European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[DavidB.]

To me this just seems like a way to keep the NPD out. Which I find to be a laudable goal in itself, but I don't think this kind of legislation should be used to reach it.

Initially they wanted it for member states with 29 seats or more, but NL has prevented this as it would affect "normal" parties here (but, come to think of it, also DENK..). I personally think it would actually be good to have a threshold for the Netherlands in EP elections (preferably 5%), because Dutch parties yield too little influence in their EP groups due to the fragmentation in the Netherlands, which will only get worse and cause like 10 parties to have one or a few seats.

[parochial boy]

Fair enough for the Netherlands I guess - but really this exactly the sort of mind-boggling stupidity that just gives ammunition to eurosceptics.

If people don't take the European parliament elections seriously, there is a reason for that, and finding ways to tell people they are voting "wrong" is only going to be counterproductive.

Like, the most legitimate complain people have about the EU is that it isn't democratic enough, why not do something about that?

[Diouf]

Fair enough for the Netherlands I guess - but really this exactly the sort of mind-boggling stupidity that just gives ammunition to eurosceptics.

If people don't take the European parliament elections seriously, there is a reason for that, and finding ways to tell people they are voting "wrong" is only going to be counterproductive.

I'm guessing this is hardly gonna be a big issue, and I don't know why Eurosceptics should be particularly incensed. E.g. in Germany, I guess this would favour AfD a bit if someone vote for them instead of NPD or other smaller parties. I generally think election systems should be as fair and proportional as possible, but if they keep the threshold in the lower band (1-3%), it is not a giant problem, I think. My preferred option in Germany would probably be to just shift to D'Hondt, which I think would raise the threshold to around 1%.

Like, the most legitimate complain people have about the EU is that it isn't democratic enough, why not do something about that?

Perhaps because people disagree about what democracy is? Some think the EP should get more and more powers, so as to resemble a nation state democracy with a strong parliament. Others think the most democratic would be to abolish the EP and let all decisions be taken in the Council since ministers are representatives of national elections with higher turnout, interest and therefore democratic legitimacy.

[parochial boy]

Fair enough for the Netherlands I guess - but really this exactly the sort of mind-boggling stupidity that just gives ammunition to eurosceptics.

If people don't take the European parliament elections seriously, there is a reason for that, and finding ways to tell people they are voting "wrong" is only going to be counterproductive.

I'm guessing this is hardly gonna be a big issue, and I don't know why Eurosceptics should be particularly incensed. E.g. in Germany, I guess this would favour AfD a bit if someone vote for them instead of NPD or other smaller parties. I generally think election systems should be as fair and proportional as possible, but if they keep the threshold in the lower band (1-3%), it is not a giant problem, I think. My preferred option in Germany would probably be to just shift to D'Hondt, which I think would raise the threshold to around 1%.

Like, the most legitimate complain people have about the EU is that it isn't democratic enough, why not do something about that?

Perhaps because people disagree about what democracy is? Some think the EP should get more and more powers, so as to resemble a nation state democracy with a strong parliament. Others think the most democratic would be to abolish the EP and let all decisions be taken in the Council since ministers are representatives of national elections with higher turnout, interest and therefore democratic legitimacy.

It's the optics really, in so far as it looks like, not so much a power grab as the council telling voters off for choosing fringe parties. I absolutely agree that it won't be a news story that anyone pays attention to, but it could help to drive a certain narrative about the EU.

As for disagreeing about what democracy is, I've made the same argument as you about the council of ministers in the past - but it doesn't really hold with people, as it is just a bit too indirect as a form of representation (and of course, removes non-government parties from the picture).

[EPG]

Fair enough for the Netherlands I guess - but really this exactly the sort of mind-boggling stupidity that just gives ammunition to eurosceptics.

If people don't take the European parliament elections seriously, there is a reason for that, and finding ways to tell people they are voting "wrong" is only going to be counterproductive.

Like, the most legitimate complain people have about the EU is that it isn't democratic enough, why not do something about that?

1. Yes. 2. Yes, but "they are wrong" is also likely to be what European Parliament members sincerely think. Someone elected, like, 4th on a closed list in a big country, who may genuinely never have to meet normal people. 3. Because more MEPs and power for Germany and France will be popular nowhere else.

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/985650610069495808

[EPG]

If LREM wins 20 seats, that's not going to be enough to dictate what happens as a member of ALDE, especially considering Germany's FDP ought to win at least 8 seats, to form the centre of a Eurosceptic counter-weight. For now, I would assume LREM does not join ALDE, because I cannot see Macron harnessing himself within Europe to Verhofstadt at best, and Rutte at worst (from his perspective).

Many people think LREM will form a new party with ALDE sympathisers, but after the next election, many of the strongest ALDE parties are likely to take a position on European integration cool or hostile to the Macron agenda: FDP, VVD, Keskusta, SaS, ANO, Venstre, Fianna Fáil and maybe the Swedish liberal-centre parties could all be contributing 3 MEPs or more to the total. The more pro-Macron parties would be Ciudadanos, the Benelux liberals excluding VVD, a couple of the small fractions like NEOS and of course MoDem.

Macron would need to split a few more national parties away from non-ALDE groups to avoid being leader of the 5th or 6th largest European Parliamentary party. Overall, wouldn't the safer tactic for LREM be simply to join S&D?

[StateBoiler]

It's hard to divine the intentions behind the movements of the Europarties, but it doesn't really matter because they don't do any campaigning anyway. I mean, it might matter if racists like Geert Wilders and anti-European gadflies like Le Pen were going to win, but they are not.

Agreed, however there is still value in the macro parties in the sense that even some weak form of party discipline is more effecient policymaking than no parties whatsoever. The actual members of the EPP (as opposed to the ones that just sit in the group) for example are well whipped on technical issues that don't make national media enough to have an electoral impact (which is like 80% of the EP's actual power). Some get picked off by lobbying/national interest but eventually even the fanatical lobbyists would enjoy a system where you can walk into one faction leader's office and not 27.

But you're right We'll only see this more clearly if/when the EPP-SnD-ALDE triumvirate of establishment or "pro-Maastricht" parties lose a majority and some more interesting coalitions will have to take place.

Exactly - I meant to write - It doesn't matter what they decide until after the election is complete!

Which is the exact reason of why all of Europe voting for European superparty lists is foolhardy. That only works if national-level political parties announce ahead of time what group they belong to, not deciding a few months after the election.

[EPG]

Anyway, the Euro-parties are much more useful for small countries, who need to have their voices heard in the European institutions otherwise dominated by big countries. EPP in particular is a pretext to meet Angela Merkel. France has weight in the other EU institutions, and a bilateral power relationship with Germany, leaving Macron with less to gain from participation in the formal parliamentary structures and the Euro-parties than, say, Viktor Orbán.

[DavidB.]

Treffpunkt Europa has a prognosis for every EU country here.

Does not seem too accurate for the Netherlands, though: ALDE parties D66 and VVD winning 11 out of 29 seats seems way too much and is probably the result of using national polls for the next GE as indicator. D66 tend to do somewhat better in European elections compared to GEs, but the VVD do much worse. ALDE parties now have 7 seats (D66 4, VVD 3), so it seems really unlikely that they win more than 9-10 seats in the next EP election (I'd place my bets on 4 for both D66 and the VVD). CU-SGP losing their second seat also seems unlikely with three more EP seats for the Netherlands and the CDA are probably not losing two out of five seats in a low-turnout election. I also think Forum are likely to become the largest party on the Euroskeptic right, not the PVV.

[Mike88]

Treffpunkt Europa has a prognosis for every EU country here.

Does not seem too accurate for the Netherlands, though: ALDE parties D66 and VVD winning 11 out of 29 seats seems way too much and is probably the result of using national polls for the next GE as indicator. D66 tend to do somewhat better in European elections compared to GEs, but the VVD do much worse. ALDE parties now have 7 seats (D66 4, VVD 3), so it seems really unlikely that they win more than 9-10 seats in the next EP election (I'd place my bets on 4 for both D66 and the VVD). CU-SGP losing their second seat also seems unlikely with three more EP seats for the Netherlands and the CDA are probably not losing two out of five seats in a low-turnout election. I also think Forum are likely to become the largest party on the Euroskeptic right, not the PVV.

The Portuguese projection seems odd to. PSD+CDS would win 8 seats, not 7, and i don't know where they are finding a Green MP from Portugal.

[Diouf]

Treffpunkt Europa has a prognosis for every EU country here.

Does not seem too accurate for the Netherlands, though: ALDE parties D66 and VVD winning 11 out of 29 seats seems way too much and is probably the result of using national polls for the next GE as indicator. D66 tend to do somewhat better in European elections compared to GEs, but the VVD do much worse. ALDE parties now have 7 seats (D66 4, VVD 3), so it seems really unlikely that they win more than 9-10 seats in the next EP election (I'd place my bets on 4 for both D66 and the VVD). CU-SGP losing their second seat also seems unlikely with three more EP seats for the Netherlands and the CDA are probably not losing two out of five seats in a low-turnout election. I also think Forum are likely to become the largest party on the Euroskeptic right, not the PVV.

The Danish result is made somewhat more difficult to predict, as we don't yet know when the next general election will be. By summer time, most major political deals of this parliament will probably have happened, so it can basically take place anytime from the beginning of the fall 2018 to the term runs out in the summer 2019 (in which case it will be basically at the same time as the EP election). However, five seats for the Social Democrats seem like a lot, judging at this moment. They were very low in general election polls in 2014 compared to now (20.1% to 26.1%) and Denmark will go from 13 to 14 seats. But, two new left-wing parties will run in 2019, the Alternative and the Red-Green Alliance, which will likely hurt the Social Democrats. No charismatic or well-known candidates have decided to run yet (since they are all hoping to become ministers after the general election). There will likely be less vote wasting on the right, as the Liberal Alliance is likely to run in an electoral alliance with Liberals and Conservatives, whereas in 2014 their 2.9% was wasted as they did not win a seat and ran on their own. The New Right could perhaps play that role in 2019, but whether they will run will likely also have a lot to do with the timing of the general election. This could also affect whether they ally with the DPP (easier after a general election perhaps, than before)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh the Red Greens are running? Is this the end for the People's Movement Again the EU, or whatever it's called?

[Diouf]

Oh the Red Greens are running? Is this the end for the People's Movement Again the EU, or whatever it's called?

That will be one of the interesting aspects of the election in Denmark. With Denmark going from 13 to 14 seats, and the Red-Greens running high in polls (9.8% in current average), it is certainly possible that they both win a seat. The Red-Greens and the People's Movement will run in an electoral alliance to get the most of their votes, but if they only win one seat, it will go to the party with the highest vote between them. It will be interesting how it turns out. The Red-Greens surely got a strong party brand, but can they hit the right note with their policies? While they are anti-EU, they are not very vocal about it, so might not attract the hardcore anti-EU leftists. But the "we will work in the EU for the environment and against evil multinationals" position is quite filled up by the SPP and the Alternative. Is there enough space in between for the Red-Greens, who "start from zero" in this particular election? As mentioned in the "Great Nordic thread", I think the Red-Green lead candidate MP Nikolaj Villumsen is a very uncharismatic, unimpressive candidate. He has just been acting leader for the party for 5 months (due to Skipper's pregnancy) without anyone noticing at all. He only beat MP and Defence Spokesperson Eva Flyvholm, who would have been a better lead candidate, rather narrowly to top the list (1.514 votes to 1.200) despite clear support from the top of the party. The People's Movement is running Rina Ronja Kari, who won their seat in 2014, and has done decently. She has some charisma, although she can be too wonkish at times. The Red-Green party machine will probably also not be as effective as in normal elections, since quite a lot of their activists will campaign for the People's Movement. Can the Red-Green party brand cover for these flaws? We will find out.

[Tirnam]

France, Ifop poll

LREM-Modem: 27%
FN: 17%
LR: 15%
FI: 14%
PS: 7%
DLF: 6%
Others (under the 5% threshold): 14%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does anybody know what party the Croatian Human Blockade will affiliate with?

[DavidB.]

Does anybody know what party the Croatian Human Blockade will affiliate with?

Croatian friend tells me GUE/NGL would be the best guess.

[TheSaint250]

France, Ifop poll

LREM-Modem: 27%
FN: 17%
LR: 15%
FI: 14%
PS: 7%
DLF: 6%
Others (under the 5% threshold): 14%

Still somewhat strong performance by FN. Would this keep FN in second place in terms of seats as well?

Also, I read that France was planning on scrapping the different districts and making the nation single-member. Is this true?

[DavidB.]

LN and AfD will probably be bigger than FN in the new ENF group.

[windjammer]

LN and AfD will probably be bigger than FN in the new ENF group.

I'm not really sure. FN probably won't go under 15%

[DavidB.]

LN and AfD will probably be bigger than FN in the new ENF group.

I'm not really sure. FN probably won't go under 15%

But AfD will get more than 10% (probably closer to 15%, possibly even more) and Germany has many more seats than France. Italy has about the same number of seats as France, and the Lega will probably outperform FN unless they suddenly become unpopular in government.

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

[Diouf]

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

This must be the Varoufakis project, DiEM25. So his own new party, MeRA 25, will probably run with them as well, but I have no idea whether he will able to win a seat in Greece. I think the Czech Pirates is a part of it, and they would likely do very well. Barcelona mayor Ada Colau has been involved too, but I don't know whether any of the parties backing her could join. Unlike Eurovision, Australia won't take part, so I guess we won't see the Wikileaks Party

[Mike88]

LN and AfD will probably be bigger than FN in the new ENF group.

I'm not really sure. FN probably won't go under 15%

But AfD will get more than 10% (probably closer to 15%, possibly even more) and Germany has many more seats than France. Italy has about the same number of seats as France, and the Lega will probably outperform FN unless they suddenly become unpopular in government.

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

If LIVRE gets the same percentage points it had in the 2015 general election, 0.7%, it will be an amazing feat. So, no, they will not get in. PAN, however, could surprise and get a seat, but it's also very difficult.

[Former President tack50]

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

This must be the Varoufakis project, DiEM25. So his own new party, MeRA 25, will probably run with them as well, but I have no idea whether he will able to win a seat in Greece. I think the Czech Pirates is a part of it, and they would likely do very well. Barcelona mayor Ada Colau has been involved too, but I don't know whether any of the parties backing her could join. Unlike Eurovision, Australia won't take part, so I guess we won't see the Wikileaks Party

Colau's party will definitely not run outside Podemos in the European election. Especially since Colau herself will be up for reelection (the Spanish local elections are the same day as the EU ones). So I guess it depends on whether Podemos wants to join forces with Varoufakis or not. Probably not though.

If Compromís-Equo run alone again as "European Spring" instead of joining Podemos they would fit quite well as eco-socialist parties but again I don't think they will.

[parochial boy]

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

This must be the Varoufakis project, DiEM25. So his own new party, MeRA 25, will probably run with them as well, but I have no idea whether he will able to win a seat in Greece. I think the Czech Pirates is a part of it, and they would likely do very well. Barcelona mayor Ada Colau has been involved too, but I don't know whether any of the parties backing her could join. Unlike Eurovision, Australia won't take part, so I guess we won't see the Wikileaks Party

Lol, what would this be, the "we used to be famous" group?