European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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Author Topic: European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019  (Read 157047 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #375 on: November 09, 2018, 05:10:20 PM »

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?
This type of posts qualifies as spam, in my opinion.

Why ?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #376 on: November 09, 2018, 05:15:02 PM »

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?
This type of posts qualifies as spam, in my opinion.
Why ?
Because it's a completely nonsensical detour that does not pertain to the subject of the thread.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #377 on: November 09, 2018, 05:18:03 PM »

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?

Clearly not since Weber is going to win.

Not ideologically of course, that was not the point.

Can you guess what makes them similar ?

Anyway, to solve it:

Both Beto O'Rourke and Manfred Weber are political newcomers and both are former rock musicians:



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Helsinkian
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« Reply #378 on: November 09, 2018, 05:37:43 PM »

First Trump wants Europe to take care of its own defence. And then when Macron suggests that the EU do just that, Trump gets offended and pretends like it's aimed against the US.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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« Reply #379 on: November 10, 2018, 01:37:12 AM »

Austria-related EU poll results from the recent ÖGFE survey:

"In your opinion, should Austria remain EU-member or exit the EU ?"

74% Remain
13% Auxit
12% Undecided

"From July-December, Austria has the rotating EU Presidency of member states. Do you approve or disapprove of the ÖVP-FPÖ government work for the EU Presidency so far ?"

49% Approve
33% Disapprove
17% Undecided

"Has your interest in EU-related politics increased since Austria took over the EU Presidency in July, or is that not the case ?"

23% has increased
72% that is not the case

"In May 2019, the next EU elections will take place. Are you personally taking part in those elections ?"

42% Yes, definitely
34% Probably yes
14% Probably not
  3% Definitely not
  7% Undecided

(Final turnout in EU elections almost always mirrors the "definitely" percentage. Still, the 42% percentage is relatively good at this point and could end up near 50% once the election campaign starts.)

https://oegfe.at/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Grafiken_Oktober-2018_GESAMT.pdf
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #380 on: November 10, 2018, 10:13:57 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2018, 11:46:09 AM by Mike88 »

No surprise here: Marisa Matias will be the main candidate for the Left Bloc (BE) in the EP elections.


In 2014, Marisa Matias also led the BE's list and got only 4.6% of the votes.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #381 on: November 11, 2018, 09:59:58 AM »
« Edited: February 01, 2019, 02:30:56 PM by Kalwejt »

Here's the recent Asselborn-Vilimsky spat:

Austria's Vilimsky brands Asselborn 'fanatic leftist'

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https://luxtimes.lu/european-union/35573-austria-s-vilimsky-brands-asselborn-fanatic-leftist
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #382 on: November 13, 2018, 04:15:18 AM »

First ten-ish MEPs have been designed by Politbüro of Greens in Germany.

https://www.gruene.de/ueber-uns/2018/ska-keller-und-sven-giegold-sind-das-gruene-spitzenduo-fuer-die-europawahl-2019.html
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DavidB.
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« Reply #383 on: November 13, 2018, 04:28:10 AM »

So Timmermans will run as the leading PvdA candidate after all, as this is apparently required. Fun.

Meanwhile, FVD leading candidate for the EP Derk Jan Eppink has harshly criticized ENF and says they are orienting themselves to join potential groups with the intention not to just block things, but to prevent Eurofederalism through compromise. Needless to say it's fair to assume that it's not going to be ENF, but probably ECR.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #384 on: November 13, 2018, 04:33:24 AM »

He shall rejoin his old Comrades. He used to be there as a Belgian MEP. Other possibility is that five-star-men's anti-establishment group.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #385 on: November 18, 2018, 03:07:18 PM »

Afd selected candidates only one candidate in top 10 from East. Strange.
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Umengus
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« Reply #386 on: November 19, 2018, 02:52:07 PM »

Ifop poll France (11/09-12, before "gillets jaunes" demonstrations")

RN 22 +2
Lrem 19 (-1)

LR 13 (-1)
FI 10 (-1)

EELV 7 (=)
PS 6 (=)
DLF 6 (-0,5)

UDI 4 (+1)
generations (hamon) 3 (=)
PC (communist) 2 (-1)



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DavidB.
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« Reply #387 on: December 06, 2018, 02:46:51 PM »

Polish Ruch Narodowy and Wolnosc are teaming up for the Euros. As far as I understand, RN is both ultra-Catholic and far-right nationalist whereas Wolnosc is ultra-libertarian. What are their chances of getting in? Would they be ENF material or are they too extreme even for them?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #388 on: December 06, 2018, 10:25:50 PM »

Polish Ruch Narodowy and Wolnosc are teaming up for the Euros. As far as I understand, RN is both ultra-Catholic and far-right nationalist whereas Wolnosc is ultra-libertarian. What are their chances of getting in? Would they be ENF material or are they too extreme even for them?
Pretty bad, IMO. Both organisations are arguably past their peak - Wolnosc is a dumpster fire internally and are burning through money at a ridiculous rate, and while Ruch Narodowy might still be a presence I'm not sure they ever recovered from the debacle that was their alliance with Kukiz.

Ruch Narodowy have strong ties to Jobbik and last time Korwin (under the KNP label) tried to play the Europarty game even Le Pen and Wilders found him too much of a loose cannon, so I doubt that they'd be acceptable now.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #389 on: December 09, 2018, 03:38:14 AM »

Ipsos poll, France, commissionned by LREM

- Yellow Vests list

LREM: 21%
RN: 14%
EELV: 13%
Yellow Vests: 12%
LR: 11%
LFI: 9%

-Without Yellow Vests list

LREM: 21%
RN: 17%
EELV: 14%
LR: 12.5%
LFI: 12%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #390 on: December 09, 2018, 10:39:08 AM »

Claudia Gamon has announced her candidacy for liberal NEOS frontrunner in the EP elections on Instagram today, which she'll easily win of course (NEOS has primaries).

Gamon is so far the only female frontrunner among Austrian parties and also the youngest with 29.



https://derstandard.at/2000093511215/Claudia-Gamon-will-ins-EU-Parlament
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #391 on: December 11, 2018, 04:55:21 AM »

Yellow Vests would be natural ally of five star men in next EP (they need allies).
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #392 on: December 11, 2018, 10:33:42 AM »


Is there any intention for such a list?
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Umengus
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« Reply #393 on: December 13, 2018, 05:17:52 AM »

IFOP poll

12/07-10

RN 24
LREM 18

LR 11 (!)
FI 9 (!!)
EELV 8,5
DLF (dupont aignan): 8 (!!!). NDA is the first candate to have strongly supported yellow jerseys.

PS 4,5
Generations (hamon): 3,5
UDI 3

les patriotes 1

So this poll contradicts the ispos poll. To noted that the ifop poll was done not for a party. Considering the current situation and even if the ipsos pollster is traditionally very good, I'm going with the ifop poll.

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Umengus
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« Reply #394 on: December 21, 2018, 05:14:08 PM »

IFOP poll

12/07-10

RN 24
LREM 18

LR 11 (!)
FI 9 (!!)
EELV 8,5
DLF (dupont aignan): 8 (!!!). NDA is the first candate to have strongly supported yellow jerseys.

PS 4,5
Generations (hamon): 3,5
UDI 3

les patriotes 1

So this poll contradicts the ispos poll. To noted that the ifop poll was done not for a party. Considering the current situation and even if the ipsos pollster is traditionally very good, I'm going with the ifop poll.



Confirmed by the last odoxa poll

RN 24
Lrem 19

FI 11,5
LR 8 (!!)
DLF 7
PS 7
EELV 6,5

Generation 3
Lasalle 3
udi 2,5
NPA 2,5
communist 2

So that seems clear that RN will be first and Lrem probably second. The rest is fluid. It would be funny if Dupont Aignan beats the LR list.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #395 on: December 22, 2018, 05:20:21 AM »

The election is in 5 months, the campaign hasn't started, we don't know who will lead the LREM list, ... I don't know how you can be sure that RN will be first with a 5 points lead in the middle of a political crisis for Macron.

A lot can happen in 5 months, especially we will have Brexit and its immediate consequences just 2 months ahead of the vote.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #396 on: December 22, 2018, 05:35:26 AM »

Dupont-Aignan entered electoral alliance with ECR what probably means that he will join ECR after the elections.
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
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« Reply #397 on: December 22, 2018, 06:43:31 AM »

And the FN were at 25% in 2014. So flatlining isn't really all that great given how unpopular Macron is, how the traditional parties habe imploded and how RWPPs have progressed elsewhere
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #398 on: December 22, 2018, 04:20:54 PM »

Why are all parties so fractured in France. I mean i just heard Ségolène Royal could form her independent list, but what do they try to achieve here. Try to gain momentum and try to form a new political party on the left which will arise from the ashes of PS, trying to get out of the PS (which is a sinking ship, and not being affiliated with it). I don't understand why they all reject alliances. Is there still a possibility that g.s and PCF form an alliance? And what's the difference between the left-wing parties, and especially PCF and FI?
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
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« Reply #399 on: December 22, 2018, 04:40:07 PM »

Why are all parties so fractured in France.
Egos
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Egos
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Egos
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Egos

Get the point?
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