Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 09, 2019, 11:52:56 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Kutasoff Hedzoff)
  European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23] 24 25 26 27 28 ... 68 Print
Author Topic: European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019  (Read 102947 times)
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,728
Denmark
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #550 on: March 02, 2019, 02:25:51 pm »

The PM's son, Bergur Løkke Rasmussen, officially chosen as Liberal candidate. He should have decent chances of getting elected. Liberals are on 3-4 seats in the few polls, we have seen so far. And MEP Morten Løkkegaard and MP Søren Gade are the two only big names on the list.


Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,670
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #551 on: March 04, 2019, 03:54:15 am »

Portugal, Aximage poll from February:

Vote share %: (compared with the January poll)

34.1% PS (+1.5), 9 seats
24.8% PSD (+5.0), 6
  9.2% BE (+2.9), 2
  8.3% CDU (-3.0), 2
  8.1% CDS (-0.3), 2
  1.8% Alliance (+0.6), 0
  1.4% PAN (-0.6), 0
  7.0% Others/Invalid (+5.0), 0
  5.3% Undecided (-10.1)

38.2% Turnout (+2.2)

Poll conducted between 5 and 10 February 2019. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,971
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #552 on: March 05, 2019, 07:38:03 am »

Austrian teenagers are more motivated to vote than older people in the EU elections:

https://oegfe.at/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Grafiken-Schulumfrage_050319.pdf

Among all teenagers, 55% say they will certainly vote (which is higher than the 45-50% among the whole electorate, according to other polls).

The 16-18 year olds are the most motivated to vote (58% certain).

For 15-year olds, it's 51% and for 19-21 year olds it's 47%.

Good news for the Greens and NEOS.
Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,728
Denmark
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #553 on: March 05, 2019, 01:10:54 pm »

So strictly based on candidate quality, I would expect SPP, Liberals (if the lid stays on) and Liberal Alliance to do a bit better than they currently do. Probably DPP as well. I expect Red-Green Alliance to do poorer, which could aid People's Movement, SPP and Alternative. Social Democrats and Conservatives are not impressive either. Normally candidate quality matters quite a bit in European elections as the lead candidates get a lot of exposure, but if the general election is on the same day, then that effect could be diminished.

Norstat poll for Altinget & Jyllands-posten mostly, but not fully, supports my thinking on candidate quality.
The poll asks "which EP lead candidate would you prefer to vote for?"

Margrethe Auken (SPP) 15.0%
Morten Løkkegaard (Liberals) 11.7%
Peter Kofod Poulsen (DPP) 8.7%
Jeppe Kofoed (Social Democrats) 7.5%
Rina Ronja Kari (People's Movement Against the EU) 4.7%
Morten Helveg Petersen (Social Liberals) 4.6%
Mette Bock (Liberal Alliance) 3.2%
Pernille Weiss (Conservatives) 2.2%
Nikolaj Villumsen (Red-Green Alliance) 1.7%
Rasmus Nordquist (Alternative) 1.6%
Don't know 32.3%
Certain not to vote 6.7%

There must be quite a lot of uncertainty with so many doubters, but the poll suggests that SPP does have a very good lead candidate. A good result for the Liberals, particularly with the more popular Søren Gade lower on their list. Kofod likely to do well for DPP without reaching Messerschmidt standards. Social Democrats, Red-Greens and Conservatives with subpar candidates. I would have expected LA and Alternative lead candidates to do better, but their party's crises probably helps drag them down. And Bock can at least be happy that she is above Weiss, as the two small centre-right parties could easily battle it out for the last seat in the centre-right electoral alliance.
Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,728
Denmark
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #554 on: March 05, 2019, 03:29:49 pm »

Søren Pape, leader of the Danish conservatives, tweeted:"I have told Manfred Weber that he has the full support of Konservative to make Orban fall in line. Otherwise, he is out of EPP. It's as simple as that".
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #555 on: March 05, 2019, 04:46:50 pm »

Not directly related to the election, but today Emmanuel Macron published an open letter in newspapers all across the EU. Here's the English version (published by the Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/04/europe-brexit-uk
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,971
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #556 on: March 06, 2019, 04:08:08 am »

12 is very important in Austria for the EU elections ...

Next Tuesday, March 12, the election calendar will start.

Which means that at this day, people can already apply for postal ballots (which will be printed later of course, when we know how many parties have made the ballot).

Also next Tuesday, it's the last day for EU-citizens in Austria older than 16 on election day and with primary residence here to register for the election. Unlike all Austrian citizens, who are automatically registered to vote, EU-citizens who want to vote have to register on their own and sign a paper that they will only elect Austrian members to the EP ... to avoid double-voting in their home countries.

Also next Tuesday, the 1 month period for small parties will start to collect the 2.600 signatures to appear on the ballot for the EP elections. I assume the KPÖ (Communists) will make the ballot, but I'm not sure who else will because the Öxiteers are extremely split this time (3 fringe anti-EU groups have decided to run).

On April 12, the Interior Ministry will check the signatures and tell us which parties/lists have qualified to be on the ballot.

On May 12, the private PULS 4 TV will host their "elephant debate" of the 6 major frontrunners in the election. The public ORF debate date is not yet known.
Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,728
Denmark
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #557 on: March 06, 2019, 11:04:14 am »

DPP lead candidate Peter Kofod Poulsen, who first received media attention when he started the site "Report an Eastern European" where people could report suspicious behaviour from Eastern Europeans, is now called Peter Kofod Hristov after his marriage to a Bulgarian citizen.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,971
Finland


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #558 on: March 06, 2019, 11:20:04 am »

DPP lead candidate Peter Kofod Poulsen, who first received media attention when he started the site "Report an Eastern European" where people could report suspicious behaviour from Eastern Europeans, is now called Peter Kofod Hristov after his marriage to a Bulgarian citizen.
Classic Geert. In 2012 he started a hotline to report cases of nuisance by "MOE-landers": people from Central and Eastern Europe. Wilders is married to a Hungarian.
Logged
pilskonzept
Full Member
***
Posts: 158


Political Matrix
E: -2.67, S: -2.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #559 on: March 06, 2019, 04:50:43 pm »

DPP lead candidate Peter Kofod Poulsen, who first received media attention when he started the site "Report an Eastern European" where people could report suspicious behaviour from Eastern Europeans, is now called Peter Kofod Hristov after his marriage to a Bulgarian citizen.
Classic Geert. In 2012 he started a hotline to report cases of nuisance by "MOE-landers": people from Central and Eastern Europe. Wilders is married to a Hungarian.

To quote my old (and rather conservative) history teacher - "Left-wingers always think the same way. Right-wingers just don't think at all."
Logged
Tirnam
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 500
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #560 on: March 07, 2019, 12:23:28 pm »

France - Ifop tracking poll

LREM: 24%
RN: 22%
LR: 13%
EELV: 7.5%
FI: 7%
DLF: 5.5%
PS: 5%

Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #561 on: March 07, 2019, 12:40:23 pm »

Ok, so today El Mundo over here published a poll with several questions relating to the EU, done in 7 countries: Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Poland and Austria. Unfortunately, it's only in Spanish and quite long to translate, but still I guess I'll translate the winners of the most interesting questions IMO:

2: What are your country's biggest problems?

Italy: Unemployment (48%)
France: Lower salaries and purchasing power (34%)
Spain: Unemployment (54%)
Germany: Greater social inequality (35%)
Austria: Inmigration (39%)
Poland: Healthcare cuts (21%) (This one seems weird)

3: Some people believe that to see real change a revolution is needed. Others, that a reform program is better. Which one do you agree with the most?

(Reforms-Revolution-No change)

Italy: 69-21-3
France: 50-39-3
Spain: 80-13-3
Germany: 57-20-6
Austria: 62-14-3
Poland: 81-14-1

4: Regarding the following actions the EU could take on inmigration, which one do you agree with the most?

(Redistributing inmigrants along the EU and promoting integration - Greater border control and closing the door to illegal inmigration - None of the above)

Italy: 50-39-7
France: 26-54-13
Spain: 55-25-16
Germany: 34-48-7
Austria: 28-58-8
Poland: 26-63-6

5: Is there a strong conflict between citizens and politicians?
(Yes, strong+very strong; No, it's weak; no conflict)

Italy: 67-16-5
France: 82-7-2
Spain: 73-10-10
Germany: 66-16-3
Austria: 64-18-3
Poland: 50-25-4

6: According to you, the future of the EU should be:
(Strong integration and the United States of Europe - Strong integration according to what each country picks but with separate national governments - Greater autonomy for each member state with a return to national currencies but keeping free movement of people and goods - The end of the EU)

Or in other words: United States of Europe - Greater integration, like the status quo - "Europe of nations but don't break the EU" - Break the EU

Italy: 28-33-21-8
France: 15-35-18-17
Spain: 30-37-15-7
Germany: 18-41-14-11
Austria: 16-41-16-13
Poland: 13-32-41-7

7: If your government put in place protectionist measures, this would be:

(Generally negative - Generally positive - Mix of both)

Italy: 37-25-24
France: 30-27-28
Spain: 21-24-36
Germany: 33-16-30
Austria: 32-20-30
Poland: 29-33-26

8: Do you agree with the sentence "(Your nationality) First"?

(Totally/Partially agree - Totally/Partially disagree)

Italy: 64-32
France: 79-17
Spain: 48-46
Germany: 65-27
Austria: 78-18
Poland: 79-15

9: How close do you feel to populism?
(Close/very close - Far/very far)

Italy: 28-55
France: 31-50
Spain: 18-67
Germany: 16-56
Austria: 13-59
Poland: 16-64

10: What about sovereigntism?
(Close/Very close - Far/Very far)

Italy: 20-64
France: 24-56
Spain: 34-50
Germany: 45-28
Austria: 48-26
Poland: 70-18

11: What about nationalism?

Italy: 31-54
France: 41-41
Spain: 30-56
Germany: 23-55
Austria: 25-51
Poland: 17-67

Full poll: https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2019/03/07/5c80055f21efa0a6278b458b.html
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #562 on: March 07, 2019, 12:42:51 pm »

They also published voter intention polls for each of those 6 countries. Not sure how understandable they'll be but whatever, I think this can be understood? (even if party names are translated)





Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,971
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #563 on: March 07, 2019, 01:08:51 pm »

Thanks.

I was not aware that INSA also did polls in Austria.

It seems INSA polled both Austria and Germany. The national results make sense.
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,746


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #564 on: March 07, 2019, 01:50:18 pm »

Europe should be more like Spain imo
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,971
Finland


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #565 on: March 07, 2019, 01:58:56 pm »

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed Tongue
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,746


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #566 on: March 07, 2019, 02:09:21 pm »

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed Tongue

Grin

Depends how many people Pablo Iglesias manages to alienate in the next two months
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,038


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #567 on: March 07, 2019, 04:56:56 pm »

Its interesting that Spain is a little bit of a pro-EU, anti-populist outlier. Probably has something to do with Catalonia and other Separatists effect on the national culture, since none of the other countries polled have a national issue quite like Catalonia.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #568 on: March 07, 2019, 07:01:17 pm »

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed Tongue

Same Tongue

I mean, looking at the poll results, they are surprising but not overwhelmingly so.

Spain has always been more pro EU and pro inmigrant than average.

The rejected EU constitution passed 82-18 over here after all, albeit under abysmal turnout (43%). France rejected it 45-55 and the Netherlands rejected it 38-62). Even Luxembourg (a country you would never expect to be anti-EU in any way) only gave it a 57-43 vote! 67% support for further integration seems accurate.

The rise of Vox isn't based on inmigration as much as it is based on Catalonia (though inmigration is still a big platform issue, but not the main driving force for their initial rise I think). According to this same poll, inmigration is only a worry for 6% of Spaniards, compared to 15% of Italians, 23% of French, 30% of Germans or 39% of Austrians.

The fact that the question "Do you agree with "Spaniards first"? is a very divisive 48-46 is extremely telling.

Its interesting that Spain is a little bit of a pro-EU, anti-populist outlier. Probably has something to do with Catalonia and other Separatists effect on the national culture, since none of the other countries polled have a national issue quite like Catalonia.

I peronally find suprising the populist question considering first the rise of Podemos and now the rise of Vox. Not sure about the Catalonia relation but I guess it could be a factor. Could also be a factor for some of the inmigration questions, particularly the nationalism one.

The poll didn't publish proper crosstabs but one of the interesting things the article said is that Catalan/Basque nationalists do agree with nationalism as much as PP/Cs/Vox voters.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,971
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #569 on: March 08, 2019, 12:54:54 am »


It seems someone deleted my post (why ?), but I think you have read it already ...
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,746


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #570 on: March 08, 2019, 03:01:26 am »

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed Tongue

Same Tongue

I mean, looking at the poll results, they are surprising but not overwhelmingly so.

Spain has always been more pro EU and pro inmigrant than average.

The rejected EU constitution passed 82-18 over here after all, albeit under abysmal turnout (43%). France rejected it 45-55 and the Netherlands rejected it 38-62). Even Luxembourg (a country you would never expect to be anti-EU in any way) only gave it a 57-43 vote! 67% support for further integration seems accurate.

The rise of Vox isn't based on inmigration as much as it is based on Catalonia (though inmigration is still a big platform issue, but not the main driving force for their initial rise I think). According to this same poll, inmigration is only a worry for 6% of Spaniards, compared to 15% of Italians, 23% of French, 30% of Germans or 39% of Austrians.

The fact that the question "Do you agree with "Spaniards first"? is a very divisive 48-46 is extremely telling.
Yeah, this definitely isn't the first poll that has been posted showing the Spanish being more pro-EU, pro-immigrant and so on. IIRC, a part of it was down to having had a nationalist dictator within living memory; but also the rapid secularisation and decline of catholicism - which kind of has a neat parallel with the most progressive regions of France tending to be places like Brittany, which underwent a similar rapid secularisation towards the end of the 20th century.

And new right wing government or no, Spain (and Portugal) are still pretyy unusual in Europe in being places where left wing parties get 40-45% or more of the vote.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,971
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #571 on: March 08, 2019, 05:10:51 am »

New Austria EU poll (Research Affairs/Ö24):



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Rendi-rutscht-ab-FPOe-schon-Zweite/370910425
Logged
Ethelberth
Full Member
***
Posts: 172
Suriname


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #572 on: March 08, 2019, 09:08:03 am »

The classification used by Spanish poster is rather free. But if you know the parties they write about, it is possible to read.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,038


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #573 on: March 08, 2019, 12:19:37 pm »



Its interesting that Spain is a little bit of a pro-EU, anti-populist outlier. Probably has something to do with Catalonia and other Separatists effect on the national culture, since none of the other countries polled have a national issue quite like Catalonia.

I peronally find suprising the populist question considering first the rise of Podemos and now the rise of Vox. Not sure about the Catalonia relation but I guess it could be a factor. Could also be a factor for some of the inmigration questions, particularly the nationalism one.

The poll didn't publish proper crosstabs but one of the interesting things the article said is that Catalan/Basque nationalists do agree with nationalism as much as PP/Cs/Vox voters.

Well, when I think of Spanish populism I think of two things pre-VOX: Catalonian separatism and, as mentioned by another poster, Franco. It makes sense that the right would push back on the former, and the left on the latter. And now that VOX has risen, we can see they are no where near comparable to other populist parties on the EU issue: AfD, FN, PVV, UKIP - they all view the EU as a for to be scorned. For VOX, that for is internal - regionalism, separatism, and feminism. They are populists in regards to the deal Spanish issues of Franco and Catalonian.
Logged
Tirnam
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 500
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #574 on: March 08, 2019, 05:09:48 pm »

France - Ifop tracking poll

LREM: 24.5% (+0.5)
RN: 22%
LR: 13%
EELV: 7.5%
FI: 7%
DLF: 5% (-0.5)
PS: 5%

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23] 24 25 26 27 28 ... 68 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC