European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Person Man]

TL:DR. What are the main narratives right now?

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout at 5:30 was 24%, on par with 2014.

Quite suprising, I expected turnout to be higher given the surge of FvD like the PS 2019 election.

Just voted Labour (twice)

My expectation

VVD 5
FvD 4
PvdA 4
CDA 3
GL 3
CU/SGP 2
D66 2
SP 1
PVV 1
PvdD 1

[Former President tack50]

Turnout at 5:30 was 24%, on par with 2014.

Sad.

I was hoping for a Europe-wide uptick in the turnout numbers.

But if it's not the case in the Netherlands, it probably is not the case anywhere else ... (except maybe for the UK and Austria, where the Brexit and recent Ibiza-Gate dominates).

For what's worth, there will be a massive uptick in turnout here in Spain, but only because the EU elections are the same day as the local elections (which usually have around 60-65% turnout compared to 40-45% for the EU elections)

[DavidB.]

TL:DR. What are the main narratives right now?

There is no Europe-wide main narrative. It depends on the country.

Which probably tells you enough about the EU too.

[Hatman 🍁]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

Wait, Commonwealth citizens can vote in EU elections? I thought that was reserved to British and EU citizens?

Commonwealth Citizens with UK long-term residence can vote in elections. I've lived here for years.

Funnily enough UK citizens living in a Commonwealth country cannot vote. My partner is a UK citizen (dual citizen), but can't vote in British elections (then again, considering she was born in Canada, and never lived in the UK, which constituency would she even vote in?). She has however used her UK passport as ID in a Canadian election though!

[cp]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

Wait, Commonwealth citizens can vote in EU elections? I thought that was reserved to British and EU citizens?

Commonwealth Citizens with UK long-term residence can vote in elections. I've lived here for years.

Funnily enough UK citizens living in a Commonwealth country cannot vote. My partner is a UK citizen (dual citizen), but can't vote in British elections (then again, considering she was born in Canada, and never lived in the UK, which constituency would she even vote in?). She has however used her UK passport as ID in a Canadian election though!

I think there are exceptions to this. UK citizens who had emigrated from the country <15 years prior were allowed to vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum, iirc.

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout 34%, in 2014 it was 32%. Turnout in almost all cities (Rotterdam, Utrecht, Groningen) they track is already higher than in 2014. Final turnout will probably be higher than 40%

[DavidB.]

Turnout 34%, in 2014 it was 32%. Turnout in almost all cities (Rotterdam, Utrecht, Groningen) they track is already higher than in 2014. Final turnout will probably be higher than 40%

Good news. Big turnout spike after 6, just like in the PS election, where we were actually "behind schedule" until the evening too. Perhaps an effect of the economy doing better compared to 4-5 years ago?

[DavidB.]

Utrecht is at 47% already. They always have high turnout, but this is insane.

[Diouf]

NOS sadly seem to be geoblocked

Hope to catch a bit of election vibe today and next few days, since I probably won't be able to follow much on Sunday evening, certainly not the official result at 11

[DavidB.]

NOS sadly seem to be geoblocked

Hope to catch a bit of election vibe today and next few days, since I probably won't be able to follow much on Sunday evening, certainly not the official result at 11

Go for GeenStijl.

Won't have much time to comment here this evening - will be at a watchparty.

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll
PvdA 18.4% 5 seats
VVD 14.6% 4 seats
CDA 12.5% 4 seats
FvD 11.2% 3 seats
GL 10.4% 3 seats
CU/SGP 7.9% 2 seats
D66 6.3% 2 seats
50+ 4.2% 1 seat
PVV 4.1% 1 seat
SP 3.9% 1 seat
PvdD 3.4% 0 seat
Others 3.1%

Wow PvdA largest party

Really a Timerfrans effect as I expected but not by this margin

[Diouf]

First exit poll from NOS  Ipsos exit poll

[SunSt0rm]

SP and PVV really close to the threshold

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

First exit poll from NOS  Ipsos exit poll

what.

[Diouf]

So the exit poll is based on the current 26 seats. I wonder if they will also show a potential 29 seat calculation for if Britain leaves. Gonna be a constant complication in understanding the EP calculations this time

[Walmart_shopper]

Exit Poll
PvdA 18.4% 5 seats
VVD 14.6% 4 seats
CDA 12.5% 4 seats
FvD 11.2% 3 seats
GL 10.4% 3 seats
CU/SGP 7.9% 2 seats
D66 6.3% 2 seats
50+ 4.2% 1 seat
PVV 4.1% 1 seat
SP 3.9% 1 seat
PvdD 3.4% 0 seat
Others 3.1%
Wow PvdA largest party

Really a Timerfrans effect as I expected but not by this margin

Party like its 1999.

[jeron]

Exit Poll
PvdA 18.4% 5 seats
VVD 14.6% 4 seats
CDA 12.5% 4 seats
FvD 11.2% 3 seats
GL 10.4% 3 seats
CU/SGP 7.9% 2 seats
D66 6.3% 2 seats
50+ 4.2% 1 seat
PVV 4.1% 1 seat
SP 3.9% 1 seat
PvdD 3.4% 0 seat
Others 3.1%
Wow PvdA largest party

Really a Timerfrans effect as I expected but not by this margin

Quite a few surprises. PvdA of course. But FvD lower than expected and basically just taking 3 seats from PVV. I am also surprised PvdD doesn’t keep its seat.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dutch turnout is 40%, the highest EU election turnout since 1989. Might explain the muted Right?

[SunSt0rm]

Final Exit Poll
PvdA 18.1% 5 seats
VVD 15% 4 seats
CDA 12.3% 4 seats
FvD 11.0% 3 seats
GL 10.5% 3 seats
CU/SGP 7.9% 2 seats
D66 6.3% 2 seats
50+ 4.1% 1 seat
PVV 4.1% 1 seat
SP 3.9% 1 seat
PvdD 3.6% 0 seat
Others 3.3%

Turnout 41% (+4%)

Small changes, no changes in seats

[Senator Incitatus]

Definitely a surprising poll to me.

[parochial boy]

Just need to replicate that in another 27 countries then, hey?

[Walmart_shopper]

Why is the only exit poll being released the Dutch poll? Are all other countries voting today still voting?

[Oryxslayer]

There's kinda a home-state effect going on since spitzenkandidat Timmermans for the S&D Europe-wide is on the ballot there. At least this was what was expected, according to @EuropeElects.

Why is the only exit poll being released the Dutch poll? Are all other countries voting today still voting?

Only UK and The Netherlands voted en masse today. 

[Zinneke]

Any dutch people with a link that I can use outside the NL? dankje!