European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Zaybay]

When the issue of Brexit ends, so too does the Lib Dem and Brexit surge. The 3 are highly correlated, so I doubt that after the issue is solved(however it is) that the surge will continue.

[DavidB.]

When the issue of Brexit ends, so too does the Lib Dem and Brexit surge. The 3 are highly correlated, so I doubt that after the issue is solved(however it is) that the surge will continue.

That's an if, not a when.

[rc18]

When the issue of Brexit ends, so too does the Lib Dem and Brexit surge. The 3 are highly correlated, so I doubt that after the issue is solved(however it is) that the surge will continue.

Whatever happens the question of our relationship with the EU will carry on being a significant issue for decades. So no, it’s not ending any time soon.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.

If you have any questions about some issues do not hesitate to ask, but generally PE campaign is just prologue for Polish parliament elections.

[Lord Halifax]

I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.

If you have any questions about some issues do not hesitate to ask, but generally PE campaign is just prologue for Polish parliament elections.

How likely is it that Koalicja Europejska will get more votes than PiS?

[Walmart_shopper]

When the issue of Brexit ends, so too does the Lib Dem and Brexit surge. The 3 are highly correlated, so I doubt that after the issue is solved(however it is) that the surge will continue.

Whatever happens the question of our relationship with the EU will carry on being a significant issue for decades. So no, it’s not ending any time soon.

And it's also a foil for broader worldviews. What you think about Brexit automatically tells me what you think about a the world generally. So maybe Brexit does or doesn't happen, but the broader debates at the heart of Brexit (trade policy, immigration, foreign investment, globalism, nationalism) are only just getting heated up. Maybe the Lib Dems and the Farage clown car come and go, but they'll be embraces by the Tories and Labour all the same.

[Walmart_shopper]

Lib Dem S U R G E

I hope that this is a more fundamental political realignment, with Brexit Party and the Lib Dems becoming the 2 main parties.

I think it's more likely that the Tories co-opt the values and principles of the Brexit Party (Boris will help with that) with its base in the middle class Midlands and Labour becomes a London-centered globalist liberal party, essentially co-opting the LibDems.

Given the new membership of the party, and its central command, this is wishful thinking. It is London centric though.

That's nothing a few electoral disasters won't fix. And it seems that Sunday will be the first of those.

[Walmart_shopper]

I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.

If you have any questions about some issues do not hesitate to ask, but generally PE campaign is just prologue for Polish parliament elections.

How likely is it that Koalicja Europejska will get more votes than PiS?

And if PiS loses the European elections does that make a joint opposition list for the general election more likely? Does anyone believe that that can overcome the PiS this year?

[parochial boy]

When the issue of Brexit ends, so too does the Lib Dem and Brexit surge. The 3 are highly correlated, so I doubt that after the issue is solved(however it is) that the surge will continue.

Whatever happens the question of our relationship with the EU will carry on being a significant issue for decades. So no, it’s not ending any time soon.

And it's also a foil for broader worldviews. What you think about Brexit automatically tells me what you think about a the world generally. So maybe Brexit does or doesn't happen, but the broader debates at the heart of Brexit (trade policy, immigration, foreign investment, globalism, nationalism) are only just getting heated up. Maybe the Lib Dems and the Farage clown car come and go, but they'll be embraces by the Tories and Labour all the same.

And next to nothing about issues of distribution of wealth, housing, austerity, job precarity... Which were all factors that galvanised Labour's support in 2017. Those issues won't dissapear and Labour are hardly going to either want to, or benefit from, giving up on the electorate they won in 2017 by going off and aping the Lib Dems.

Bear in mind that London is a city with major social inequalities, it isn't just home to the mythical "metropolitan elites" of Notting Hill.

[DaWN]

Never mind complex sets of issues... you honestly think there's anything that will make the current Labour membership become even slightly less left-wing, never bloody mind embracing a Lib Dem position?

[DavidB.]

Kantar poll, Netherlands (compared to previous election):
VVD 5 (+2)
PvdA 5 (+2)
Forum voor Democratie 4 (+4)
GroenLinks 3 (+1)
CDA 2 (-3)
D66 2 (-2)
PVV 1 (-3)
SP 1 (-1)
CU-SGP 1 (-1)
PvdD 1 (-)
50Plus 1 (+1)

Ipsos:
VVD 5 (+2)
Forum voor Democratie 5 (+5)
PvdA 3 (-)
GroenLinks 3 (+1)
CDA 3 (-2)
D66 2 (-2)
PVV 2 (-2)
CU-SGP 2 (-)
SP 1 (-1)
PvdD 0 (-1)
50Plus 0 (-)

The election will take place tomorrow, of course. Most polling stations are opened from 7:30 AM until 9 PM. There will be an exit poll and a livestream at GeenStijl tv, where electoral geographer Josse de Voogd and pollster Maurice de Hond (Peil.nl), among others, will discuss the unofficial results.

[Walmart_shopper]

Never mind complex sets of issues... you honestly think there's anything that will make the current Labour membership become even slightly less left-wing, never bloody mind embracing a Lib Dem position?

No, it will definitely require new leadership.

[DaWN]

Never mind complex sets of issues... you honestly think there's anything that will make the current Labour membership become even slightly less left-wing, never bloody mind embracing a Lib Dem position?

No, it will definitely require new leadership.

The next leader will be just as, if not more, left-wing than Corbyn lol

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.

If you have any questions about some issues do not hesitate to ask, but generally PE campaign is just prologue for Polish parliament elections.

How likely is it that Koalicja Europejska will get more votes than PiS?

And if PiS loses the European elections does that make a joint opposition list for the general election more likely? Does anyone believe that that can overcome the PiS this year?

More votes? In my opinion really unlikely. But in term of seats difference will be not that harsh as compared to votes. Allocation of seats in EP Polish elections is a little bit weird because it is based on  Hare–Niemeyer method and d'Hondt. Poland have multiple electoral districts where there is no fixed amount of seats. So a lot of depends on turnout in the particular parts of country where Koalicja Europejska might have better results than PiS. Last local elections we have seen increase in turnout in big cities which tend to vote PO more than PiS. Still, I think PiS will win with a margin of ca. 4-5%   and have 1-2 more seats than KE. Also we must remember that Korwin and friends is still sort of unknown as polls often give them 4-6%, but I think the might end up even with 8-10% of votes.


As for the parliamentary elections as for now it is had to tell. I think as for the Senate elections there will be continuation of coalition because of single-member constituencies in which senators are elected. As for the Sejm SLD and PSL might dissent because for them continuation of such tight cooperation with PO would mean end of being independent political force. And not many people inside those parties would like that (especially PSL).

[vileplume]

Never mind complex sets of issues... you honestly think there's anything that will make the current Labour membership become even slightly less left-wing, never bloody mind embracing a Lib Dem position?

No, it will definitely require new leadership.

The next leader will be just as, if not more, left-wing than Corbyn lol

There aren't many Labour MPs to the left of Corbyn: McDonnell possibly but I can't see him taking over. Thus the next Labour leader will probably be at least a smidgen to the right of Corbyn and will almost certainly be much more Europhile. However regardless of who ends up succeeding him the Corbyn project is here to stay, the right of the party are a diminished proportion of the membership and the 'woke centrism' (as someone on here put it the other day) that many of them espouse is very much out of fashion.

[Beagle]

On a quick, mildly amusing note: Victor Ponta's PRO Romania party has undergone yet another metamorphosis - as a reminder, they were originally supposed to be a copy of LREM, with Ponta playing Macron.

In February they joined the European Democratic Party and announced plans to join ALDE
In late March Ponta announced his personal endorsement of Timmermans as EC President, which was followed in early April by an application to PES
As of today, PRO Romania (and Romania's Commissioner Corina Cretu) are proud ECR members

They are on track for 6-10% according to Romanian polls and 3 to 5 MEPs so this jump is not altogether insignificant.

[bigic]

What's exactly the difference between Pro Romania and PSD? Is Pro Romania even more corrupt than the PSD?

And according to Ponta himself, Pro is not in ECR?!
https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/ponta-denies-talks-with-ecr-flirts-with-socialists-and-macron/

[DavidB.]

Prediction Netherlands:
VVD 4 (+1)
PvdA 4 (+1)
FVD 4 (+4)
CDA 3 (-2)
GL 3 (+1)
D66 2 (-2)
CU-SGP 2 (-)
PVV 1 (-3)
SP 1 (-1)
PvdD 1 (-)
50Plus 1 (+1)
Denk 0, 1.5%
Volt 0, 1%

Turnout 40% (+3)

[Beagle]

What's exactly the difference between Pro Romania and PSD? Is Pro Romania even more corrupt than the PSD?

And according to Ponta himself, Pro is not in ECR?!
https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/ponta-denies-talks-with-ecr-flirts-with-socialists-and-macron/

Haha, I was not aware of this development. Sounds very plausible from what I know of Laurențiu Rebega for him to have announced his personal defection to ECR as the move of the entire party. Sorry for the misinformation. Presumably after the election everything will be up for grabs, especially since it seems Dragnea will blame Viorica Dăncilă for the impending PSD defeat and have yet another change of PMs. That is unless he actually gets imprisoned on Monday evening (the sentence in his appeal of his 3.5 year sentence is scheduled to be announced then), but that is unlikely for a number of reasons.

As to the corruption, as PRO Romania is not in power, the scales cannot compare. In my opinion, Dragnea is certainly more brazen than Ponta as PSD leader with regards to rule of law, but as to the kleptomania, Ponta may just have a slight edge.

[Classic Conservative]

I’m confused about how and when the results will be released. Are results being released tomorrow or Sunday?

[rc18]

I’m confused about how and when the results will be released. Are results being released tomorrow or Sunday?

Tomorrow some countries start polling day voting (some have already started early votes). Results will be released on Sunday.

[swl]

I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.

In France, there is a race for the 1st spot between LREM and Rassemblement National. Both will get more than 20% of the votes and RN seems to be leading the race. Then you have Les Republicans probably under 15%. No one else is sure to get more than 10%. In particular the left is very divided with 3 parties polling between 5 and 10% and 2 more just below 5%. There is also Debout la France (soverainist right) who is fighting to reach the 5% threshold. No else will reach 5%, which is the threshold to enter the Parliament.

[CumbrianLefty]

There have been several EU polls for the UK published in the last 24 hours.

Though some others are close, there is still only one pollster who has the LibDems ahead of Labour.

YouGov (for it is they) are going to look either very prescient or highly stupid come Monday morning.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Some divisions in the PS about a future PES+ALDE alliance in the EP.

António Costa's recent dinner with Emmanuel Macron and his "wink" to the liberals in the EP parliament, is creating some discomfort in some parts of the PS. Pedro Nuno Santos, minister of infrastructures and one of the possible successors of Costa as PS leader, says that Liberals and Socialists should never aligned and they should always be in separate sides. A statement that contradicts what Costa said alongside Macron, i which he said that the Socialists should "create a big alliance between democrats and progressives". 

[Former President tack50]

Portugal: Some divisions in the PS about a future PES+ALDE alliance in the EP.

António Costa's recent dinner with Emmanuel Macron and his "wink" to the liberals in the EP parliament, is creating some discomfort in some parts of the PS. Pedro Nuno Santos, minister of infrastructures and one of the possible successors of Costa as PS leader, says that Liberals and Socialists should never aligned and they should always be in separate sides. A statement that contradicts what Costa said alongside Macron, i which he said that the Socialists should "create a big alliance between democrats and progressives". 

I don't think the S&D and ALDE will merge. And as for an alliance, the EU has been controled by a Grand coalition of S&D-ALDE-EPP pretty much forever.

Though I do wonder if the Portuguese PS might be one of the more left wing groups in the S&D group