. Nationalists and korwinists have some major differences, but on European Parliament level those differences (economics, religion) are less relevant than what is similar between them (anti-federalism, anti-LGBT, anti-Jewish, pro-Russian). As for their future much depends on whom will enter the EP. For example Grzegorz Brown or Kaja Godek (pro-life NGO leader) who might be too weird even for EAPN. And obviously Heat is right -egos might be too big for them to survive together. Oh, and one funny thing: Jean-Marie Le Pen sent official message for Konfederacja launching greeting them.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I also got the impression that Korwin is on the less extreme side of this alliance. From what I gathered (which isn't much, so correct me if I'm wrong) Braun and the Ruch Narodowy seem especially (and especially explicitly, which may be the main issue for EAPN here) antisemitic, which is kind of a dealbreaker these days. I didn't get the impression that Korwin is all that antisemitic though; is he?

[Tender Branson]

As the ballots are printed and sent to voters next week, the candidate lists of the 7 parties on the ballot have also been posted on the Interior Ministry page.

ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens and NEOS all have a 50% women share among their Top-10 candidates.

KPÖ+ and Europe NOW (they only have 8 candidates in total) have more women than men on their Top-10 list.

Here are the candidates (purple candidates are current Members of the EU Parliament already):

ÖVP

  1. Karas Othmar (*1957)
  2. Edtstadler Karoline (*1981)
  3. Winzig Angelika (*1963)
  4. Schmiedtbauer Simone (*1974)
  5. Mandl Lukas (*1979)
  6. Pirchner Wolfram (*1958)
  7. Sagartz Christian (*1981)
  8. Thaler Barbara (*1982)
  9. Zoll Christian (*1993)
10. Wolf-Schöffmann Claudia (*1969)

SPÖ

  1. Schieder Andreas (*1969)
  2. Regner Evelyn (*1966)
  3. Sidl Günther (*1975)
  4. Vollath Bettina (*1962)
  5. Heide Hannes (*1966)
  6. Herr Julia (*1992)
  7. Dax Christian (*1988)
  8. Mösl Stefanie (*1985)
  9. Kaiser Luca (*1994)
10. Muigg Theresa (*1984)

FPÖ

  1. Vilimsky Harald (*1966)
  2. Mayer Georg (*1973)
  3. Steger Petra (*1987)
  4. Haider Roman (*1967)
  5. Schuster Vesna (*1974)
  6. Dieringer-Granza Elisabeth (*1974)
  7. Graf Josef (*1970)
  8. Kurz Maximilian (*1995)
  9. Kerbleder Andrea (*1976)
10. Berger Karin (*1963)

Greens

  1. Kogler Werner (*1961)
  2. Wiener Sarah (*1962)
  3. Vana Monika (*1969)
  4. Waitz Thomas (*1973)
  5. Voglauer Olga (*1980)
  6. Schobesberger Thomas (*1991)
  7. Bergauer Bettina (*1962)
  8. Vetter Simon (*1984)
  9. Kayer Mirjam Lena (*1996)
10. Tschebul Florian (*1997)

NEOS

  1. Gamon Claudia (*1988)
  2. Feldinger Karin (*1975)
  3. Windberger Stefan (*1989)
  4. Zotti Stefan (*1976)
  5. Tsiklauri Nini (*1992)
  6. Margreiter Johannes (*1958)
  7. Reiter Teresa (*1988)
  8. Schneider Isak (*1976)
  9. Berry Peter (*1991)
10. Reichenhauser Julia (*1996)

KPÖ+

  1. Anastasiou Aikaterini (*1983)
  2. Klaus Melina (*1968)
  3. Tamas Cristina-Annamaria (*1968)
  4. Zach Dietmar (*1965)
  5. Erdődi Katalin (*1980)
  6. Cortés Barbado Luis (*1986)
  7. Grünn Gerlinde (*1968)
  8. Kurt Cevdet (*1970)
  9. Hammer Heidelinde (*1973)
10. Janson Sven (*1985)

Europe NOW

  1. Voggenhuber Johannes (*1950)
  2. Krainer Marion (*1963)
  3. Faller Gabriele (*1970)
  4. Gaupmann Sandra (*1972)
  5. Huber Thomas (*1961)
  6. Ratheiser Theresa Lisa (*1993)
  7. Beclin Barbara (*1968)
  8. Dachler Marlies (*1988)

---

The big parties ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ will get 4-7 seats and Greens, NEOS either 1-2 seats. Current polling shows that KPÖ+ and Europe NOW will get no seats.

The ÖVP uses a strict internal preference vote system though, so if for example the 10th on their list gets more preference votes than those listed ahead of that candidate, this candidate will become an MEP.

[Tender Branson]

Just noticed that the liberal NEOS has Nini Tsiklauri on their list as 5th.

Tsiklauri is a former actress on the German kids television channel KIKA, with Georgian roots.

That would be like Miley Cyrus running for office ...

(... but for her to be elected to the EU parliament, NEOS would need some 20-25% of the vote, which is of course impossible).

 

[bigic]

(... but for her to be elected to the EU parliament, NEOS would need some 20-25% of the vote, which is of course impossible).

Or enough preference votes?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Yeah, I also got the impression that Korwin is on the less extreme side of this alliance. From what I gathered (which isn't much, so correct me if I'm wrong) Braun and the Ruch Narodowy seem especially (and especially explicitly, which may be the main issue for EAPN here) antisemitic, which is kind of a dealbreaker these days. I didn't get the impression that Korwin is all that antisemitic though; is he?

As for the Korwin in person himself he is rather, and at least he was pro-Israeli (because recently he tend to be more critical, in 60s he was staunchly pro-Israeli). But it cannot be said for ordinary members or voters, especially recently.

Even few days ago Sławomir Mentzen, list leader in Gdańsk district said that five-point program (follow-up to so called "Piątka Kaczyńskiego", "Kaczyński's Five" - this year new list of things PiS want to realize ad hoc before elections) of Konfederacja: "we do not want Jews, homosexualists, abortion, taxes and the EU". And korwinists are increasingly anti-semitic due to PiS issues with Israel since last year and issue of Jewish/Israeli claims on property in Poland which according to them Trump and International Jewry™ want to impose on Poland. For them this is a chance to steal some voters from PiS, at least this is the narrative "PiS are American and Jewish puppets the same way PO is German puppet. Only we, the korwinists and nationalists are real Polish Poles who care about Polish Interest".

Big part of Korwin electorate is not really well formed ideologically. Most of them did not vote on nationalists in past because of the economic issues but as for the other issues they are similar. The more ideological part of Korwin electorate, namely, fanatically pro-market conservative libertarians usually were pro-Israeli but they never were absolute majority in Korwin electorate.

[Former President tack50]

Wait, does that mean Korwin-Mikke will be (back) in the EU parliament? Can't wait to listen to his controversial statements again, particularly against some woman MEP from PSOE (they seem to be arch-enemies or something lol)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Wait, does that mean Korwin-Mikke will be (back) in the EU parliament? Can't wait to listen to his controversial statements again, particularly against some woman MEP from PSOE (they seem to be arch-enemies or something lol)

Well, he is on the last place on the list so he probably do not want to go back to European Parliament but probably voters will stil vote on Korwin and he will get from the last place, if in his electoral district Konfederacja will have enough votes.

[Tender Branson]

(... but for her to be elected to the EU parliament, NEOS would need some 20-25% of the vote, which is of course impossible).

Or enough preference votes?

That is correct, but still very unrealistic.

For someone to be moved up the list, you need enough preference votes from 5% of the party list vote.

In the 2014 election, NEOS got 230.000 votes - so she would need ca. 12.000 preference votes this time. Which is a lot. In the 2014 EU election, only 7 candidates got more than 10.000 preference votes: 2x ÖVP, 2x SPÖ and the frontrunners from FPÖ, Greens and NEOS.

And most candidates from parties other than from the ÖVP are not really running a preference vote campaign. Only the ÖVP has instructed their candidates to run a fierce, competetive PV campaign to energize their base.

In theory, the PV system would be great for voters to select their preferred candidates, but neither are voters informed enough about that process, nor do they really care about the candidates, nor do the parties really enforce the process ...

[Diouf]

YouGov newest has voters splitting towards the poles. 3 Hard Remain parties on 27%, 2 Hard Brexit parties on 33%. Conservative down on 13%, so nearing the territory, where they could miss out on seats in several constituencies.

BREX 28%
LAB 22%
CON 13%
CHUK 10%
GRN 10%
LD 7%
UKIP 5%
Others 6%

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ seems to have a mobilisation problem with their base, as seen in the latest poll where they dropped to 20%.



Therefore, both Strache and Hofer are ramping up their campaigning by using some extremist language in their weekend newspaper interviews, which is very similar to the Identitarians:

Strache:

"The FPÖ continues the way forward for our home country Austria, the fight against population exchange, consistently, as the people expect from us."

When confronted with the term "population exchange" being a Neo-Nazi term, Strache says:

"That's a concept of reality. We do not want to become a minority in our own homeland. That is legitimate and honest and deeply democratic. Only where someone tries to enforce his political goals by force, it is right-wing extremism, which of course has no place in a democracy."

Norbert Hofer about the recent "unique" cases of racism/antisemitism in the FPÖ:

"We have completely other concerns right now than gaffes/"unique" cases of party members: that Austria's excessive immigration makes it a Muslim-majority country."

https://orf.at/#/stories/3120327

[CumbrianLefty]

YouGov newest has voters splitting towards the poles. 3 Hard Remain parties on 27%, 2 Hard Brexit parties on 33%. Conservative down on 13%, so nearing the territory, where they could miss out on seats in several constituencies.

BREX 28%
LAB 22%
CON 13%
CHUK 10%
GRN 10%
LD 7%
UKIP 5%
Others 6%

Its yet another push poll that YouGov have colluded in.

Two other surveys out yesterday that were *not* push polls have BP and Lab level at 27/28%, and ChUK *much* lower (its their comedy score in this one that really gives it away)

[DavidB.]

When confronted with the term "population exchange" being a Neo-Nazi term, Strache says:

"That's a concept of reality. We do not want to become a minority in our own homeland. That is legitimate and honest and deeply democratic. Only where someone tries to enforce his political goals by force, it is right-wing extremism, which of course has no place in a democracy."

Sure, just a far-right conspiracy theory. Nothing to see here: https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5495901/Wiener-Schulen_51-Prozent-haben-nicht-Deutsch-als-Umgangssprache.

[Mike88]

Portugal: CDS main candidate Nuno Melo - "Vox isn't a far-right party, it's just a normal rightwing party".

Nuno Melo, CDS main candidate for the EP elections, has made a controversial statement this weekend. In an interview to Lusa agency, Melo said that "Vox isn't a far-right party, it's just a normal rightwing party", that Vox is to PP what the Alliance is to the PSD and that he's open to integrate Vox in the EPP, the same European party the PSD and CDS are part of. He adds that people who say the Vox is far-right, should read its manifesto.

Well, Melo' shoes must be made from chocolate, because he has just put his foot in his mouth...

[DavidB.]

As if Vox want to be in the EPP. It's going to be ECR or EAPN.

[Mike88]

As if Vox want to be in the EPP. It's going to be ECR or EAPN.

Exactly. Everything he said makes no sense. And it goes against everything Assunção Cristas is trying to do: being the a moderate alternative to Costa. You can bet that the PSD is gloating right now, and has entered in full Mr Burns mode "Excellent..."

[CumbrianLefty]

When confronted with the term "population exchange" being a Neo-Nazi term, Strache says:

"That's a concept of reality. We do not want to become a minority in our own homeland. That is legitimate and honest and deeply democratic. Only where someone tries to enforce his political goals by force, it is right-wing extremism, which of course has no place in a democracy."

Sure, just a far-right conspiracy theory. Nothing to see here: https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5495901/Wiener-Schulen_51-Prozent-haben-nicht-Deutsch-als-Umgangssprache.

Yes, it is a far right conspiracy theory.

Next!

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's worth noting that CHUK is up a couple of points in all recent polls, despite their launch having been universally agreed to be deeply unimpressive. Which suggests that a) there's still a good chance of vote-splitting amongst the pro-remain parties leading to them missing out on seats and b) most of the country still isn't paying much attention.

[Tender Branson]

Research Affairs has released crosstabs for various subgroups from their latest EU poll:



ÖVP+FPÖ are more popular with men, SPÖ+Greens with women.

ÖVP is quite popular with retired people, while the FPÖ does best with the working-age crowd. Greens and NEOS do best with young voters.

Salzburg is the state most loyal to the current ÖVP+FPÖ government, Vienna is the most leftist state.

The FPÖ-share drops to just 3% among those with a university degree.

[Zinneke]

It's worth noting that CHUK is up a couple of points in all recent polls, despite their launch having been universally agreed to be deeply unimpressive. Which suggests that a) there's still a good chance of vote-splitting amongst the pro-remain parties leading to them missing out on seats and b) most of the country still isn't paying much attention.

Welcome to the forum.

Is there a risk of Remain parties blocking each other from a lot of seats? I know this is already the case in places like Northern Ireland

[Diouf]

It's worth noting that CHUK is up a couple of points in all recent polls, despite their launch having been universally agreed to be deeply unimpressive. Which suggests that a) there's still a good chance of vote-splitting amongst the pro-remain parties leading to them missing out on seats and b) most of the country still isn't paying much attention.

Welcome to the forum.

Is there a risk of Remain parties blocking each other from a lot of seats? I know this is already the case in places like Northern Ireland

Since Northern Ireland uses STV, that should basically be the only part of the UK where parties are not really blocking each other in the European elections. In many other constituencies, it is likely that none of the 3 smaller Remain parties end up without seats. Their vote is probably concentrated a bit in London and the South, which can help somewhat. The question is of course whether they should have allied? Change UK does not seem to agree on a whole lot apart from opposition to Brexit, so they were perhaps the keenest on a apolitical anti-Brexit alliance (a Brexit Party opposite). But Lib Dems and Greens are real parties with real policies (who differ quite a lot), so I think it makes sense for them to continue with their own identities.
If, as looks very likely, the Brexit Party wins the most votes and most seats, but a majority of those voting prefers Remain, then you would of course think that most English media would focus on the former. It might be an almost impossible job, but the three parties should probably do what they can to lead attention on the latter now they have decided not to ally.

[Zinneke]

It's worth noting that CHUK is up a couple of points in all recent polls, despite their launch having been universally agreed to be deeply unimpressive. Which suggests that a) there's still a good chance of vote-splitting amongst the pro-remain parties leading to them missing out on seats and b) most of the country still isn't paying much attention.

Welcome to the forum.

Is there a risk of Remain parties blocking each other from a lot of seats? I know this is already the case in places like Northern Ireland

Since Northern Ireland uses STV, that should basically be the only part of the UK where parties are not really blocking each other in the European elections.

Given there are 3 seats and that the first 2 are essentially SF-DUP lockdowns, the remainers could still get in each others way for the 3rd and UUP slip in. Otherwise Alliance and SDLP wouldn't be deployed such heavy hitters and would be comfortably looking at beating the UUP, although in the SDLP's case its probably their leader's last throw of the dice before he is deposed.

The question is of course whether they should have allied? Change UK does not seem to agree on a whole lot apart from opposition to Brexit, so they were perhaps the keenest on a apolitical anti-Brexit alliance (a Brexit Party opposite). But Lib Dems and Greens are real parties with real policies (who differ quite a lot), so I think it makes sense for them to continue with their own identities.

Oh yeah even I personally think that even "CHUK" shouldn't go into an electoral pact with the LibDems and especially not the Greens, basically because they need to test their overall reach with their current message before a potential GE, and the proportional EP vote (that may or may not be legislation-wise insignificant) is a great way to do that. 

It will be interesting though if UKIP slip in in a couple of areas because CHUK and Greens combined didn't reach the threshold when I imagine some of those voters are Remain Labour who want to send a message to Corbyn. They will have done so anyway when the national results are presented, but does not bode well for the EP itself...

[DavidB.]

Ads for the Dutch parties have now been put up - in the cities the government does this, in a Dutch, orderly manner. Apparently they don't want posters everywhere.