European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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  European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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Author Topic: European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019  (Read 157276 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #450 on: January 19, 2019, 06:33:44 AM »

The ÖVP and Kurz have announced today that long-time Austrian EP delegation leader Othmar Karas will once again lead the party into the EP election in May as their lead candidate.

Karas was first elected in 1999 and is the most popular MEP in Austria. He's also a Liberal within the ÖVP, who often attacked the FPÖ and was even critical of Kurz on immigration and human rights on many occasions. But the threat that Karas could have split the ÖVP with a list of his own was too much of a danger for Kurz and he decided to once again nominate him as frontrunner.

Karas, a Romney/Kasich/Flake-type of politician within today's more conservative/populist ÖVP, will be supplemented with Karoline Edtstadler to head the ÖVP-ticket. Edtstadler (currently State Secretary within the Interior Ministry) is more of a modern ÖVP law-and-order type, highly skilled as a former European Court of Justice judge and more importantly: young and female.



https://derstandard.at/2000096602102/Karas-tritt-bei-EU-Wahl-wieder-fuer-OeVP-an
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #451 on: January 21, 2019, 11:23:35 AM »

The ÖVP has presented their list for the EP elections today:

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The ÖVP is expected to get 6 out of 19 seats, but they have a strict preference vote system for their candidates, so if the 10th on the list beats the 6th in terms of preference votes this person will be elected (despite not legally entitled to under Austrian EU election law). But the ÖVP has instructed their candidates to waive to the better candidate in such a case.

All candidates except Karas and Mandl would be new MEPs.

https://derstandard.at/2000096730639/OeVP-beschliesst-einstimmig-ihre-Kandidatenliste-fuer-die-EU-Wahl
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #452 on: January 21, 2019, 11:48:39 AM »

Picture of the ÖVP's Top-10 candidates for the EP + Chancellor Kurz + Manfred Weber:

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Ethelberth
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« Reply #453 on: January 22, 2019, 06:51:39 AM »

What kind ticket is used in Austrian elections. It is possible to mark a particular candidate or just a list. Are these markings counted by officials.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #454 on: January 22, 2019, 12:32:39 PM »

What kind ticket is used in Austrian elections. It is possible to mark a particular candidate or just a list. Are these markings counted by officials.

This was the ballot in 2014:

http://www.wahlinformation.at/bild/eu-wahl/Stimmzettel-EU-Wahl2014.jpg

You can either:

A) vote for a party by checking the circle on the left side.

B) write in a candidate on the right side or the number of that candidate on the party list

If you write in a candidate only without selecting a party, that will still count as a vote for the candidate's party. For example, if you write in Karas - you have voted for the ÖVP and handed Karas a preference vote. You cannot select ÖVP though and write in a candidate for the SPÖ for example. Preference votes then get counted as well.
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Diouf
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« Reply #455 on: January 23, 2019, 09:30:52 AM »

YouGov poll Denmark

Social Democrats 22.5% 3 seats
SPP 6.3% 1 seat

Liberals 19.6% 4 seats
Conservatives 4.8% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 4.5% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 8.0% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 5.4% 1 seat

Social Liberals 6.1% 1 seat
Alternative 3.7% 0 seats

DPP 18.0% 3 seats
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DavidB.
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« Reply #456 on: January 23, 2019, 10:12:33 AM »

YouGov poll Denmark

Social Democrats 22.5% 3 seats
SPP 6.3% 1 seat

Liberals 19.6% 4 seats
Conservatives 4.8% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 4.5% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 8.0% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 5.4% 1 seat

Social Liberals 6.1% 1 seat
Alternative 3.7% 0 seats

DPP 18.0% 3 seats
Are NB not standing or just not being polled?
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Diouf
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« Reply #457 on: January 23, 2019, 10:18:48 AM »

YouGov poll Denmark

Social Democrats 22.5% 3 seats
SPP 6.3% 1 seat

Liberals 19.6% 4 seats
Conservatives 4.8% 0 seats
Liberal Alliance 4.5% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 8.0% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 5.4% 1 seat

Social Liberals 6.1% 1 seat
Alternative 3.7% 0 seats

DPP 18.0% 3 seats
Are NB not standing or just not being polled?

Currently they are not on the list of eligible parties. They can become eligible in two ways. Be elected to the national parliament at least six weeks before election day, or collect 70.000 signatures at least eight weeks before the election. So if the general election is on or before 14 April, and they cross the threshold, they will be able to run. They are also trying to collect the signatures, but it does not seem to be where their focus is at and 70.000 is a high number (20.000 for general elections).
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Tirnam
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« Reply #458 on: January 23, 2019, 11:57:32 AM »

France, Elabe poll

- Without Yellow Vest list

LREM: 23.5% (+4 since november)
RN: 20.5% (+0.5)
LR: 12.5% (-2.5)
LFI: 9.5% (-1.5)
EELV: 9% (+2)
PS: 6% (-1)
DLF: 5% (-1.5)
Other lists under 5%

- Yellow Vets list

LREM: 22.5%
RN: 17.5%
Yellow Vest: 13%
LR: 11.5%
EELV: 8.5%
LFI: 8%
PS: 5%
Other lists under 5%
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Harlow
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« Reply #459 on: January 23, 2019, 06:07:38 PM »

Yellow Vests launch election list with 10 candidates so far.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ingrid-levavasseur-france-yellow-jackets-protesters-announce-candidates-for-european-election/
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Tirnam
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« Reply #460 on: January 24, 2019, 02:51:21 AM »

Of course it is a Yellow Vests list, not the Yellow Vests list (which will probably never exist). So don't assume that this list is polled at 13% right now.
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Mike88
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« Reply #461 on: January 24, 2019, 04:03:06 AM »

Portugal, Aximage poll:

Vote share %:

32.6% PS, 8/10 seats
19.8% PSD, 5/7
11.3% CDU 2/3
  8.4% CDS, 2/3
  6.3% BE, 2/3
  2.0% PAN, 0
  1.2% Alliance, 0
  3.0% Others/Invalid, 0
15.4% Undecided

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 January 2019. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #462 on: January 24, 2019, 10:53:50 AM »

So, if Brexit ends up being delayed, that would mean that the UK would participate in this election after all, correct? What would then happen to the new seat distribution?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #463 on: January 24, 2019, 01:52:08 PM »

So, if Brexit ends up being delayed, that would mean that the UK would participate in this election after all, correct? What would then happen to the new seat distribution?
I think we would still have the old seat distribution, and if the UK then does leave, the UK seats are reapportioned according to the current plan, which means the UK's MEPs are replaced by rEU MEPs.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #464 on: January 24, 2019, 03:29:47 PM »

Since we don't know for sure if the UK will have left by then, does the EU have plans for both options.  Also if Brexit is delayed but they still do leave, do MEPs from UK just vacate on that day will keeping the remaining seats the same until the next election?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #465 on: January 24, 2019, 04:02:17 PM »

These are unchartered waters so everything is speculative, but it seems that they have to hold an election if they're still in on E-day even if they leave later on (and even if we know when). However, ultimately any political agreement on this will count.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #466 on: January 26, 2019, 02:23:43 AM »

2 new Austria polls about the EP elections and the EU:

Profil/Unique Research poll about turnout

49% plan to vote in the EP election (actual turnout was 45% in 2014 and 46% in 2009)
46% will not vote
  5% undecided

ATV/Hajek/POS about the EU's image in Austria

57% say the EU-membership benefits Austria
26% say the EU-membership does not benefit Austria
17% undecided
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #467 on: January 26, 2019, 06:09:43 AM »

In Finland the EP situation is quite open, due the national elections only one month before. The parties have not dominated the candidates, but it is known that two major figures of Finnish politics  have decided to run. Mauri Pekkarinen has been leading politician of Centre since early 90ties (in parlament for 40 years) and Ville Niinistö, former leaders of  the Greens. about 10/14 MEPS are running again.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #468 on: January 26, 2019, 09:20:06 AM »

Claudia Gamon was officially elected frontrunner of the liberal NEOS today with 95.2% of the votes.



She's by far the youngest and the only woman as frontrunner among our parties (which is kinda sad).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #469 on: January 26, 2019, 11:53:24 AM »

NEOS could actually send 2 women to the EP (if they win 2 seats), because #2 on the list will be Karin Feldinger.





Here are the full results of the NEOS primary selection process:

https://vorwahl.neos.eu/euw-2019/results
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #470 on: January 26, 2019, 12:07:57 PM »

3/6 major Austrian parties have now officially released their candidate lists (ÖVP, SPÖ, NEOS).

Of the 11 MEPs these parties currently have in the EP, only 3 are running for re-election or have made the lists again (Othmar Karas-ÖVP, Lukas Mandl-ÖVP, Evelyn Regner-SPÖ).

The FPÖ and NOW are likely to present their lists next month, the Greens will do so in March.
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bigic
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« Reply #471 on: January 28, 2019, 05:24:25 PM »

2 Spitzenkandidaten for the Party of European Left - Violeta Tomić, an MP from Slovenia's "Left" (Levica) party and Nico Cué, the former secretary general of the Metalworkers' Union of Belgium.

https://www.total-slovenia-news.com/politics/2933-tomic-nominated-as-spitzenkandidaten-for-european-left-in-eu-elections
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #472 on: January 29, 2019, 03:16:40 AM »

2 Spitzenkandidaten for the Party of European Left - Violeta Tomić, an MP from Slovenia's "Left" (Levica) party and Nico Cué, the former secretary general of the Metalworkers' Union of Belgium.

https://www.total-slovenia-news.com/politics/2933-tomic-nominated-as-spitzenkandidaten-for-european-left-in-eu-elections

Funnily, neither Belgium nor Slovenia has GUE MPs in present parliament.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #473 on: January 29, 2019, 06:00:41 AM »

In Finland the EP situation is quite open, due the national elections only one month before.

I have a feeling that this will lead to a very low turnout in the EP election ("But I just voted last month!"), but we'll see...
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Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #474 on: January 29, 2019, 10:26:07 AM »

In Finland the EP situation is quite open, due the national elections only one month before.

I have a feeling that this will lead to a very low turnout in the EP election ("But I just voted last month!"), but we'll see...

I imagine the EU election will be used as leverage on government negotiations and/or as a "2nd round of the election" if the result is close or uncertain enough right?

Also, can't Finland simply delay the election and have it the same day as the EU election or is the parliamentary term over?
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