European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The European elections have begun.
The Netherlands and the United Kingdom are voting today.
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol opened the polling station at 5 am local time.
Since 6:30 am the Amsterdamers have been able to vote at the poll site at the city's main station.
(Thus, the airport and the train station are something like The EU's Dixville Notch and Millsfield, respectively. )

[parochial boy]

I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.

In France, the media has framed it as a battle between the "Progressives" (Macron) and the "Sovereigntists" (Le Pen), which is really a case of bad media reporting because they'll get less than half the vote combined, but whatever.

Overall, virtually evreyone is losing of stagnant compared to the 2017 presidentials - which doesn't seem to make sense mathematically, but there you go.

RN seem to be on the way to being largest party, which will mean inevitable narratives about a "populist surge" even though they might actually drop a bit on 2014.

LREM, sorry "Renaissance" are led by Nathalie Loiseau, a former director of ENA - which basically says all you need to know. They were polling roughly equal with RN, but seem to have dropped behind in the last few days.

LR are polling in the low teens, basically because they haven't got anything relevant to say to anyone. Last I heard, they were having an internal bicker about the "Vincent Lambert" case - the story of whether or not to end life support for a guy who has been in a non-vegetative state for the last 10 years.

The left are split all over the place - Méluche has ruined a lot of his popularity with missing the boat on the gilets jaunes, various scandals, aggresive behaviour and, well being Jean-Luc Mélenchon. LFI seem to be on track for about 8%.

The Socialists list is being led by Raphael Glucksmann a public "intellectual" who isn't even actually a member of the party. This was basically a desperate dice roll by the PS to get a bit of attention/energy, that hasn't really worked as they're polling ~5% and around 50:50 to actually make the threshold. The logic was that their current president, Olivier Faure is basically an unknown, and very few PS bigwigs were willing to put themselves forward or lack public goodwill, so they went with Glucksmann (although they should have tried harder to convince Taubira to stand, she at least energises left wing voters).

Greens polling around 7-8%, which looks good; but less good when you compare it to 2009 or even 2014. Story of a missed opportunity given the existing debate around the climate and shambolic state of the rest of the left. But, well, Jadot is no Cohn-Bendit or Hulot so they don't have the big hitters they might once have had.

Among those who will almost certainly miss the threshold - Hamon has dissapeared without a trace; as have the Gilets Jaunes lists. Debout La France had a brief surge earlier in the year off the back of being one of the earliest figures to support the gilets jaunes, but has since dissapeared. Finally the PCF, led by Ian Brossat (a deputy mayor of Paris), have made their first actual attempt at a (non-Méluche based) national campaign in what feels like forever. They're currently around 3%, which gives you the feeling that this might be their last ever campaign too.

Overall conclusion - evreyone is unpopular, no-one is even taking advantage of that because well, all the people who might be able to are just as unpopular themselves

[Mike88]

Portugal - Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

32.4% PS (+2.1), 7/8 seats
24.8% PSD (-3.2), 6/7
12.9% BE (+1.6), 2/3
  7.1% CDU (+0.6), 1/2
  6.7% CDS (-0.9), 1/2
  3.3% PAN (+1.6), 1
  2.1% PDR (+0.4), 0/1
  1.2% Alliance (new), 0
  1.0% BASTA! (new), 0
  8.5% Others/Invalid, 0

Poll conducted between 10 and 19 May 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[YL]

There have been several EU polls for the UK published in the last 24 hours.

Though some others are close, there is still only one pollster who has the LibDems ahead of Labour.

YouGov (for it is they) are going to look either very prescient or highly stupid come Monday morning.

When one poll (YouGov) shows the Brexit Party on 37%, Labour on 13% and the Tories on 7% and another (Kantar) shows the Brexit Party on 27%, Labour on 24% and the Tories on 13% someone is going to be wrong.  (The others are generally somewhere between these two extremes, though YouGov really is on its own with its low Labour shares.)

[DavidB.]

The weather is absolutely lovely, but at 10:30 AM, turnout was 7%, lower than last time: 8% in 2014 and 9% in 2009.

Final turnout in 2014 was 37.3%, in 2009 it was 36.8%.

Turnout in Utrecht right now is 11.7%, in The Hague 9.5%, in Rotterdam 8.4%, in Purmerend 8.4% in Eindhoven 9.5%, and in Groningen 10.2%.

[DaWN]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/deniedmyvote-eu-citizens-complain-of-being-turned-away-at-polling-stations-in-european-elections-a4149581.html

Oh look Electoral fraud How thoroughly and distressingly unsurprising

[beesley]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

[Former President tack50]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

Wait, Commonwealth citizens can vote in EU elections? I thought that was reserved to British and EU citizens?

[DavidB.]

Turnout in the Netherlands was 14% at 1:30 PM compared to 15% in 2014. I still suspect turnout will be higher than last time, but it may also very well not be. The Netherlands will remain one of the two or three EU countries with the biggest turnout gaps between general and European elections.

I'm going to have a late lunch break and vote for FVD (twice) now.

[Walmart_shopper]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

[cp]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

Actually, it's the UK's laws that entitle Commonwealth citizens to vote in UK elections, provided they are resident on a valid visa.

And at least in this case, it's a wash. I'm also a Commonwealth citizen and I cast my proxy vote today (or rather, had my mother-in-law cast it). Had to hold my nose to vote Lib Dem, but Labour just isn't pushing hard enough to kill off Brexit. Fingers crossed it works!

[Walmart_shopper]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

Actually, it's the UK's laws that entitle Commonwealth citizens to vote in UK elections, provided they are resident on a valid visa.

And at least in this case, it's a wash. I cast my proxy vote today (or rather, had my mother-in-law cast it). Had to hold my nose to vote Lib Dem, but Labour just isn't pushing hard enough to kill off Brexit. Fingers crossed it works!

Does this include general elections, too?

[cp]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

Actually, it's the UK's laws that entitle Commonwealth citizens to vote in UK elections, provided they are resident on a valid visa.

And at least in this case, it's a wash. I cast my proxy vote today (or rather, had my mother-in-law cast it). Had to hold my nose to vote Lib Dem, but Labour just isn't pushing hard enough to kill off Brexit. Fingers crossed it works!

Does this include general elections, too?

Yes. Inexcusably, it's only EU citizens who are not allowed to vote in GE's in the UK, no matter what. This leads to the preposterous situation where EU citizens who have been resident in the UK for decades can't vote for their MPs while Canadians in the UK on a 1 year student visa can.

[YL]

There have been several EU polls for the UK published in the last 24 hours.

Though some others are close, there is still only one pollster who has the LibDems ahead of Labour.

YouGov (for it is they) are going to look either very prescient or highly stupid come Monday morning.

When one poll (YouGov) shows the Brexit Party on 37%, Labour on 13% and the Tories on 7% and another (Kantar) shows the Brexit Party on 27%, Labour on 24% and the Tories on 13% someone is going to be wrong.  (The others are generally somewhere between these two extremes, though YouGov really is on its own with its low Labour shares.)

Since I posted this I've become aware of an Ipsos-MORI poll which also put the Lib Dems second, on 20%, ahead of Labour with 15%.  So YouGov are no longer on their own.

We'll see...

[beesley]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

Actually, it's the UK's laws that entitle Commonwealth citizens to vote in UK elections, provided they are resident on a valid visa.

And at least in this case, it's a wash. I cast my proxy vote today (or rather, had my mother-in-law cast it). Had to hold my nose to vote Lib Dem, but Labour just isn't pushing hard enough to kill off Brexit. Fingers crossed it works!

Does this include general elections, too?

Yes. Inexcusably, it's only EU citizens who are not allowed to vote in GE's in the UK, no matter what. This leads to the preposterous situation where EU citizens who have been resident in the UK for decades can't vote for their MPs while Canadians in the UK on a 1 year student visa can.

At least in my case, my residence here is a longer term job, I've lived here for years. But I agree, the laws should be modified.

[swl]

There are reports of many administrative mistakes in the UK that led EU citizens legally entitled to vote being prevented from doing so. If that's big enough I wonder if the elections will be annulled.

[Lord Halifax]

Turnout in the Netherlands was 14% at 1:30 PM compared to 15% in 2014. I still suspect turnout will be higher than last time, but it may also very well not be. The Netherlands will remain one of the two or three EU countries with the biggest turnout gaps between general and European elections.

I'm going to have a late lunch break and vote for FVD (twice) now.

Enjoy your meal. When are the results expected?

[rc18]

There are reports of many administrative mistakes in the UK that led EU citizens legally entitled to vote being prevented from doing so. If that's big enough I wonder if the elections will be annulled.

No.

[beesley]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

Wait, Commonwealth citizens can vote in EU elections? I thought that was reserved to British and EU citizens?

Commonwealth Citizens with UK long-term residence can vote in elections. I've lived here for years.

[DavidB.]

Turnout in the Netherlands was 14% at 1:30 PM compared to 15% in 2014. I still suspect turnout will be higher than last time, but it may also very well not be. The Netherlands will remain one of the two or three EU countries with the biggest turnout gaps between general and European elections.

I'm going to have a late lunch break and vote for FVD (twice) now.

Enjoy your meal. When are the results expected?

Thanks.

9 PM exit poll at the NOS. All evening livestream to a live show hosted by GeenStijl.nl, with electoral geography expert Josse de Voogd and pollster Maurice de Hond (Peil.nl). While the official results will only be released on Sunday, hundreds of volunteers are writing down the official results at their polling stations and submitting them to GeenStijl today (which is legal), allowing De Hond to make an estimate and De Voogd to interpret the geographical patterns. They did this last time around too, and it was very accurate.

At 3:30, turnout was 19% nationally, on par with 2014.

Right now, turnout is 20.7% in The Hague, 17.9% in Rotterdam and 23.3% in Utrecht.

[Walmart_shopper]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

Actually, it's the UK's laws that entitle Commonwealth citizens to vote in UK elections, provided they are resident on a valid visa.

And at least in this case, it's a wash. I cast my proxy vote today (or rather, had my mother-in-law cast it). Had to hold my nose to vote Lib Dem, but Labour just isn't pushing hard enough to kill off Brexit. Fingers crossed it works!

Does this include general elections, too?

Yes. Inexcusably, it's only EU citizens who are not allowed to vote in GE's in the UK, no matter what. This leads to the preposterous situation where EU citizens who have been resident in the UK for decades can't vote for their MPs while Canadians in the UK on a 1 year student visa can.

At least in my case, my residence here is a longer term job, I've lived here for years. But I agree, the laws should be modified.

Long term residency should probably convey the right to vote no matter if you're a part of the British Commonwealth. The absurdity is the rando Canadian or Australian or whatever who gets to vote possibly after being in the country a week.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

just voted for a non-Labour Party for the first time ever (the Greens, even though I don't like them very much, given their blatant hypocrisy in reinventing themselves as Eurofederaliats after calling for the EU referendum in 2015). I just want the leadership to have a bit of a kick in the nads (although the Corbynistas will probably still claim he isn't our biggest millstone  at present)

[Tender Branson]

My district election commission notified me by e-mail that my postal ballot was received and registered for counting on May 14.

+1 vote for NEOS.

[DavidB.]

Turnout at 5:30 was 24%, on par with 2014.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 5:30 was 24%, on par with 2014.

Sad.

I was hoping for a Europe-wide uptick in the turnout numbers.

But if it's not the case in the Netherlands, it probably is not the case anywhere else ... (except maybe for the UK and Austria, where the Brexit and recent Ibiza-Gate dominates).