European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Fianna Fail MEP reps for ECR, iirc; not ALDE (although apparently he's always absent so probably won't return).

[DavidB.]

The Fianna Fail MEP reps for ECR, iirc; not ALDE (although apparently he's always absent so probably won't return).

FF weren't happy with his decision either.

[EPG]

The Fianna Fail MEP reps for ECR, iirc; not ALDE (although apparently he's always absent so probably won't return).

He's always absent but he probably will return.

[Diouf]

Katainen is not running! Stubb seems likely to do it instead, and is probably a more charismatic choice as well

https://www.politico.eu/article/jyrki-katainen-european-election-2019-wont-run-for-commission-president/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Helsinkian]

Anyone is more charismatic than Katainen.

Stubb is a charismatic politician, even if one doesn't like his politics. He's fluent in five languages, too. EPP's party congress will be held in Helsinki; I wonder if that will play to his advantage.

[Ethelberth]

ALDE vs MACRON

FI  4 vs 0
SE 4 vs 0
DK 3 vs 1
DE 10 vs 0
NL 5 vs 2
BE 0 vs 4 (If VLD/MR really lefts the group) also it possible that N-VA could join Liberals left Liberals.
LU 0 vs 1
FR 4 vs 24
ES 2 vs 12
PT 0 vs 0
IR 3 vs 0 (stonmen are likely get their seats back)
PL 4 vs 0
EE 4 vs 0
LV  1 vs 0
LT  2 vs 0
CS 5 vs 0
SK 0 vs 1
AT 2 vs 0
HU 0 vs 1
SI 2 vs 0
HR 2 vs 0
BU 4 vs 0
RO 3 vs 3
IT 0 vs 20
MT 0 vs 0
EL 0 vs 1
CY 0 vs 0

64  vs  68

[TheSaint250]

ALDE vs MACRON

FI  4 vs 0
SE 4 vs 0
DK 3 vs 1
DE 10 vs 0
NL 5 vs 2
BE 0 vs 4 (If VLD/MR really lefts the group) also it possible that N-VA could join Liberals left Liberals.
LU 0 vs 1
FR 4 vs 24
ES 2 vs 12
PT 0 vs 0
IR 3 vs 0 (stonmen are likely get their seats back)
PL 4 vs 0
EE 4 vs 0
LV  1 vs 0
LT  2 vs 0
CS 5 vs 0
SK 0 vs 1
AT 2 vs 0
HU 0 vs 1
SI 2 vs 0
HR 2 vs 0
BU 4 vs 0
RO 3 vs 3
IT 0 vs 20
MT 0 vs 0
EL 0 vs 1
CY 0 vs 0

64  vs  68

Do you have the link for this?

[FredLindq]

I really think that the swedish centreparty withvits current leader Annie Lööf would like to join Macron. She is even running ads like Framåt Sverige i.e. forward Sweden i.e. En Marche. They would get two seats, could get three if they manage to get liberal voters voting for the Liberals ex Folkpartiet which tend to to very good EP-elections. I also think that many Liberals in Sweden would like to join Macron but the party is to attached to ELDR and ALDE with its swdeish commisioner Cecelia Malmström.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Isn't there supposed to be a new Finnish Liberal Party that is trying to get off the ground?

[Helsinkian]

Isn't there supposed to be a new Finnish Liberal Party that is trying to get off the ground?

That would be Liike Nyt ("Movement Now") which was founded by Harry Harkimo, an MP who quit the National Coalition Party in the spring, and Mikael Jungner, former party secretary of the Social Democrats who quit that party a couple of years ago. They currently have one MP, Harkimo. They claim that "we're a movement, not a party" but they wouldn't be the first party to use that rhetoric. So far they have not begun to collect the signatures needed for official party registration, though, but they can participate in elections without that status as well.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

From Poland 0 MEPs for ALDE and 0 for Macronites.

[EPG]

How many seats will Macron and Renzi win? Naively, I would guess 24 for Macron and friends, low teens for a united PD/Renzi, single figures for Renzi on his own?

If we are indeed talking about 130 seats, it's foolish for the two lists to run separately. Macron has no European weight - just the Franco-German alliance, plus a Spanish opposition party. ALDE already have weak cohesion, contested leadership and no national influence. Neither would lose anything by running together.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

From Poland 0 MEPs for ALDE and 0 for Macronites.

You think Schetyna will screw .N that badly in the coalition?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

How many seats will Macron and Renzi win? Naively, I would guess 24 for Macron and friends, low teens for a united PD/Renzi, single figures for Renzi on his own?

If we are indeed talking about 130 seats, it's foolish for the two lists to run separately. Macron has no European weight - just the Franco-German alliance, plus a Spanish opposition party. ALDE already have weak cohesion, contested leadership and no national influence. Neither would lose anything by running together.

Implying this has any purpose other than feeding Macron’s ego...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

From Poland 0 MEPs for ALDE and 0 for Macronites.

You think Schetyna will screw .N that badly in the coalition?

Well, I am taking into consideration PiS attempts to change voting system for EP elections. PO probably would not like to in that new system cooperate with smaller parties.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

From Poland 0 MEPs for ALDE and 0 for Macronites.

You think Schetyna will screw .N that badly in the coalition?

Well, I am taking into consideration PiS attempts to change voting system for EP elections. PO probably would not like to in that new system cooperate with smaller parties.

That may be, but a rump .N could still take 2-3% from them which could cost them dearly under the new system. Giving Lubnauer a seat or two like SLD do for Unia Pracy is the only way to avoid that. We’ll see.

[TheSaint250]

Salvini openly discussing forming a "nationalist bloc" for the 2019 elections

[windjammer]

Salvini openly discussing forming a "nationalist bloc" for the 2019 elections

That wouldn't be a bad thing btw.

[EPG]

Salvini openly discussing forming a "nationalist bloc" for the 2019 elections

Usual Politico garbage, the idea that these people will control the agenda is nonsensical. They might do as well as Greens/EFA plus GUE/NGL, who between them, don't exactly control Europe.

[Ethelberth]

If CSU is expelled from Union and CDU becomes national, what will the role of Manfred Weber (CSU) be.

[Diouf]

Sweden Democrats join ECR Group:

http://ecrgroup.eu/ecr-group-approves-two-new-members-peter-lundgren-and-kristina-winberg/

[Tender Branson]

After Juncker recently said that he'd prefer the FPÖ to leave the FN-dominated grouping in the EU parliament (as a way of showing that they are seriously moving to the center, instead of being good buddies with the more extremist FN), the FPÖ shoots back at him saying "it is none of Juncker's business to meddle in European parliament affairs and how groups there should be organized".

Vilimsky (FPÖ) didn't rule out some group changes after the election though, citing "constant talks" with all the other European far-right parties ...

[Diouf]

German Grünen nominates Ska Keller as spitzenkandidat. The election will take place at the end of November. Keller was of course a spitzenkandidat in 2014 as well, and has been co-chair of the Green group, so she is a quite logical candidate. Like most MEPs, she is probably completely unknown outside Germany, but she is fairly charismatic. If there are spitzenkandidat debates again, she will probably stick out quite a bit, but it is of course doubtful whether media and voters will give any attention to this.

I'm guessing we will see three or four additional candidates?

[Diouf]

[Former President tack50]

Will any of the euroskeptic groups (EFDD, ENF, ECR) or the far left GUE/NGL nominate anyone?

Apparently in 2014 the euroskeptics didn't nominate anyone while GUE/NGL nominated Tsipras.