European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Boobs]

Why do wedding rings appear when I Google "Alliance Jaune"?

“Alliance” is the word for wedding band; thus it’s like searching for a “yellow wedding ring”

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Portugal: 1st debate between the main parties will happen tonight on SIC TV. Invited to the debate are the PS, PSD, CDU, CDS, BE and PDR main candidates.

We'll see if Europe is even talked about...

The debate just finished.


Candidates in SIC TV studios. From left to right: Marinho e Pinto (PDR); João Ferreira (CDU); Pedro Marques (PS); Paulo Rangel (PSD); Marisa Matias (BE); Nuno Melo (CDS). Picture from Diário de Notícias

Europe was talked about, but, not so much, in my view. Pundits say the debate didn't had a clear winner, Pedro Marques, PS, gained a bit of strength as the debate went on, but he started in a very low bar; Paulo Rangel, PSD, was quite moderate but didn't exceed expectations; Nuno Melo, CDS, was quite energetic, bringing photos of José Sócrates hugging António Costa and exceeded expections, but, it reamis to see if this gains votes for CDS; Marisa Matias, BE, was also moderate and had a good performance; Marinho e Pinto, PDR, exceeded expectations as he was also very energetic, we'll see if that translates into votes; João Ferreira, CDU, was quite low profile. although it was clear the tension between him and Marisa Matias.


One of the highlights of debate: Nuno Melo (CDS) showing a picture of Sócrates and Costa. Picture from Observador newspaper.

Other topics talked about were the 7% cut of EU funds to Portugal, with a strong exchange of words between PS and PSD; the situation in Venezuela, with a war of words between PS and PSD/CDS about José Sócrates; Brexit, in which the PSD proposed an alliance with the Atlantic countries; The far-right increase in Europe, with the PS accusing the right of normalizing it and PSD saying that PES isn't without faults, Malta and Romenia were an example.

What is the differences between BE and CDU?

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll (Research Affairs):

29% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
23% FPÖ (+1)
10% NEOS
  7% Greens
  2% NOW
  2% KPÖ (-1)

Turnout: 47%

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so apparently the parties that will run in Spain for the European Elections were actually published a couple of days ago, though of course with the general election hangover no one really noticed.

Anyways, here they are. As I usually do, parties that actually have a chance at getting a seat go first and in colour, while parties that won't get a seat no matter what go later and in black. As per the order the election authorities established (not like it matters):

Coalición por una Europa Solidaria (CEUS)
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE)
Ahora Repúblicas
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA)
Compromís per Europa / Compromiso por Europa (CPE)
Unidas Podemos Cambiar Europa (Podemos-IU)
Ciudadanos-Partido de la ciudadanía (Cs)
Lliures per Europa (JUNTS)
VOX (VOX)
Partido Popular (PP)

Iniciativa Feminista (I.Fem)
Alternativa Republicana (ALTER)
Centristas por Europa (CxE)
Contigo Somos Democracia (CONTIGO)
FE de las JONS, Alternativa Española, La Falange, Democracia Nacional (ADÑ)
Solidaridad y Autogestión Internacionalista (SAIn)
Partido Comunista de los Trabajadores de España (PCTE)
Foro de Ciudadanos (FAC)
Partido Humanista (PH)
Andalucía por el Sí (AxSí)
Actúa (PACT)
Movimiento Independiente Euro Latino (MIEL)
Izquierda en Positivo (IZQP)
PCPE-PCPC-PCPA (PCPE)
Por un Mundo más Justo (PUM+J)
Movimiento Corriente Roja (MCR)
Igualdad Real (IGRE)
Pirates de Catalunya - European Pirates (pirates.cat/ep)
Volt Europa (VOLT)
Coalición Verde-Europa Ciudadana (LV-EC)
Recortes Cero-Los Verdes-Grupo Verde Europeo (RECORTES CERO-LV-GVE)
Extremeños-Prex-Crex (CEX-PREX-CREX)

So we will have a total of 31 parties running, though only 10 have a chance at getting seats

Of the lists that won't get a seat, the most interesting ones in my opinion are

ADÑ: A coalition of various far-right parties, including Franco's old party! (FE-JONS). Led by Ricardo Sáenz de Ynestrillas, the son of a general who was involved in a coup attempt in 1980 and was later murdered by ETA; and has been a large figure in the Spanish far right for a long time now.

MIEL: Some sort of special interests party for Latin American inmigrants in Europe

Volt Europa: Some sort of pan-European party which seems to be running in several countries under a single platform and the same name. Pretty nice to see tbh.

Arrangement of the regional parties

As per usual, since they won't reach enough seats individually, regional parties have had to form coalitions (the ones that didn't won't even get 0.05% of the vote). The coalitions this time around are:

Coalición por una Europa Solidaria: Basque PNV+Canarian CC+Balearic Islands PI+Galician CxG+Valencian DV. Only the first 3 actually have seats in their regional assemblies. CxG has a handful of councillors but no actual regional presence and DV has pretty much nothing.

Ahora Repúblicas: Catalan ERC+Basque Bildu+Galician BNG+Aragonese Puyalón+Asturian Andecha Astur+Canarian Ahora Canarias. The first 3 actually have seats in their regional assemblies and will actually bring in decent amounts of votes. The last 3 are fringe secessionist parties from their respective regions

Compromiso por Europa: Valencian Compromís+Canarian NCa+Balearic Islands Més+Aragon ChA+Ceuta Coalición Caballas+Melilla CpM+Galician En Marea+Castillian PC-TC+Andalusian Iniciativa Andalucista. The first 6 actually have seats in their regional assemblies, though Compromís will be by far the largest vote bringer. En Marea is a Podemos split. PC-TC and IA are both fringe nationalist parties from their respective regions (yes, Castillian nationalists do exist lol).

The thing about this one is that pretty much everyone on this list had a horrible election night in the general election, with Compromís getting a measly 1 seat while NCa was completely shut out of parliament. Of all the nationalist lists, this one seems by far the least likely to get a seat

Lliures per Europa: Puigdemont's vanity list, pretty much de facto endorsed by JxCat (though they are contesting the election as an independent list? Idk). Puigdemont himself was going to run, but the election authorities barred him from running at the last minute. His face will appear on the election ballot though lol.

[Mike88]

What is the differences between BE and CDU?

In essence, BE is a more radical left-wing party, while CDU is more moderate and institutionalized, the fact the CDU, or PCP, always had a strong local government record, unlike BE which has zero local governments, weighs a lot too. The tension between both is mainly because they target, essentially, the same electorate, although BE gains more younger voters, while CDU is very popular among elders. To add also that BE continues to challenge CDU' dominance in the left-wing area, which is something the Communists can't stand. In terms of policy, BE is much more radical than PCP/CDU. BE is against private managements of hospitals, more taxes to the wealthy, liberalization of social issues, etc, while CDU, although agreeing in basically the same things as BE, is more moderate as they tolerate privates in the NHS, and in terms of social policies they sometimes have a bit conservative positions.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Thanks Mike, I know that I "choosed" better party

[DavidB.]

Netherlands, first I&O poll:

VVD 5 (+2)
Forum voor Democratie 4 (+4)
GroenLinks 4 (+2)
D66 3 (-1)
PvdA 3
CDA 2 (-3)
SP 2
CU-SGP 2
PVV 1 (-3)
PvdD 0 (-1)
50Plus 0
DENK 0

Turnout would be between 37% and 45%. Euroskeptics FVD, PVV, PvdD and 50Plus have more trouble mobilizing their electorate than the establishment and pro-EU parties. The intention to turn out is also lower among CDA voters.

47% are dissatisfied with the EU's performance of the last years, only 32% are satisfied. 46% think European institutions have too much power, 47% think European integration has gone too far. However, only 32% want a referendum on our membership in the EU and in such a referendum 72% would vote to remain, 18% would vote to leave.

Fun fact: 10% of VVD voters think Frans Timmermans (PvdA; S&D Spitzenkandidat) is the leading VVD candidate in the EP election. That's about as many as those VVD voters who correctly identified Malik Azmani as leading VVD candidate.

[Gustaf]

I did the Dutch test:

CDA: 63%
PVV: 60%
50+: 51%

...

Jezus Leeft: 34%
Denk: 34%
Volt: 34%
Pirate Party: 29%

[DavidB.]

Got Forum 92%, PVV 83%, CDA 56%, Jezus Leeft 56%, 50Plus 44% (...) D66 14%, GL 14%, DENK 14%, Volt 0%.

As the Netherlands votes on Thursday already, there is an official embargo on the preliminary election results until Sunday evening. But like last time around, contrarian website GeenStijl will find a way to work around it by having members of the public across the country go to their polling stations during the count, write down the results as they are announced (which is mandatory) and then submit these results to GeenStijl, which is all legal. GeenStijl will have a live show and broadcast all of this on their website with a livestream. Last time around they managed to produce a very accurate prognosis based on this information. Josse de Voogd, the number one expert on Dutch electoral geography, will join GeenStijl for the evening when the count takes place and results start to get in.

[Former President tack50]

Here are my Dutch results



I guess I am DavidB's political opposite Also lol at Jezus Leeft above VVD.

Looking at Volt topping the list, since they are running here as well I am very seriously considering voting for them. I guess if I'm going to waste my vote, I may as well waste it for good. (the party I was considering looks unlikely to get seats either)

[Tender Branson]

My results for Holland (pretty much the same as for the Austrian Wahlkabine):

[Beagle]

So, Bulgaria. 17 seats in Brussels/Strasbourg are contested by (sigh) 318 candidates presented by (double sigh) 13 parties, 8 coalitions and 6 independents (2 of the latter running their campaigns from jail).

Going in the order of the last EU election, this is where we are:

GERB - EPP - 2014: 6 seats
Rocked by corruption scandals, the ruling party is running a very safe campaign, appealing to their core voters with a "Stop the Socialists" message. I can write a lot about the emerging rupture within the party, but it is mostly irrelevant in the EU Election context and also uninteresting to all but the most die-hard observers of the Bulgarian political scene.

The party list is headed by the present EU Commissioner Mariya Gabriel, followed by 4 of the current incumbents. 6th on the list is an UDF "Old Right" figure, since GERB is running a coalition in all but name with the first Bulgarian anti-communist party. No.7 is an ex-infrastructure minister from the first GERB cabinet, who also headed the short-lived ministry for the presidency of the EU Council in 2018. No. 8 is the fifth of the incumbents, while one is retiring after 2,5 terms - one of the two MEPs who had served continuously since Bulgaria's EU ascension. Even if Gabriel is considered a lock to be renominated to the next EU-commission, it is not realistic to expect that those behind the 8th position will be elected, at least initially, and in any event those are filled by generic GERB politicians, who are utterly anonymous.

The neck-and-neck state of the race is considered to be in no small part due to the anonymity, and general irrelevance of the incumbent MEPs and especially the list leader. Of course, people who vote for GERB mostly base their vote on the personality of party leader and PM Boyko Borisov, but it seems that GERB may suffer their second loss in the party's 12 years of existence, even if the BSP advantage is tiny in the most reputable polling.
Estimated seats -  5 to 7

BSP - PES - 2014: 4 seats
After an ugly ugly battle to remove her predecessor as BSP leader, current PES President and incumbent MEP Sergey Stanishev from the party list, which was ultimately unsuccessful, current leader Ninova has washed her hands of the EU election, refusing to take responsibility for the outcome of the campaign. While rudderless, the campaign has been very aggressive on the anti-corruption message, with barely any mention of any European issues. In general, though, the BSP has been running a traditional anti-austerity, pro-Russian campaign, mixed with socially conservative messaging - ostensibly the reason why Stanishev was supposed to be dropped was because of his (and European PES) support for the Istanbul convention.

The BSP list is now headed by Elena Yoncheva, a journalist, MP and, maybe most importantly, Sergey Stanishev's ex-girlfriend. Second and third are two lucky scions of Socialist dynasties who were originally nominated in unelectable positions but in the open vote which settled the order proved inoffensive enough to both camps to move into the top spots. 4th is the chief of staff to president Radev - something which was necessary to forestall the expected personalist party Radev is almost certain to form at some point. Sergey Stanishev could only get 5th in the face of Ninova's opposition, while 6th is a confidante of the only BSP MEP who is retiring of his own volition. One of the incumbents resigned in protest of being assigned the number 9 spot, which is currently occupied by the other current BSP MEP - the lucky number 15 on the 2014 list, who got elected preferentially after too many people marked the same number for the party list and the preference vote*. 7th is Ninova's choice for the no2 spot - an ex deputy PM in one of the caretaker cabinets of the past few years, who previously served in the EP from 2009 to 2013. There will be an active preference campaign within the BSP, so it may be that one of the people further back will be elected, but in that unlikely event, I will add a description later.
* to prevent this, from now on the candidates will be numbered with a three digit number on the ballot
Estimated seats -  5 to 7

DPS - ALDE - 2014: 3 seats
There is not even a semblance of internal democracy within the DPS, nor do they do much campaigning in the sense the word is usually used, so the only question is how much of their captive vote will turn out in the EU elections. Rhetorically, of course, they are by far the most conscious of EU issues, but in practice, well, it's a different story.

The DPS list is headed by the party leader Karadayi, but it is very clear that he will not go to Brussels. The number 2 on the list, like in 2014, is a certain Mr. Delyan Peevski, who was, er, discouraged from taking up the seat then, but appears to be determined to take it now. Not that he will actually go to the Brussels parliament more than he goes to the Sofia one - he has attended Parliament 3 times in the past 4 years - but he wants to live outside Bulgaria for now. One of the reasons why the DPS list leader in 2007, 2009 and 2014 is retiring is because this time Peevski will take up his seat, unless the ALDE intervene like they did in 2014. Peevski is often described as 'controversial' in press articles outside Bulgaria, but I would argue that there is no controversy at all - I have spoken to enough people in the major parties (even some in the DPS) to know that he is universally loathed, but also universally feared. Anyway, the two other current MEPs are 3rd and 4th and a bunch of 20- and 30-somethings make up the rest.
Estimated seats -  3 to 5

Bulgaria without Censorship coalition - ECR - 2014:2 seats
The idiocy that was BwC lasted only 9 months, but the damage was already done. The only party which has emerged relatively intact from the opportunistic project is VMRO, whose deputy leader Angel Dzhambazki, the no.2 on the 2014 BwC list, is running for reelection at the head of a VMRO list. Note that the parliamentary coalition "United Patriots", which is second fiddle in the GERB-led government, has predictably fallen apart for the EU elections and the other two parties - Attack and NFSB are running separate lists out of spite with zero chance of passing the threshold. Dzhambazki is running a fairly expensive and personal campaign, which means that he is probably the second or third most recognizable Bulgarian MEP - it has always been dangerous to step between him and a camera. The VMRO campaign is based on "Christian values", "identity" and other buzzwords, but in reality they rely on good old Roma bashing and having a few prominent individuals in the list, as well as exploiting every possible venue to be on TV. It may be just enough to retain Dzhambazki's seat and, due to the quirks of Hare-Niemeyer, if they get in, they will very likely get a second seat too, which will be filled by one of their national MPs.
Estimated seats -  0 to 2

On a side note, the BwC leader and face Nikolay Barekov is also running a hopeless troll campaign. Since trolling is what he has been doing for the past 5 years, he is getting quite good at it - I couldn't link to the actual facebook post, but you can click here for a laugh. Just a quick explanation: 'gender' has become a pejorative in the Bulgarian political vernacular, meaning somebody who is either transgender, supports LGBT rights or is just generally socially liberal. Or is paid by Soros. Or, you know, is disagreeable in general.

Reformist bloc - EPP - 2014:1 seat

With the exception of the UDF (see the GERB entry), the remaining 'Old Right' parties are either not running or are in the "Democratic Bulgaria" coalition of DSB (who have dropped the 'New Republic' branding), 'Yes Bulgaria' and the Greens. DB are hoping there would be enough pro-European urban dwellers who would never vote Socialist, but are nevertheless disgusted with GERB's malfeasance, to retain their seat and relevance, which is looking a marginal proposition at best. The incumbent MEP (from the DSB, having gained his seat through preference voting in 2014) was planning on running again until he missed an important vote in early March, so he decided to step down. Radan Kanev, the ex-DSB leader (see the 2017 parliamentary thread for more details) has jumped in at the head of the list. Note that while he, like his party, is EPP and would seat with that group, in the unlikely event he is pushed down by preference votes or DB elects more than one MEP, it is not certain where that person would sit. The No. 2, presented by Yes Bulgaria, has announced that as long as Fidesz is a part of the EPP, he cannot be a part of that grouping, while the No. 3 would presumably sit with the Greens-EFA.
Estimated seats -  0 to 1
I'm still voting for them tho

The remaining however many parties, coalitions and independents (including Volya, currently aligned to MENF, which is represented in the national parliament) do not appear to have any chance of passing the 5,88% barrier, so no matter how interesting their platforms, candidates and European alignments may be, I will not discuss them here.

Latest polling (from today, actually):
BSP - PES - 32.7%
GERB - EPP - 32.2%
DPS - ALDE - 9,2%
VMRO - ECR - 6%
DB - EPP? - 4,5%

No other party, coalition or independent is above 2%

Back of the envelope calculations show that this would result in a BSP - 6, GERB - 6, DPS - 3, VMRO - 2 seat distribution, however DPS traditionally underpolls - their voters are hard to reach for Bulgarian-speaking pollsters.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[Tender Branson]

European Parliament-made ad (on YouTube/Facebook it has almost 100 million views):

https://twitter.com/Europarl_EN/status/1121292755576057856

[Tender Branson]

Good new ad from Claudia Gamon from the liberal NEOS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwu5aGMzRiY

+ new posters from them calling for a "United States of Europe" and by portraying Gamon, party-leader Meinl-Reisinger and former independent presidential candidate Irmgard Griss ("girl power").

https://twitter.com/neos_eu/status/1124240158470090754

[jaichind]

So the election will be on May 23 to May 26? Are there different voting days depending on country?  Will the counting and results be announce as soon as the voting is over or all on May 26th ?

[Tender Branson]

So the election will be on May 23 to May 26? Are there different voting days depending on country?  Will the counting and results be announce as soon as the voting is over or all on May 26th ?

Yes, different voting days (see chart) and the results are embargoed until Italy closes at 11pm on Sunday.

Though exit polls in the Netherlands and UK etc. will be released when their polls have closed, from what I have read.

[DavidB.]

This is what the postal ballot for Dutch people abroad looks like. Much better than the huge ballots with all the names on it that we have to use here.

[Tender Branson]

I have received my postal ballot yesterday, but I still have no clue which party to vote for.

Still in the running are: SPÖ, Greens and NEOS.

Votes for KPÖ and Europe Now are wasted votes, besides I do not like Voggenhuber (E-Now) and the KPÖ is pretty extreme, like the FPÖ.

[bigic]

D66, CU-SGP 67%
PvdA, GL, Volt 57%
PvdD, 50+, Denk 50%
CDA 47%
SP, DG 40%
VVD, vdR-Pirate 37%
JL 33%
FvD 23%
PVV 20%

Surprised to see CU-SGP so high and VVD so low.

[parochial boy]

So in France will there a Yellow vests list on the ballot ? I see polling that include them but I thought the Yellow vests are really a confederation of very diverse protest groups and there is no way there could be a list with a coherent platform.  

From what I can tell, there are two separate "Gilets jaunes" lists as of today - one called "Alliance Jaune" led by Francis Lalane and another one called "Evolution Citoyenne" led by Christophe Chalençon. Simplifying somewha; Lalanne is a bit more Green-lefty; and Chalençon is a bit more nationalist-righty (both, mostly, are self-important "grandes gueules" essentially). Other figures have also cropped up on Philippot and NDA's lists.

But basically yeah, the reason they are all polling shambolically is because, well the lack of a unifiying ideologicall. That, and a big part of the movement from the very beginning has been the vehement rejection of any form of "leadership" or "spokesmen" (I mean, who even remembers Ingrid Levavaseur now?)

Update, French lists have now been confirmed. 33 standing in all, including a third gilets jaunes one, «Mouvement pour l’initiative citoyenne» who seem to be a single issue one about getting the RIC (citizen's inititiave referendum, one of the only consistent demands of the protestors) though. I'm gonna stick my neck out and predict that none of the three lists gets over 1% of the vote.

Here is al 33 lists. All the familiar names but a few oddballs include:

- Une France royale au coeur de l’Europe (lol)
 - La Ligne Claire  - led by Renaud Camus, the man behind the "great replacement" theory that inspired, among others, the terrorist attacks in Christchurch
 - Liste de la reconquête - straight out Fascists
 - The European Federalist party
 - a bunch of other special interest parties ("youth", "artisans and independents", "esperanto"(?), lots of different shades of green...)

By the looks of it, the move to a single constituency has destroyed all the regionalist parties you used to get. I can't see any led by the like of Christian Troadec, for example.

[Walmart_shopper]

69% Denk
67% SP and Volt
64% D66 and GroenLinks
59% PvdA
56% Christen Unie
51% 50 Plus (one)
51% Pirate Party
44% Dieren Party
38% De Groenen
33% Jezus Leeft
31% CDA
28% VVD
21% Vrijheid
18% FvD

[Mike88]

Portugal: Eurosondagem poll.

Vote share %:

34.0% PS, 9/10 seats
27.1% PSD, 7/8
  8.1% CDU, 2
  7.1% CDS, 1/2
  7.1% BE, 1/2
  3.3% PAN, 0/1
  3.3% Alliance, 0/1
10.0% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 28 April and 2 May 2019. Polled 2,010 voters. MoE of 2.19%.

[augbell]

Link to a special polls for the French election: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=319382.0

[Omega21]

I have received my postal ballot yesterday, but I still have no clue which party to vote for.

Still in the running are: SPÖ, Greens and NEOS.

Votes for KPÖ and Europe Now are wasted votes, besides I do not like Voggenhuber (E-Now) and the KPÖ is pretty extreme, like the FPÖ.

Well yeah, they are Communists...